A bit of uncertainty accompanies each baseball season. That's part of the fun.
We don't know what we don't know at the start of a 162-game schedule. Will the hotshot rookie from the previous season keep improving or stall out? How about the veteran, who has struggled in recent years, but swears he now has it all figured out?
We can't account for injuries, or under-performance. We don't know who's going to overachieve and we can't pretend to know what the trade deadline will bring.
But this 2022 Red Sox season seems more unknowable than most.
Is this a team in transition, soon to be without not only left infield mainstays Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, but another handful of potential free agents? Are the prospects that have attracted attention in the minors ready to step in and contribute?
The improvement in the team's minor league system would seem to be legitimate. How much will that inform the organization's decisions to extend some of the players in their final year of control? Could some of the prospects themselves be traded, to keep the contention window open a bit longer.
Complicating matters more than a little is the team's recent boom-bust history. In the span of just three recent seasons -- 2018 through 2020 -- the Red Sox checked every one of the potential boxes, from world champions (2018) to run-of-the-mill (2019) to utter embarrassment.
Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has stressed the need for sustainability -- that is, the ability to contend for a title on an annual basis -- but, as we've already seen, that requires some deft juggling.
As good as the Red Sox were a year ago, winning 92 games and advancing to within two games of the American League pennant -- there isn't a single position on the field currently set for the foreseeable future. Not one. Yes, Trevor Story has a newly-signed six-year deal, but where will he be playing a year from now? At second base? Or back at his natural position, replacing Bogaerts?
Perhaps that's a commentary on MLB roster-building in 2022, where nothing is guaranteed from season to season except more change. Or maybe it's an outgrowth of Bloom having grown up in the Tampa Bay system, where change isn't just inevitable, it's a survival tactic.
This season could well be the final year in Boston for Nate Eovaldi, Kike Hernandez, Christian Vazquez, J.D. Martinez and Bogaerts. Or, some could be extended. Either way, the deck chairs will be furiously re-arranged before the start of 2023.
For now, the Red Sox have a competitive roster -- not perfect by any stretch, and sure to undergo revisions as the season evolves. The lineup is great, the defense appears somewhat improved, the rotation is competent and the bullpen very much a work in progress.
We spoke to some talent evaluators who saw the Red Sox this spring to offer their thoughts as we break down the roster.
ROTATION
Nate Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill.
Still to come: Chris Sale, James Paxton.
For the third straight season, Eovaldi becomes the accidental Opening Day starter, filling in (again) for the injured Sale. Eovaldi enjoyed possibly his best season in the big leagues last year, and not coincidentally, it was his healthiest. He has a five-pitch mix, is superbly conditioned and has a future contract for which to pitch. On a perfect team, he'd be a No. 2, which is what he'll be by mid-June when Sale returns.
Pivetta needs to be more consistent. There were 11 starts last year in which he pitched more than five innings and gave up two earned runs or fewer. There were also games in which he needed nearly 30 pitches to get out of an early-inning jam. If Pivetta can become more efficient in the early parts of games, it would go a long way toward lifting him to a new level.
Houck's chief issue is the number of walks he racks up, thereby limiting the length of his outings. Between a plus fastball and a wipeout slider, Houck has the stuff and he's gaining confidence in his splitter, which he now throws to both lefties and righties. One question: how will he handle the workload? Because he was optioned seven times last season and also missed time with a forearm issue, Houck contributed just 90 innings between Boston and Worcester. Can he make the jump to 150-plus innings this season?
The Red Sox believe that a new pitch mix in September made Wacha an intriguing buy-low candidate and will apply some data to make sure that his usage is similar this season. Skepticism remains, since Wacha has had a sub-4.00 ERA just once since 2015 and has thrown more than 140 innings in that span.
Hill enters the season as the oldest pitcher in the game but, like a lot of veterans, has learned how to change speeds and keep the ball out of the middle of the plate. He need only keep the Sox in games for five innings to prove useful.
