NHL Notebook: 14 thoughts on 2021-22 Bruins past quarter-mark of new season

Now 24 games into the 2021-22 campaign, the Bruins have already passed the quarter-mark of the new season — and are currently sitting in the top wild-card spot (based on points percentage) with their 14-8-2 record.

It’s been an … interesting … season, to say the least — with the Bruins staying afloat somewhat in the standings, but still plagued by a few familiar flaws that have hindered this roster in the past.

Here are a couple of fleeting thoughts on the state of the Bruins, the NHL in general and what to expect from this club moving forward:

1. Is the Ullmark/Swayman tandem turning a corner — and complicating a Rask return? 

In some respects, Tuukka Rask’s impending return to the Bruins is a bit like bracing oneself for shopping around the holiday season.

Some love this time of the year — focusing on the perks of bringing home a shiny new toy for the household. 

Others detest it — bemoaning the unnecessary headache that comes with a fiscal juggling act and the other unnecessary pomp that comes with the holidays. 

But whether you’re a Scrooge or a Santa around this time of year, one thing remains constant — and that’s the inevitability of it all. Like it or not, you know you’re going to be embroiled in it as soon as the calendar flips to December and Mariah Carey starts inundating the airwaves. 

And whether you’re firmly opposed to Rask’s return or dusting off your No. 40 sweaters for a game in late January — your opinion isn’t going to dictate the likelihood of Rask returning for the stretch run.

But, I will say, even though Don Sweeney and Cam Neely’s comments all season long — coupled with the sight of Rask practicing with the B’s at Warrior Ice Arena —would present the clearest signal yet that the franchise’s all-time winningest goalie will be back in the fold, the play of the tandem currently entrenched on the roster might be throwing a wrench in those plans. 

IF Rask returns, the most likely scenario would involve sending Jeremy Swayman (waivers exempt) down to Providence in order to guarantee more reps. But over his last five outings, the rookie netminder has posted a .942 save percentage.

Moving Ullmark and his spiffy new contract (with no-movement clauses in place) is unlikely, but if Rask returns and Swayman is operating at a high level, then perhaps Ullmark is the odd man out as far as reps go on a suddenly crowded three-man rotation. 

But just in the nick of time — or perhaps after spotting Rask facing shots ahead of morning skate — Ullmark has elevated his game as well,  posting a .941 save percentage over his last five starts, including a pair of 40+ save performances against the Oilers and Flames.

Even though a dearth of 5v5 scoring has been — and remains — the most pressing flaw with this roster, league-average netminding was also hampering Boston’s ability to pile up points at a consistent clip to open the year. Now, that's thankfully no longer the case. 

(After toiling near the bottom of the league in expected goals allowed to open the season, both Ullmark and Swayman have risen up through the ranks thanks to their respective runs in net.)

Ultimately, I still think Rask returns — and the ceiling of this club is still elevated if a healthy Rask is locked in for a playoff run. 

But the Bruins can at least exhale a bit when it comes to some of the netminders currently in place — especially Ullmark, who likely isn’t moving any time soon with that contract. 

At this point, solving Boston’s goaltending situation sure seems like it’s going to be a headache — but potentially a good problem to have.

2. Is luck finally falling Boston's way?

As we noted in our game recap of Boston's 4-2 win over the Flames, luck hasn't exactly been on the side of the Bruins so far in 2021-22. But is that starting to turn around — even if the B's are no longer dominating in puck possession and shot share?

From our piece: 

Throughout this season, the Bruins have built a reputation as a team that often piles on shots and holds some sizable leads in a few fancy metrics like expected goals — but often fails to translate those Grade-A looks into tangible goals.

Well, it’s been a reversal of fortunes over the last two games for the Bruins — with the Oilers and Flames holding a 108-72 edge in shot attempts and 53-31 advantage in scoring chances during 5v5 play. 

And yet, despite those uncharacteristic shot margins, the Bruins outscored both the Oilers and Flames, 5-1, during 5v5 action en route to two massive regulation wins.

Of course, coughing up 40+ shots per game is not a recipe for success — and the Bruins will need to tighten things up significantly if they want to start moving their way up in the standings.

But after coming up short time and time again in multiple games this year despite peppering the opposing goalie and holding a sizable advantage in high-danger shots, perhaps Boston's shooting slump and finishing rates are finally set to revert back to the mean. 

That'd be great news for this club — which, as Tucker Boynton notes below — has been historically unlucky so far this season when it comes to converting on chances.

