Opening Day came and went without Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers or Aaron Judge signing contract extensions. All three players said they would halt contract talks once the season began, so as to not be a distraction -- to themselves, and to their teammates.
Each case is a little different, of course: Bogaerts can opt-out, and almost certainly will; Judge is a free agent after 2022; and Devers is under control through the end of 2023.
Still, it's a bit off that three franchise-level players failed to get extensions done with two of the most prosperous franchises in the game.
What does that say about the industry, the changes taking place in free agency, and about how the Red Sox and Yankees are currently doing business?
Some thoughts:
* Bogaerts appeared displeased with the breakdown in the talks, and it's not hard to understand why. Bogaerts took a decidedly below-market deal in 2019, and signed a club-friendly deal -- against the urging of his agent, Scott Boras. Bogaerts has done nothing but be an outstanding player (best OPS for all shortstops since 2018) and solid citizen/representative of the Red Sox throughout his career. He's been part of two World Series championship teams. And he did everything he could to convince Trevor Story to sign with the Red Sox, even though that addition potentially threatened his position while simultaneously providing the Sox with leverage that could work against Bogaerts getting a new deal.
* Devers seemed more sanguine about the talks, which is in keeping with his personality. He's more happy-go-lucky than Bogaerts in general. It would also seem that the Sox have placed more of a priority in extending Devers than they have Bogaerts. The reasoning is obvious -- Devers is about four years younger, and his ceiling is higher. Plus, the Sox do have Story to handle short, while Marcelo Mayer may only be three or so seasons away from contributing.
* Piecing together some reporting, it would seem that the Red Sox were willing to give Devers a deal that was better than the one Cleveland gave to Jose Ramirez earlier this week (five years, $124 million). That's an AAV of $24.8 million, but remember, too, that Ramirez (who will turn 30 in September) is closer in age to Bogaerts (30 in October) than he is to Devers (26 in October). And Cleveland is not Boston, when it comes to payroll flexibility. It would seem any extension for Devers would have to start with an AAV of $30 million. Then comes the interesting part: for how long?
* The Red Sox -- and Bogaerts and Devers, too -- can all say that their contractual limbo won't be a distraction this season. But you can almost hear the clock ticking as each moves closer to free agency and the prospect of leaving Boston. And heaven help the Red Sox if they get Fort Myers next February without Devers signed past next year. You won't be able to speak the player's name without hearing "Mookie Betts,'' mentioned in the same breath. It was February of 2020, when, convinced that they either couldn't or wouldn't satisfy his contractual demands, that the Sox began auctioning Betts to the highest bidder. And speculation will begin that Devers will soon experience the same fate.
* It's not reasonable to expect that a franchise -- even one as profitable as the Red Sox -- to retain every star player when it comes to free agency. That's neither feasible nor smart business. In some cases, it's best to let some players walk. I expect this will be the case, for instance, with both Christian Vazquez and J.D. Martinez, each for different reasons. And I think most fans will understand that thinking. But to be in a position where the Red Sox might lose three cornerstone players, each in the prime of their careers, to leave in the span of four years, will not go over well with the fan base. Nor should it.
* This is mostly inside baseball, and perhaps doesn't mean much in the big scheme of things, but the Yankees were surprisingly transparent in the way they handled the Judge negotiations. They publicly made it known in late March that they would be presenting Judge with a contract extension, then, after talks broke down, disclosed their offer, right down the dollars and details: seven years at $30.5 million per season. (That doesn't count the resolution of the salary arbitration case that will soon determine his 2022 salary). Like the Red Sox, the Yankees are facing some unrest among their fans because of their refusal to go over the luxury tax limit the last few years. (And like the Sox, they'll go back over the first threshold this season). The Yankees are suddenly No. 2 in payroll in their own city, with Mets owner Steve Cohen spending freely enough serve as inspiration for the creation of a fourth threshold level in the new CBA. Judge probably wasn't thrilled that the Yankees announced their offer, and there's a dangerous subtext here, that suggests: "Look how much money we offered him. He must be very greedy!'' But it does inoculate the team from any suggestion that they weren't willing to pay up.