SCOUTS' TAKE
"Eovaldi's got good stuff. He's one of the few (starters) who can get it up into the upper 90s, but he's got other pitches, too. It's about his command. He's got to locate, because his fastball is pretty straight. He knows how to pitch, change speeds. ... Pivetta's got a good breaking ball and pretty good fastball. To me, he's better off being (lower in the rotation), but that will happen eventually. ... Hill scares me a little. He knows how to pitch, but he can't get out of jams because he doesn't have that 'out' pitch. But he knows how to move the fastball around and keep them off the curveball. ... I've always liked Wacha, but he doesn't have the same crispness to his stuff that he did when he was younger. ... I think Houck will just keep getting better. Young guys like him tend to overthrow because they think they have to get swings and misses all the time, and because it's max effort, they tend to fall behind and be 2-0 and 3-1 all the time. Work the corners and stay from the fat part of the bat and he'll be fine. That's the art of pitching and a lot of guys don't learn that until 2-3 years in the big leagues.''
BULLPEN
Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Hirokazu Sawamura, Jake Diekman, Matt Strahm, Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford, Austin Davis, Ryan Danish, Phillps Valdez.
Never mind "Who's on first?'' For the Red Sox, it's more about "Who's got the ninth?'' For the second time in his last three seasons in the Boston dugout, Alex Cora has created a guessing game about the identity of his closer, promising that all will be revealed in Friday's opener against the Yankees -- assuming the Sox have the lead.
All signs point to Barnes, who was brilliant in the first half of last season before bottoming out in the second half. This spring, his velocity was alarmingly low, though some video review may have fixed that in the last few days.
The Sox have more lefties in their pen than at any other time in recent memory, led by newcomers Jake Diekman and Matt Strahm. Diekman can be a strikeout machine, but needs to minimize walks (5.0 per 9 IP over his career). Strahm is healthy again and may be a nice under-the-radar addition.
Sawamura has shown a propensity for giving up homers, and that's a concern in high-leverage spots. The Sox are trying to make sure he throws his split for strikes more, and not just as a chase pitch.
Whitlock was a revelation as a rookie, and may have been the staff's best overall pitcher. Now, they'll use him more. Can he maintain that same level of dominance if he goes over 100 innings? In a perfect world, Crawford would be this year's version of Whitlock -- a hard-throwing young pitcher who comes out of nowhere to deliver multi-inning relief stints. But that may be asking for too much.
SCOUTS' TAKE
"For now, the bullpen is a concern. ... Whitlock is so valuable, being able to throw two-three innings a few times a week. ... Davis is just another guy to me. He doesn't have a plus-pitch. He made the staff because he's out of options. ... If Barnes gets some fastball life back, he'll be OK. I think you need a guy you can count on to be your ninth-inning guy, and that lets everything else fall into place. ... Brasier seems to be inconsistent, but he's not a bad seventh-inning guy. ... Robles has a good arm and you can pitch him into the ground. He's very durable.''
INFIELD
Bobby Dalbec, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers.
BENCH: Jonathan Arauz, Christian Arroyo, Travis Shaw.
The uncertain futures of Devers and Bogaerts was one of the biggest storylines of the spring, but once the season gets underway, one way or another, that will fade into the background.
From an offensive standpoint, it's difficult to imagine a better left side of the infield anywhere else in either league.
Devers seems poised for a huge year -- if Grapefruit League play suggests anything. He smoked everything (six homers) and seems already locked in, a change for a player who has traditionally started slowly. He also put a lot of effort into improving defensively, and the Sox are confident that will yield dividends.
Bogaerts will be motivated to have another huge year, and he, too, is working to improve his defense. The hope is that a new pre-pitch setup will allow him to get better jumps on balls and improve his range. He remains surehanded on balls to which he gets.
In signing with the Sox, Story has committed to playing second base for at least this season. It may be a little rocky in the first month, since he lost time in spring training and will need to get acclimated to a position he hasn't played since the minor leagues. Still, there's little reason to doubt that his athleticism won't translate to the other side of the bag. As a hitter, he should mash at Fenway, and put rest any questions about his ability to thrive outside of Coors Field.
Dalbec is something of an unknown. Can he be the force that he was in the second half of last year, when he got more aggressive within the strike zone and became a true power threat? Or will he revert back to his struggles of the first half as the strikeouts pile up? Most observers believe he's turned a corner. If so, he's supplies plus-power from the lower third of the lineup.
