The Boston Celtics are just 2.5 games out of first place with nine games to go, but then again, so are the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers.
It’s a tight race in the East, especially if you include the Chicago Bulls, who are 4.5 games behind the first place Miami Heat. Here’s a look at each team’s final stretch so we can try to figure out who will finish where in a few weeks.
* = back-to-back
Finish probabilities via PlayoffStatus.com
Remaining strength of schedule via Tankathon
MIAMI HEAT
Remaining strength of schedule: 15th
Opponents: Golden State, New York, Brooklyn*, Sacramento, @Boston, @Chicago, @Toronto*, Charlotte, Atlanta, @Orlando
Miami has 10 games remaining to Boston’s 9 (we have to get rid of that half game in the standings). The Warriors and Knicks are both banged up, Sacramento is Sacramento, and they could sweep the final three games of the season, so that could be six wins towards their magic number of 9 to win the East. The Boston/Chicago/Toronto stretch will probably bring a loss or two, but the numbers are looking pretty solid for the Heat to hold on and win the East.
Highest probability finish: First (85%)
BOSTON CELTICS
Remaining strength of schedule: 1st
Opponents: Utah, Minnesota, @Toronto*, Miami, Indiana, Washington, @Chicago, @Milwaukee*, @Memphis
Indiana and Washington should be wins, but Utah and Minnesota are playing for something, so those will be tough games. Miami is obviously going to be a difficult game as well. The real wild card in Boston’s schedule is that Chicago/Milwaukee/Memphis finish. The Bulls are trying to hold on to a middle seed now, but Lonzo Ball’s long injury recovery hurts them. Will the Bucks be resting players? Will Memphis have their seed locked up and be resting guys? Will Boston be resting guys or gunning for a higher seed?
Highest probability finishes: 3rd (28%), 4th (24%), 2nd (23%)
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Remaining strength of schedule: 5th
Opponents: Chicago, Washington, @Memphis, @Philadelphia, @Brooklyn, Los Angeles Clippers*, Dallas Mavericks, @Chicago, Boston, @Detroit*, @Cleveland
Milwaukee has 11 games remaining. The April 7 game against the Celtics might be the determining factor in the standings. Boston has beaten Milwaukee twice so a third win gives the Celtics the head-to-head tiebreaker. Will the Bucks try to angle for a certain matchup? If they're hoping to take that third-seed path through the playoffs, they might actually be in the best spot to engineer that.
Highest probability finishes: 3rd (27%), 2nd (26%), 4th (22%)
PHILADELPHIA 76ers:
Remaining strength of schedule: 24th
Opponents: @Los Angeles Lakers, @Los Angeles Clippers, @Phoenix, Milwaukee, @Detroit, Charlotte, @Cleveland*, @Indiana, @Toronto, Indiana, Detroit*
Philly tried to punt their game against Miami by sitting Joel Embiid and James Harden, but the rest of the available Sixers had other ideas. There will be a couple of tough games the rest of the way, but don’t be shocked to see the Sixers end the season on a seven-game winning streak no matter who they play. And frankly, they can’t just tank and expect things to go their way because they got a more advantageous seed. They still need to get Harden, Embiid, and everyone else working together.
Their schedule is too soft, in my opinion, to drop them below the second seed.
Highest probability finishes: 2nd (35%), 2nd (27%), 3rd (24%).
The Bulls have the seventh-toughest remaining strength of schedule and the probabilities point to a 33% chance that they're going to finish in fifth. With two games to make up, and games against the Heat, Celtics, and Bucks (twice), I’m comfortable slotting Chicago there.
Miami will most likely win the division. Philly, no matter how hard they try, will have to live with second, even if it means possibly getting Brooklyn in the first round.
The Nets are flawed no matter what, but no one wants Kevin Durant in the playoffs, so every team is rooting for Toronto to stay in seventh and Cleveland to hang on to sixth. This scenario essentially eliminates Kyrie Irving from the play-in tournament because he wouldn’t be able to play in Canada or Brooklyn.
Where Boston and Milwaukee finish will likely be the biggest fight at the top of the conference in the closing weeks of the season. Milwaukee controls its own destiny by having one less loss, but this can go either way. It might come down to who wins in their next matchup, but the Bucks can make a strong closing kick if they really want.
If I had to guess, I would bet Boston finishes fourth by a slight margin, but that wouldn’t be the end of the world. They should win a first-round matchup with the Bulls even if Chicago is at full strength. Miami would loom in the second round, but the Celtics have already shown they have what it takes to beat them. The third seed might be the most coveted, but the fourth seed isn’t the worst spot in the world, and it would let one of the Sixers or Bucks fall by the wayside before the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston’s in a good spot to grab either one of these seeds while still holding onto an outside chance of moving up. There's a path out of the East for Boston.