* Here's an interesting scenario: Let's say Bogaerts decides to opt out, and signs elsewhere this fall, and the Yankees fail to come to agreement with Judge. Is there a scenario where the two could end up switching teams? Judge would be an intriguing addition to Fenway and could knock down The Wall with line drives. Plus, if there's a position where the Sox do not have a lot of close-to-the-majors prospects, it's the outfield. (Their best bet is 21-year-old Gilberto Jimenez, now in Single-A ball). Judge, who's an excellent outfielder, would fill right field for a while. But if the Sox have some concerns about a mega-extension for Bogaerts, who's been incredibly durable, why would they spend more on a player who's a year older and has played more than 112 games just twice? As for the Yankees, they stayed out of the shortstop market this past winter because they have two elite shortstop prospects in their pipeline and didn't want to block either. Unless, that is, they envision Bogaerts at either second or third. Neither switch is likely. But's it's interesting to think about.
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With all the focus on the composition of the Red Sox' 28-man (for now) Opening Day roster, the news of minor league assignments tends to get lost.
But especially given the enhanced quality of the team's minor league system, it'll be worth following the progress of a number of the organization's top prospects.
Here's a look at where some noteworthy players began for the 2022 season.
WORCESTER (AAA): Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Jeter Downs, Connor Wong, Josh Winckowski, Connor Seabold.
As is typical these days, the Triple-A roster is a blend of prospects finishing their development before getting a promotion to the big leagues and some veteran players who've had some success in the majors and are looking for another opportunity while providing some minor league depth. In the latter category, there's Derek Holland, Yolmer Sanchez and Rob Refsnyder.
PORTLAND (AA): David Hamilton, Brayan Bello, Jay Groome, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy, Frank German, Jake Wallace.
Hamilton, obtained in the Hunter Renfroe-Jackie Bradley Jr. deal, is highly athletic with plus speed and will bear watching. Otherwise, the SeaDogs' strength will be pitching, with Bello, Groome, Walter and Murphy in the rotation and German and Wallace in the bullpen.
If you want to see the best pitching in the system, then head to Hadlock Field. The rotation, which includes Groome, Walter and Murphy is a highly promising one.
GREENVILLE (High A): Gilberto Jimenez, Nick Yorke, Alex Binelas, Ceddanne Rafaela
Meanwhile, if it's high-ceiling position players you seek, then Greenville is the place to be. Jimenez is insanely athletic in the outfield and Rafaela is a special defender. Yorke may be the best pure hitter in the system and Binelas, the other prospect in the Renfroe-Bradley Jr. swap, has immense power potential.
SALEM (Low A): Marcelo Mayer, Blaze Jordan, Niko Kavadas, Wikelman Gonzalez
More great positional talent here, led by Mayer, who is either the top prospect in the system or No. 2 (behind Casas). Plus, exceptional power potential for both Jordan and Kavadas. Gonzalez has quietly emerged as one of the most talented arms in the system.
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After a 99-day lockout and highly contentious negotiations, the new collective bargaining agreement, secured in March, was supposed to address a number of issues, among them service time manipulation and tanking.
If the first few weeks of the 2022 season, the new CBA is batting .500.
On the matter of service time manipulation, incentives were included to help convince teams to have their best prospects start the season on the major league roster, rather than wait a few weeks to gain an additional year of control, or, a few months, to escape an extra year of salary arbitration.
(Teams can earn additional bonus draft selections if their players are chosen Rookie of the Year, among other measures put in place).
It seems to have worked. The following top minor leaguers all began the season on major league rosters: Bobby Witt Jr. (Kansas City), Julio Rodriguez (Seattle), Spencer Torkelson (Detroit), C.J. Abrams (San Diego), Hunter Greene (Cincinnati), Joey Bart (San Francisco), Josh Lowe (Tampa Bahen y).
In the past, some or all of those would have been optioned to Triple-A, then promoted when the (service time) coast was clear. Now, they're all in the big leagues, a sign that teams (properly motivated) are truly putting their best talent on the field.
The news, however, is not as inspiring when it comes to tanking and competing.
Four teams began the year with payrolls under $60 million: Cleveland ($58.9 million); Baltimore ($58.4 million); Oakland ($45.8 million) and Pittsburgh ($45.6 million).
Keep in mind that all 30 teams receive well over $60 million in national media rights fees before they sell a single ticket, or local sponsorship, or count their own local media deals. And it certainly doesn't begin to count revenue sharing money, which can be worth tens of millions more.
If a team is spending below $60 million on player payroll, they're not only stealing from their fan base, but also, quite literally, their fellow franchises, who are contributing to the revenue-sharing kitty.