Even though so-so netminding was often a nail in the coffin early on this year, Boston's fortunes have improved as both Ullmark and Swayman have come around. And while questions persist about the makeup of this D corps, the Bruins are still relinquishing high-danger chances at a far lower rate than the rest of the league.

The main concern is still even-strength scoring. And even though this team could still use another impact forward in the top-six, there should be some room for optimism when it comes to the number of snakebit players currently on this roster. 

With Boston still scoring at close to four goals below its expected output, it sure seems like only a matter of time before a guy like David Pastrnak finally snaps out of his scoring slump — and Taylor Hall starts converting with a bit more regularity. 

Even an extra goal or two can be the determinant between two points in the standings and no points at all — and the Bruins sure seem to be buoyed by the fact that the numbers are on their side when it comes to brighter days ahead, at least offensively. 

Yes, the entire roster could use a shot in the arm by way of a top-six pivot, for example. But this team's offensive ceiling is still much greater than the middling returns currently put forth — some of which has been a byproduct of just plain poor luck. 

3. Bruins (and the rest of the NHL) have to be concerned about Olympic participation

The NHL has until Jan. 10 to officially pull its players out of the 2022 Winter Olympics without fiscal penalty. But it sure seems like the league’s mind has been made up on whether or not it’d like to see its players on the international stage in Beijing. 

But despite the NHL’s concerns with COVID protocols and a three-week break in the middle of the season, it appears as though the decision to go to China will be up to the NHLPA and the players. 

“As part of the extension of the collective bargaining agreement, 20 or so months ago, we made a promise to give the players, if they so desired and the appropriate arrangements could be made, to have the players participate in the Olympics,’’ Gary Bettman said. “I think you all know that we have real concerns about that, even pre-COVID in terms of the impact on the season. Our concerns have only been magnified.’’

Indeed, Olympic participation is something that the players have fought for for years, and it was a key concession made by the league when the time came to hash out an extension to the current CBA back in 2020.

But given the potential complications that would come with a positive COVID test over in China, players should be thinking twice about participating — especially with the lack of clarity that’s come from the Beijing Organizing Committee. 

According to a report from Chris Johnston of the Toronto Star, the latest COVID protocol information provided by the IOC has some strict quarantine restrictions. Per Johnston’s report, any player with a confirmed positive test must produce two negative tests that are 24 hours apart, or the quarantine period can last from 21 days to five weeks. 

At this time, there’s no confirmation on whether or not an individual that tests positive will have to remain sequestered in China to serve out that quarantine timeline.

I understand the desire of many players to want to represent their home country and play on such a stage (many for the first time). But is it worth the potential risk of spending 3-5 weeks stuck in a hotel room in China?

Even with the best practices for safety put in place, breakthrough cases for COVID do happen. (I can attest to such misery). 

And the last thing a team like the Bruins wants is for a key cog like Brad Marchand or Charlie McAvoy to suddenly miss more than a month of action due to quarantine restrictions. Unless those quarantine restrictions are significantly relaxed, it sure doesn’t seem to be worth it for the Bruins, their players and any other club across the league.

4.  Bruins will have some cap room to work with this summer

The good news? The NHL’s salary-cap ceiling is projected to rise for the first time in a long time as the league’s revenues start recouping their losses in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The bad news? That growth is relatively marginal — with the cap ceiling expected to rise from $81.5 million to $82.5 million this upcoming offseason. 

Thankfully, the Bruins don’t necessarily have a ton of contracts to retain so far entering the offseason — with Boston expected to go into the summer with around $13 million in cap space, per @bruinscapspace.

The main domino to fall this summer will be Bergeron, who, if he returns, will likely account for a smaller cap hit than his current $6.875 million cost. Jake DeBrusk and his RFA status will no longer be part of the equation, while other free agents include names like Curtis Lazar, Anton Blidh and Jack Ahcan (RFA).  

Rask’s future could impact just how much capital the B’s have available in the summer of 2022. But all things considered, the B’s should have some wiggle room to take on a sizable contract in the coming months if the fit is right. 

Of course, Boston will also need to account for David Pastrnak’s looming payday in 2023, although the B's are also set to shed some cap around that time with Nick Foligno, Craig Smith, Erik Haula and John Moore’s contracts coming off the books. 

