There's a lot we don't know about the 2022 MLB season, including "Will there be one?'' and if so, "When will it start?''
For now, of course, the game is in the midst of a lockout and no new negotiating sessions are scheduled. The expectation is that the fast approaching clarion call of "pitchers and catchers'' will spur both sides to action and create some much-needed urgency to the situation. Again, that's a hope, but far from a guarantee.
But for the purpose of this exercise, let's assume that late January sees a resumption of negotiations and sometime in February yields an agreement that leads to a condensed spring training and an on-time start to the regular season. Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?
In the meantime, the Red Sox remain a proverbial work-in-progress. When the plug got pulled at midnight, Dec. 2, the Red Sox had, literally minutes earlier completed a shocking deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. They had also made a handful of free agent signings, but with the lockout has come a freeze on the usual offseason activity.
No trades, no signings, no arbitration filings, no Rule 5 draft....no nothin'.
So there's work still to be done still.
It's difficult to assess the roster as it currently stands, since it's incomplete. And without knowing what the new agreement might include when it comes to the CBT, it's impossible to know how much leeway the Sox will have when a deal is in place and they get back to the business of roster building.
For now, however, here are seven questions about the Red Sox and what still needs to be done:
1) Which area of the roster remains the most unsettled?
A case could be made for either the starting rotation or the outfield, but given the importance of the former, let's go with that for now.
The rotation certainties are holdovers Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta, with prodigal lefty Rich Hill also in the mix. Beyond that, there are a handful of candidates, but few locks. Michael Wacha, another free agent signing, could be part of the rotation, or he could contribute as a multi-inning bullpen piece. The same goes for Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock.
It's possible that Wacha could be the fifth starter and Houck and Whitlock serve as bridges between the starter and the high-leverage relievers. Whitlock has thrown 73.1 innings over the last two seasons and the Sox may be wary of doubling that total by having him in the rotation full-time. Houck has struggled when facing a lineup the third time and may better suited to provide two or three innings several times a week. There's certainly value to that role in today's game.
The free agent starting class has been picked pretty clean, though the Sox could always make a deal with a team like Oakland, which may be willing to trade a few of its starters in an effort to reduce payroll.
2) How does the outfield shape up?
This, too, is unsettled, although we have a good idea who the candidates are.
Hunter Renfroe is gone, and Jackie Bradley Jr. has returned. How Bradley fits remains an open question. Is he part of a platoon with a Player to be Named in right? Is he a late-inning defensive replacement? The Red Sox could probably live with the kind of production they got from Bradley in his final year here (.814 OPS), or even his last full season in 2019 (.738 OPS, 21 homers). What they can't abide is the sort of performance he supplied in Milwaukee (.497 OPS, 34 OPS+).
Also uncertain: the role of Kiké Hernandez. It would seem logical that Hernandez returns to center field, where he offered spectacular defensive play (14 defensive runs saved in a little more than half a season). But part of Hernandez's appeal when he was signed by the Sox was his versatility, and the possibility exists that the Sox believe he's better suited to moving around rather than occupying one spot in the field -- however well he might play it.
Alex Verdugo will play somewhere most everyday, likely left field, which he played regularly in 2021.
Among the wild cards: Do the Sox win the bidding for Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki? In a podcast that was widely shared on social media this week, former Sox reliever Koji Uehara was playfully bullying Suzuki to sign with the Sox. The club remains highly interested, but there are obviously no guarantees when the lockout ends and the posting process resumes (there are approximately 23 days left on the clock). If the Sox were to sign Suzuki, he would presumably become the everyday right fielder. Then, with Verdugo in left and Hernandez in center and Bradley as the fourth outfielder, they would have a strong outfield unit.
But further complicating matters is that by the time Suzuki makes his choice, other options will be off the board.
Chaim Bloom said the team could use a righthanded outfielder in the wake of the Renfoe deal. If that's not Suzuki, then who is it?
3) Can Christian Arroyo be trusted at second base?
This question depends on his health. Arroyo seemingly spent half the year on the IL last season, with assorted issues (hamstring, hand injuries, COVID), continuing a pattern that's existed for much of his career. When he was on the field, there was a lot to like. Arroyo showed good range at second and had a penchant for delivering a big hit in big spots.
But it would seem quite risky to expect him to play 130 or so games when his 57 games played last season represented a career-high.
There's not much else on the roster -- aside from Hernandez -- that the Sox could count on at the position. Jonathan Arauz profiles as a depth piece, but little more. And there's nobody ready to contribute on a regular basis from the farm system.
A few free agents remain on the market -- Donovan Solano, Josh Harrison -- but they're largely underwhelming options.
4) What can be done to improve the left-side defense?
