Let's start with the obvious: there really were no winners in all of this, this 99-day odyssey in which Major League Baseball alienated its fanbase further and turned itself into a punch line.
Work stoppages, regardless of the outcome, are never positive -- no matter how much spin gets applied after the fact. And the fact remains that baseball cost itself plenty in having the start of spring training delayed almost a month. Undoubtedly, there will be some fans who are angry enough that it will take some time for them to return. Some won't return at all.
But now that there is a new deal in place, let's assess the fallout and determine the winners and losers.
WINNERS
1. In general, the players.
It seems rather obvious that they won more than they lost by holding the line as long as they did.
It wasn't long ago that owners were offering minuscule increases in the competitive balance tax (CBT) thresholds -- a few million more than last year. That certainly wasn't reflective of the revenue growth that the game is experiencing, thanks to new media deals, advertising patches on uniforms, an expanded playoff format and new revenue streams from gambling.
The new first CBT threshold is $230 million, an increase of $20 million from last year. It's the hope of the Players Association that this will spur more spending throughout the game. And even if the presence of the CBT serves as a constraint on spending -- with a handful of big market teams tip-toeing up to the threshold, without daring to go over -- then at least the significant increase in the new deal will allow more signings.
The introduction of a draft lottery -- with six teams involved -- is another clear win for players, who sought to introduce anti-tanking measures so that teams won't be focused on a race to the bottom in an effort to help their rebuilding efforts.
And the fact that the Players Association got big increases n the minimum salary -- which jumps from $560,000 to $700,000 -- is another plus in their column. So, too, is the creation of pre-arbitration bonus pools of $50 million annually also helps assure that young stars will be paid better, sooner.
Finally, to address service tine manipulation, the union succeeded in getting concessions so that the best performers in the rookie class get credit for a full year of service time -- regardless of when they are called up to the big leagues.
2. The purists.
Gone -- presumably for good -- are novelties like the ghost runner on second base in extra innings and seven-inning doubleheaders.
Those are now part of the dustbin of history, relegated to the past.
At the time, in the middle of a pandemic, they were perhaps necessary adjustments that had to be made.
But now that the pandemic is (mostly) behind us and a 162-game schedule is going to be played, those changes are gone for good.
A 12-team playoff field will be introduced in 2022, and if that doesn't exactly summon thoughts of, say, 1967, when each league sent its champion directly to the World Series, it's better than the 14-team field owners had pushed. It was a given that playoffs would expand - but the players held the line and saw the field increase to just one more team per league, rather than the two per league the owners favored. A small victory, but a victory nonetheless.
On the other hand, I suspect some purists aren't happy with the notion of a universal DH. Some will miss the strategy that comes with having pitchers hit (or more accurately, attempt to hit), along with the elimination of the double-switch.
It's likely the game will survive.
3. Big market teams.
You can say this is a case of the rich getting richer.
To the degree that big market teams now have considerably more wiggle room to spend -- independent of whether they go over the thresholds or not -- the likes of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees and Mets all benefit from the higher thresholds.
They might have (secretly) wished that the Players Association succeeded in its request to reduce revenue sharing (that plank failed), but at least it didn't increase. Those teams don't like the idea of funding the Pirates, Rays, Marlins and others at the opposite end of the payroll scale, but at least their payouts aren't going to increase.
LOSERS
1. The influence of Scott Boras.
Of the eight players on the MLBPA Executive Board, five were Boras clients and the entire board recommended that their fellow players reject the deal. That effort failed.
Boras has, in recent years, fancied himself as a sort of Shadow Commissioner, proposing ideas to change the game, ignoring an important but inarguable fact; Boras could proclaim that water is wet, and the majority of owners would voice their strenuous objection.
It was Boras's intent to make himself kingmaker in these talks, and with the rank-and-file voting in overwhelming favor of it and rejecting his recommendation, that gambit failed miserably.
2. Small market teams.
They're likely to see their big-market brethren further separate themselves when it comes to spending. Even if only two teams go over the first CBT threshold this year and beyond -- the same numbers that went over last year -- they'll be doing so at a higher level.
It remains to be seen whether an international draft gets introduced eventually -- that's on hold for the time being. If it's eventually adapted, it could level the playing field somewhat, although, in theory, the cap on spending internationally, in place for a while now, should have already accomplished that.
Meanwhile, the 12-team playoff field will make it at least somewhat easier for overachieving, low-payroll teams to qualify for the postseason. Teams like Tampa Bay and Kansas City, who have experienced short-term success on a sporadic basis, might make more regular October appearances.
Whether it can help them win pennants and championships is another matter altogether.
3. Middle-Class players.
The higher CBT thresholds should incentivize the big market teams to spend on the stars. There are huge paydays awaiting Freddie Freeman and Carlos Correa in the coming days and weeks, and that will continue. The stars will always get paid.
At the bottom the pay scale, rookies get a huge jump in first-year pay, while players in their second and third seasons will benefit from the newly introduced pre-arb bonus pools, which will reward the best young players who aren't yet eligible for salary arbitration or free agency.
But for the middle-of-the-road veteran free agents, things may not be improving much. They're still going to be squeezed out.
The stars, impact-makers, will always be in demand, The young players new to MLB will be rewarded sooner.
In between, however, the 300-year old major leaguer who might be looking for $5 million in annual salary, risks getting squeezed out. The analytics that so many front offices rely on in evaluating players will continue to suggest that it's better to go with the 22-year-old -- even after the bumps in minimum salary -- rather than pay five times as much for an more experienced option,
And that's going to manifest itself, especially in the next few weeks, with the chaotic signings that will get underway almost immediately. Once more, the players in the middle could be without jobs when the music -- and the spending -- stops.