Monday is an off day for the NBA to let everyone enjoy the NCAA championship game. The rest of the week will be spent wrapping up the regular season and finally sorting out some of the playoff seeding that is still not decided.
“(I’ve seen) nothing like this, where like 1 to 4 is so tightly contested. And then I guess 5 and 6 more so now,” Ime Udoka said. “‘I had one in San Antonio a few years ago, where we lost to New Orleans last day, New Orleans got into playoffs, we would have been second if we won and fell all the way to seventh. And so, yeah, that was one but even with that, you knew who your opponent was going to be based on win and loss. This is, obviously, totally different because of the four or six teams in the mix.”
Let’s take a look at how this breaks down.
Let’s assume Miami is locked into the top seed. Boston needs to be perfect the rest of the way and the Heat would have to lose out, and that's not likely with the Heat facing Charlotte, Atlanta, and Orlando. The real battle is 2-4.
Here’s how the standings look today
Here’s how tiebreakers between two teams are determined
- Head-to-head won-lost percentage
- Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
- Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division
- Conference won-lost percentage
- W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
- W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
- Net Points, all games
Current tiebreakers for Boston
Vs. Miami: Boston (Celtics head-to-head with 2 wins, 1 loss)
Vs. Milwaukee: (if Boston wins, Celtics head-to-head with 3 wins to 1 loss. If Milwaukee wins, Bucks because they lead the Central division)
Vs. Philadelphia: (Celtics with a 9-7 division record to Sixers 6-9
You may see somewhere that the division winner is the first tiebreaker in a 3-way tie and not head-to-head, but in this scenario, Boston and Milwaukee would each be division winners so Thursday’s game will determine the tiebreaker.
Here’s how 2-4 looks moving forward (* = back-to-back)
BOSTON
Next opponents: @Chicago, @Milwaukee*, @Memphis
The Bulls and Bucks play Tuesday night, so there could be a little clarity there for Boston. A Bucks loss there could change how each team approaches Thursday night’s game between Boston and Milwaukee. It could change how Boston approaches their game with the Bulls as well. Ime Udoka could take the opportunity to rest a couple of guys on the front end of that back-to-back and then go full bore against the Bucks. Memphis is locked into the 2nd seed in the West, so I assume they’ll take that as an off day. That could end up being a straight-up JV game.
MILWAUKEE
Next opponents: @Chicago, Boston, @Detroit*, @Cleveland
Both the Bucks and Sixers have one extra game to play. Milwaukee can easily go 3-1 if they want to with 4-0 a possibility. At this point, Chicago and Toronto are just trying to figure out who is 5th and who is 6th, though there's an outside chance they can fall into the play-in. That's very unlikely, but still possible.
PHILADELPHIA
Next opponents: @Indiana, @Toronto, Indiana, Detroit*
This is still the easiest path left among the top-four teams, but we’ve seen the Pacers hit shots and the Sixers have already lost to Detroit. The Raptors are a tough team as well, so let’s see how Doc Rivers plays this final stretch.
Statistically, based on strength of schedule, Boston is still most likely to finish fourth. But we can throw probabilities out the window at this point. One bad loss on Tuesday can change all of this, and frankly, I think the Bucks and Sixers are happy with the path through the 3rd or 4th seeds.
Looking at the bottom of the East, Chicago has a difficult closing schedule with Milwaukee and Boston on a home back-to-back, Charlotte, and a road game in Minnesota. Toronto closes with Atlanta, Philly and Houston on a home back-to-back, and a road game in New York.
Technically, all of Chicago’s opponents are still playing for something while Toronto gets the Rockets and Knicks. That could make the 3-6 matchup a series against the Bulls while the 4-5 draws the Raptors. Frankly, the Raptors are annoying and always dangerous in the playoffs, so the 3rd seed might be the sweet spot in the East.
A 2-7 matchup draws the winner of the 7-8 play-in game. Cleveland is now in 7th and the finish at Orlando, at Brooklyn, and home against Milwaukee. How they close could depend on whether the Bucks are locked into their seed.
Atlanta, Charlotte, and Brooklyn all have four games left. Cleveland’s magic number to clinch 7th is still three, so they're not locked in yet. Atlanta is the hottest team in the East right now with a five-game winning streak and games in Toronto, home against Washington, at Miami, and at Houston left to play. If Miami is locked into the top seed, the Hawks could snag home court for that play-in game.
The biggest question for Boston is whether the Nets can move up and grab that 7th seed. They only trail Cleveland by 2.5 games and Atlanta by 1, so yes, they certainly can. They close with Houston, the Knicks at MSG on a back-to-back, Cleveland, and Indiana. The Cavs game will be the big one. If Brooklyn can take care of the three non-playoff teams remaining, they can win out and jump into that 7-8 game to give themselves two chances to make the final playoff field.
So after all that -- about a thousand words worth of explanation -- we still aren’t much closer to any answers. Tomorrow’s games could provide a little more clarity, but the Celtics could still finish anywhere in the top four, and none of those opponents are determined yet.
This could go down to the last day of the season.