SCOUTS' TAKE
"I think Devers is one of the best players in baseball, and I think he's going to keep getting better. His feet look better this year (defensively), and if can get his feet under control, he won't be as wild with the arm as he's been. He's made progress. I've seen him make some spectacular plays. Hitting-wise, I think he's one of the top two-three hitters in the game. He's a (Juan) Soto-type hitter. Not as selective, obviously, but I think he's a hell of a player. He might be their best player. ... Dalbec looks improved. He's got to cut down on the holes in his swing. But the ball jumps off the bat when he's locked in and he has the potential to put up big numbers. He looked a lot better in spring training this year compared to last. He's controlling the strike zone a little better. It's all about making contact. He's still going to strike out because he's got a big swing. ... Not every shortstop can play second base, but I think Story can. The shift helps, and there aren't nearly as many double plays to worry about. ... Bogaerts is so underrated. Take some of those defensive metrics and throw them out. ... He might not have great range, but the guy knows where to play and he's sure-handed. He's money. Plus, he's a really good hitter who knows how to hit when it counts. He's right up there with the elite players in the game.''
CATCHERS
Christian Vazquez, Kevin Plawecki
More than any position on the roster, this one is in a state of flux, with both players entering the final year of their deals and no set succession plan lined up.
The Red Sox gave serious thought to moving on from Vazquez last winter -- first, debating whether to pick up his option, and then, inquiring about Jacob Stallings. That doesn't bode well for his future here. If he wants to stay in Boston, he'll need to avoid some mental lapses that have plagued his game in recent seasons and also become more of an offensive contributor. His .352 slugging percentage isn't going to cut it.
Plawecki will catch Eovaldi most times -- though not in the opener -- and the opportunity is there to swipe more playing time. He doesn't throw nearly as well as Vazquez, but in today's game, few teams run anyway so that might be much of a factor. He's capable of surprising pop from time to time, but the answered question is whether he can maintain that with a heavier workload.
SCOUTS' TAKE
"That's a decent combination. Neither one's great, but they're both solid. They can block the ball well enough, and Vasquez can throw. ... They're not great hitters, but Vazquez can occasionally drive the ball to right-center and come up with some big hits. ... I think the (pitching) staff has confidence in throwing to both of them, which is important.''
OUTFIELD
Alex Verdugo, Kike Hernandez, Jackie Bradley Jr., J.D. Martinez.
There's a feeling within the organization that Verdugo should do more offensively, and Verdugo shares that assessment. He's aiming for 40 doubles and 20 homers, which would seem within reach at Fenway. A key, of course, will be hitting lefties far better than a year ago. The hope is that was a one-year aberration.
It wasn't lost on the Red Sox that they really started to take off when Hernandez shifted full-time to center field and became the everyday leadoff hitter. Hernandez is a dynamic player who doesn't shrink from the big moments, and it should help him defensively to have Bradley next to him in right.
The bar is set low for Bradley from an offensive standpoint, so it shouldn't be hard for him to clear it. He doesn't have to win a Silver Slugger, but an approximation of his last full season in Boston -- .738 OPS in 2019-- would be most welcome.
Martinez will get some time in the outfield, but not as much as was planned when spring training began, thanks to Arroyo handling right field suitably. Martinez's bat has slowed some, but he's still a very good run producer in the cleanup spot. He, too, will be motivated in playing for a new contract.
SCOUTS' TAKE
''Verdugo didn't swing the bat well in the spring. He was uppercutting and his timing was off. But he's a quality hitter, and I think he'll be fine. That arm plays fine in left field at Fenway, where you can throw a lot of runners out. ... Kike's just a baseball player. He'll show you surprising power at times and gives you good at-bats. He gets good jumps on balls. ... If Bradley can take balls to left-center and stay in the strike zone longer without hooking balls, he'll be fine. ... I saw him try to bunt three times this spring against the shift, and that needs a lot of work. He should be able to bunt better. If he tries to bunt 10 times, he can get five hits. He's not going to get five hits (in 10 at-bats) swinging away. Then again, if you need him to hit out of the ninth spot, you're in trouble. He's there for his glove. ... I saw Martinez really square some balls up at the end. He'll be fine -- professional hitter. But they should limit him in the outfield. He's better off at DH."