5. Kevin Fiala would be a perfect fit for Boston — given his lack of finish

Last weekend, we combed over a number of potential trade targets for the Bruins — be it 1-for-1 returns for DeBrusk or package deals that would solve some of Boston’s most pressing needs this season.

Of course, navigating the trade market is often a fickle exercise — with each new week in the NHL often bringing a slew of new candidates that could be on the move. 

And one intriguing name is a potential buy-low candidate in Minnesota Wild winger Kevin Fiala.

Even though Minny has been on a roll for weeks now, Fiala’s production has been a bit underwhelming — with the 25-year-old winger only scoring four goals (albeit with 14 helpers) over 27 games. 

With Fiala potentially due for a pay raise as an RFA this summer and Minnesota likely needing to allocate more financial resources elsewhere, the Swiss winger could very well be on the move in the coming months. 

But as @JFreshHockey noted below, Fiala is a bit similar to the 2021-22 Bruins — sterling underlying metrics, but just a major lack of puck luck and finishing ability that has cratered his numbers. 

It’s almost comical how little Fiala has been rewarded this season, with the winger leading all NHLers in goals above expected at -6.6. (In other words, he’s been more or less denied close to seven goals when weighed against the quality of chances that he’s generated). 

Even though a legit second-line center should remain the priority for the Bruins in terms of any trade target, a player like Fiala could offer heaps of value if the bounces start falling his way. 

As JFresh added, IF Fiala was simply converting chances at his career average shooting percentage, he’d have 11 goals and 24 points already this season. 

If he’s available, he’s certainly worth a look if you’re Boston. Given that lack of finish, he’d fit right in with this current crew. 

6. B’s should be praying for a short absence with Jakub Zboril

So far this season, the Bruins have had blueliners like John Moore and Connor Clifton step in admirably when Boston’s D corps has been knocked around.

But unless the B’s want to divert even more resources this trade season to shore up the lower depths of their blue line, Boston has to have its fingers crossed that Jakub Zboril will not miss a significant amount of time with his lower-body injury. 

(He's set to be re-evaluated in about another week.)

Even though expectations were low for Zboril entering this season, the 24-year-old defenseman was far and away Boston’s most pleasant surprise all season — with the puck-mover adding some stability to Boston’s third pairing, especially when slotted next to Mike Reilly. 

Be it on offense (where Zboril’s sound decision making and crisp transition play has jumpstarted many fruitful O-zone chances) or down the other end of the ice, the Bruins have been noticeably better when Zboril has been out there on a shift — with his unfortunate injury last week against Nashville standing as a brutal setback for a young skater that finally seemed to be putting it all together.

(Boston’s defense has been stouter with Zboril out on the ice — with the B’s expected goals rate per 60 minutes dropping from 2.04 to 1.73 when he’s skating. But on offense, the jump has been even more dramatic — with the B’s expected goals rate soaring from 2.52 to 3.14 when Zboril is on a shift). 

7. Free agency not yielding much in terms of tangible production

Gotta say, if you asked me which of Boston’s free-agent haul (which represented a total fiscal commitment of $44.8 million) would be the top goal scorer among that group through 24 games — Derek Forbort would be far from my first pick.

And yet, here we are — with Forbort actually tied for seventh on the team in scoring with his four tallies so far this season. Good for Forbort to actually have some puck luck fall his way, but bad news for a B’s roster when a stay-at-home regular with 12 career tallies on his ledger is pacing the pack among your newcomers.

8. B’s need more from Foligno

I can see why the Bruins were enamored with Nick Foligno in free agency and the intangibles he provides.

His teammates love him. He’s great with the media and is a fantastic quote. 

But for a guy who represents the eighth-highest cap hit on the roster, the B’s are going to need a lot more than Foligno’s current offensive output (four assists in 16 games).

Dating back to last season, there have been 363 forwards that have logged at least 500 minutes of 5v5 ice time. And among that pool of skaters, Foligno ranks 331st in 5v5 points per 60 minutes at 1.00.

Even when the B’s signed him back in July, Foligno was presented as a guy whose value would go beyond baseline stats — whether that be his veteran leadership or his on-ice attributes like a netfront presence that don’t always factor into goals and assists.

That’s all more or less accurate, and the Bruins weren’t necessarily expecting Foligno to replicate the 20-goal, 50-point campaigns he used to post during his prime. Still, the B’s desperately need a bit more scoring punch from a guy that’s expected to be a middle-six fixture on this team. 

