With the MLB lockout now two weeks old and no new talks even scheduled between the two sides, the news has slowed to a trickle.
Teams can't so much as talk about major leaguers -- never mind sign them or trade them. But that doesn't mean that the speculation about what might happen after a lockout has stopped.
In the last few days, the Sox have been linked to a couple of transactions. Let's break them down and assess how much sense they might make.
1) Sox said to have interest in lefty free agent Carlos Rodon.
The Daily Herald, in suburban Chicago, noted that the Red Sox were among the team showing the most interest in the lefty before the lockout hit. Others said to be in on Rodon include the Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers.
WHY IT MAKES SENSE: Rodon has a superb season for the White Sox, going 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA in 24 starts. Included in that was a no-hitter against Cleveland in April. Rodon was named to the American League All-Star team and among AL starters, he was seventh in strikeouts per nine innings (9.16) and fourth in WAR (5,0) as calculated by Baseball-Reference.
Rodon would fit nicely into the space vacated by Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed a five-year deal with Detroit in November and left a hole in the Sox rotation. Rodon is about the same age as Rodriguez, but while Rodriguez signed for a long-term deal and security, Rodon isn't in a position to get that sort of commitment from teams. likely to settle for a shorter deal at far less money.
WHY IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE: The reason Rodon would be (relatively) affordable revolves around his health. Over the second half of the season, shoulder issues limited Rodon to just nine starts and 43 innings. His performance after the break didn't fall off much (2.51 ERA), but he missed most of August, and when he returned in September, the White Sox were careful to make sure that he started mostly with extra rest.
That presents a major red flag for interested teams. Rodon has battled arm injuries throughout his career. He had shoulder surgery in 2017, and then underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019. In his career, he's had just one season in which he pitched more than 140 innings -- 2016, when he made 28 starts and totaled 165 innings.
CONCLUSION: Rodon is clearly an elite starter when he's healthy, but the fact that he hasn't been durable is a significant cause for concern. A lot will depend on how much Rodon is looking for. MLBTradeRumors projected that Rodon would get $25 million, a figure that seems absurdly high for me. Then again, Noah Syndergaard got $21 million from the Angels after throwing a handful innings over the last two seasons. My guess is that the Sox would want some back-end protection on any kind of proposal -- i.e. a team option for 2023 -- since that's been Chaim Bloom's M.O. The Sox would probably be OK getting 25 or so starts from Rodon in 2022 given the depth options they have for the rotation (including Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and some prospects). But at some point, the salary demands could price them out.
2) Red Sox and Padres could match up as trade partners.
We've already seen that the Sox have made inquiries on catcher Jacob Stallings, who was dealt from the Pirates to the Marlins last month. Current starter Christian Vazquez is eligible for free agency after 2022, and his 2021 season -- in which he took a step backward offensively -- has to be of some concern. (Had it not been, the Sox would have never made an offer on Stallings).
A San Diego-area blog (Gaslampball.co) has speculated that the Padres' catching depth could lead them to deal one of their receivers to the Red Sox, along with veteran first baseman Eric Hosmer, in exchange for a Red Sox pitching prospect.
The Padres have four catchers on their 40-man roster:: Jorge Alfaro, Victor Caratini, Luis Campusano and Austin Nola. Alfaro was just obtained in a trade (from the Marlins, ironically) and Caratini has served as the personal catcher for Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, so that leaves Nola or Campusano as potential trade targets.
A.J. Preller loves to wheel and deal, and the Red Sox are known to have had interest in Campusano when they were shopping Mookie Betts.
WHY IT MAKES SENSE: The Sox are indeed thin on catching. Kevin Plawecki is an adequate No. 2, but doesn't profile as someone who could move into a bigger role. The Sox are still uncertain what they have in Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez, who had a big season at Double A Portland, still needs further development.
Nola is already 31, but because he took a while to get to the big leagues, is under control for four more seasons. He's shown flashes of offensive potential (an ,825 OPS in 2020) but is only average defensively and hasn't established himself, having never played more than 79 games in a season.
Campusano is the more intriguing option here. He hit 15 homers at Triple A with a .906 OPS. He also possesses a plus throwing arm and has improved his pitch-blocking skills. He profiles as a solid No. 1 catcher with power potential to be a middle-of-the-order contributor. Obtaining him would fill the Sox' needs behind the plate for a long time.
WHY IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE: Most of the negative surrounds Hosmer, who's owed another $60 million over his final four years, and lot depends on how much the Padres would take back in such a deal. If San Diego took roughly two-thirds of the remaining salary, making the Sox responsible for $20 million or so, it would make some sense. The Sox could platoon Hosmer with Bobby Dalbec at first base for a cost of just under $7 million per season, and could also turn around and deal him elsewhere.
But the Padres may be seeking more salary relief than that, at which point Hosmer becomes too burdensome for the Sox.
It's one thing to take Jackie Bradley Jr's salary for a year in order to "buy'' to good prospects from the Brewers. But having four years of commitment to Hosmer, a player, who while just 32, is clearly in decline (.395 slugging percentage in 2021). Hosmer has a $22 million salary for 2022 and can opt-out after that, though with three years and $39 million remaining, it's doubtful he could better than unless he completely turns his career around next season.
Then there's the player cost for the Sox, who would be asked to give up a talented young pitcher. Brayan Bello, who was named the organization's Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2021, is one name being mentioned.
CONCLUSION: The Sox have made great strides in improving their starting pitching depth, but given the uncertainty of Bryan Mata (recovering from TJ), Bello is probably the most regarded starter in the upper levels of the system. Given that Nathan Eovaldi is headed for free agency after 2022, the Sox are going to need internal reinforcements.
Also, as noted above, the sheer magnitude of Hosmer's contract is a concern. Unless the Sox could convince the Padres to take as much as two-thirds of the remaining deal, that would seem to be a non-starter for Boston.