At the end of last season, the Red Sox acknowledged this was an issue, and it helped contribute to some troubling numbers for a few of their pitchers, who were hurt by the poor infield play behind them -- none more so that Eduardo Rodriguez, since gone to Detroit.
There are no complaints about the offensive production from either third baseman Rafael Devers or shortstop Xander Bogaerts. The latter is among the most productive middle infielders in the game and his .894 OPS since the start of 2018 is the best in the game at his position. But while he's fairly surehanded -- just nine errors last year -- his range has become a major issue. Some advance defensive metrics, however flawed, suggest that Bogaerts is among the worst defenders at short in the game.
Bogaerts is 29 and is unlikely to get better in this regard. The Red Sox can work on him when it comes to positioning to try to cover for his deficiencies, but the there's a limit to what they can expect. They could always sign Carlos Correa and move Bogaerts to second, but that seems highly unlikely. As Bogaerts approaches his opt-out at the end of the season, he is what he is.
As for Devers, there's more hope there. For one thing, Devers is four years younger, allowing for continued improvement. And while he's error-prone -- his 22 errors were tops at the position in 2021 -- there's the sense that these come in bunches, and are as much mental as anything. More than any player I can remember, Devers is prone to fielding slumps. He can make a handful of errors in a week's time, then be nearly flawless for the next month.
That suggests that, at least to a point, Devers is "fixable.'' He's shown the athleticism and the ability to make great plays, but needs to be more consistent and focused.
5) Who's the closer?
When Matt Barnes cratered in the second half, the Red Sox suggested that they were open to a "committee'' approach, without having a designated option for save situations. And they could go that way in 2022, too, going with whatever match-up made the most sense on a given night.
That carries with it its own risks. Relievers are notorious creatures of habit and seem to perform best when there's a prescribed order and routine to their usage.
It's also possible that Barnes could reclaim the job. He was brilliant in the first half before experiencing mechanical issues in July, and eventually, pitching himself off the postseason roster. From All-Star selection to October bystander was quite precipitous drop-off in a matter of months.
It's hard to imagine the Sox spending big on a free agent solution like Kenley Jansen, and while some have suggested Whitlock for the role -- one he could probably handle -- that would seem to be a misuse of his talent.
If there's any consolation, it's that closers are sometimes discovered in the unlikeliest of places and that a number of championship teams of late -- including the 2013 Red Sox -- stumbled upon internal solution mid-season, giving the Sox hope that someone will emerge in spring training. For now, it's a nagging question, but one that doesn't necessarily have to be answered right away.
6) Do any contract extensions get done before the start of the season?
Most of the attention has been squarely on Devers, a foundational player the Sox can't afford to lose. But there are others headed for free agency, including Eovaldi, Hernandez and Christian Vazquez.
Given the internal deliberations over whether to pick up a pretty affordable option for Vazquez and the fact that he's coming off a poor offensive season, we can safely rule him out. But retaining Eovaldi and Hernandez would make some sense.
It's Devers that will be the bellwether. Having failed to get a deal done with Mookie Betts, the Sox were forced into dealing him before he began his walk year. If a similar scenario unfolds with Devers, the anger from the fan base will be unleashed and the credibility of the current ownership group will sink to an all-time low. Failing to get a deal done before the start of 2022 won't mean Devers has one foot out the door.
But it will suggest that the clock is ticking.
7) How much help can be expected from the farm system in 2022?
Bloom has overseen significant improvement in the pipeline, with most experts now ranking the Sox' system in the upper third of the game. That doesn't qualify as "mission accomplished'', but it does suggest, at minimum, that the organization is heading in the right direction.
But having a deeper system doesn't necessarily translate into immediate help for the big league level.
Of the top tier of prospects, Jarren Duran is unquestionably the closest, having appeared in 33 games for Boston last year. That audition, however, revealed Duran to be not quite ready for prime time. He struggled to make contact consistently and demonstrated that his transition to the outfield remains a work in progress. He needs further time to develop both of these skillsets at Triple A.
Triston Casas appears destined to make his major league debut in 2022, though, like Duran last year, it's doubtful that will come in the first half of the season. Casas hasn't not yet shown consistent power, though the expectation is that it will come in time. Remember: Bloom is an unabashed proponent of having players get a solid foundation at Triple A before graduating to the big leagues.
It's more likely that a handful of pitchers could help out, though a couple of the highest-ranked ones (Bryan Mata, Thad Ward) will still be recovering from Tommy John. Expect that Connor Seabold and Kutter Crawford, both of whom got the briefest of cameos last year, to get more looks this season, perhaps joined, in time, by Brayan Bello, Chris Murphy and perhaps others.