9. Cast-offs looking pretty good

It’s often a perilous exercise to go through the “shoulda, coulda, woulda” route with guys who used to don black-and-gold sweaters on this roster.

Still, it’s pretty painful to look around the league at just how many former Bruins are thriving — while the B’s are still looking to draw more offense out of their current crop of players.

Thankfully, Ondrej Kase finally seems healthy and let’s hope it stays that way. But it’s just brutal luck for the Bruins that the guy they pried from Anaheim and hoped would be a top-six fixture here is now up to eight goals and 13 points in 26 games with the Maple Leafs. 

His tenure in Boston? Nine total games — and just one assist.

The Bruins made a calculated decision to walk away from Kase this past summer given his injury history, so alas. 

Meanwhile, Danton Heinen — counting just $1.1 million against the cap for the Penguins this season — is now up to eight goals and 13 points through 27 games this season. If you’re keeping track, that’s the same amount of points as Taylor Hall.

10. Bruins defense thrives on puck movement - but not a whole lot of offensive generation 

Back in September, we mapped out Boston’s ambitious undertaking when it came to crafting a skilled, puck-moving D corps that would execute and stymy high-danger chances not because of size and snarl — but because of speed and skill.

And so far, that seems to be the case.

Even though the construction of Boston’s D corps might chafe many a Bruins fan looking for a more traditional, hard-nosed blue line — the personnel in place are at least checking off plenty of the boxes that Sweeney was looking for when it came to sprinkling guys like Matt Grzelcyk and Mike Reilly throughout the lineup.

 As noted below in a fantastic piece from Harman Dayal and Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic last month, the Bruins actually boast three of the top 25 puck-moving defensemen in the league in McAvoy, Reilly and Grzelcyk — with all three standing out amongst their peers for their ability to push the puck out of the D-zone (limiting the number of chances opponents are able to generate), navigate through the neutral zone and generate clean entries over the offensive blue line. 

Of course, even with those sterling transition metrics and Boston’s lower expected goals against rate so far this season, that skill hasn’t yielded a lot of baseline production from this D corps, especially from guys like Grzelcyk (6 points in 24 games) and Reilly (4 points in 22 games).

A higher shot volume would be welcomed — with Brandon Carlo of all people leading the B’s blueliners in 5v5 shots per 60 minutes.  But some of that muted offensive production has also *surprise, surprise* been a consequence of this club’s frustrating lack of finish, with both Grzelcyk and McAvoy ranking near the top of the league among D-men in slot passes — a sign that they’re generating high-danger chances and getting pucks into Grade-A ice.

 It’s high time some of those pucks start finding their way into the back of the net. 

11. No, the Bruins aren’t going to be trading Patrice Bergeron

Are the Bruins setting themselves apart as top contenders in the Eastern Conference? As of right now - I don't think so.

But for a team that’s still operating at a 100-point pace, the notion that this franchise is going to close out the Bergeron Era by opening up a firesale and moving guys like No. 37 and Marchand is a bit of a stretch.

That didn’t stop Mike Milbury from giving his two cents on the potential scenario earlier this week on WEEI.

“The fact that they might not make [the playoffs] is a real possibility. So what do you do in that situation? Bergeron’s [36],” Milbury said. “…If he’s going to go any place, he’d want to go somewhere he might win a Stanley Cup. But this is a question that good teams face all the time. They run through a cycle and they get to a point where, you have Bergeron, we have this affinity for him, we love the guy, but if you’re really going to do business the right way, it’s probably time to move on, to be honest with you.  

“It’s time to move on. Go to him, have the conversation. And then to take it a step further, although it would be hard -- it would be really hard to trade Marchand as well -- it’s probably worth a discussion. If you’re going to retool, you need assets to retool, which means you need good draft picks, you might need some great prospects, and both of those guys can bring you that kind of stuff. If you think the time is up for this run, then it’s time to move on and time to make really hard decisions, and they’re risky too. They’re really risky. So that’s where I’m at. It’s a very fair question.”

While I could see the Bruins try to move assets like a Smith and other cogs if this team is scuttling in the standings, I still think you need an outright implosion for this team to consider ever moving guys like Marchand or Bergeron. And even if such a deal is a prudent move when taking a look at the big picture, do you necessarily want this current staff pushing the buttons on said rebuild?

Frankly, I wouldn’t concern myself with the musings of a person with the front-office … resume … like Milbury, especially in this situation. 

12. Fabian Lysell a bright spot in the prospect pool

Well, amid all of the doom and gloom regarding the future of this franchise in the post-Bergeron era — I’ll at least offer some semblance of a silver lining when it comes to the B’s current crown jewel in the system in Fabian Lysell.

Through 23 games with the Vancouver Giants (WHL), Lysell is now up to 28 points — with his assignment to junior hockey looking like the proper first step at getting the 18-year-old winger acclimated to the North American game. 

Lysell’s stock should only continue to soar in the coming weeks, as uber-skilled forward will play for Team Sweden in the upcoming 2022 World Junior Championship in Canada. Lysell should be poised to rack up points in Sweden’s top six, where he will likely earn reps with other talented forwards like Isak Rosen, William Eklund and Alexander Holtz. 

It will be interesting to see if Lysell is ready to make the jump up to the pros after just one season of junior hockey. But the B’s should be very pleased to finally have a high-octane, scoring talent in their prospect pool once again.

13. Beecher vs. Lohrei 

This weekend offered a prime opportunity for two of Boston’s most promising (and intriguing) prospects in the collegiate ranks to go toe-to-toe with one another — with Johnny Beecher and the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines taking on Mason Lohrei and the No. 17 Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Wolverines and Buckeyes eventually split the two-game set — with Michigan taking the first contest, 5-2, before the Buckeyes exacted their revenge on Saturday with a 6-1 win. Beecher failed to record a point in the two-game slate, while Lohrei posted a pair of helpers. 

Now midway through his junior season, it’s still awfully tough to chart out what exactly Beecher’s ceiling is, especially through the lens of a pro career. Due to some dreadful injury luck, Beecher has only logged 60 games at the collegiate level — posting just 28 points during that time. 

On this current Michigan club, Beecher’s veteran status is welcomed, but the fleet-footed power forward is settling more into a role as a defensive, two-way presence further down the lineup — with top-10 picks like Matty Beniers and Kent Johnson carving out top-six roles.

At the next level, perhaps Beecher can thrive in a spot as a bottom-six fixture — capable of a bit more of an offensive spark while also willing to deliver a heavy check. Still, it's a bit of a step below Boston’s previous projections of Beecher and his potential ceiling of a top-six pivot. 

As for Lohrei, the returns have been as advertised for a big-bodied D whose bread and butter remains his playmaking capabilities. Through 15 games now, Lohrei leads the Buckeyes with 13 points on the year.

He’s still a project at this stage of his career, with the 20-year-old blueliner needing to finetune his skating and his D-zone play with the Buckeyes before making the jump up to the pros, but Lohrei’s floor still projects as a playmaking talent and power-play specialist in the NHL ranks.

He’s still a project at this stage of his career, with the 20-year-old blueliner needing to fine-tune his skating and his D-zone play with the Buckeyes before making the jump up to the pros. But Lohrei’s floor still projects as a playmaking talent and power-play specialist in the NHL ranks.

And if he reaches his ceiling? Then the B’s have a special talent on their hands.

14. Promise in Hockey East

Lohrei and Beecher might stand at the forefront of Boston’s prospects in college, but the B’s recent drafting efforts have also populated the pipeline with heaps of talent in the franchise’s backyard in Hockey East.

Boston had two prospects duking it out in the latest Battle of Comm. Ave on Friday, with BU freshman defenseman Ty Gallagher recording three assists in the eventual 3-3 stalemate between the Terriers and Eagles (which BC "won" via a shootout following a scoreless overtime period). 

 Gallagher is looking like a great value pickup for Boston in the seventh round of the 2021 Draft, with the 18-year-old blueliner now up to nine points in 18 games with BU.

Not to be outdone, BC sophomore forward Trevor Kuntar (Third Round, 2020) added a helper for the Eagles on a tally from captain Marc McLaughlin (who will be a sought-after college free agent) — before later scoring in the shootout at Agganis Arena. Kuntar, who projects as a middle-six contributor with some bite to his game — is now up to 10 points in 16 games with the Eagles.

The Eagles will also be adding another B’s prospect to the mix in the coming seasons, as Bruins 2021 fifth-round pick Oskar Jellvik announced his commitment to BC earlier this week. Jellvik has impressed overseas in Sweden’s junior circuit — posting 23 points in 22 games with Djurgårdens IF J20. 

Elsewhere, Providence freshman forward Riley Duran (Sixth Round, 2020) is also looking like a great value add to Boston’s system, with the Woburn native now up to 11 points in 21 games with the Friars.