In the hours and days leading up to the lockout, the Red Sox were a busy bunch, obtaining three starting pitchers -- Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, and James Paxton -- along with two prospects while reacquiring Jackie Bradley Jr.
Given that Paxton, Hill, Bradley and the two prospects were all obtained less than 24 hours before the lockout began, it was if Chaim Bloom had been intent on creating a season-ending cliffhanger for an episodic TV show, building interest for when the new season returns -- whenever that might be.
So, what did it all mean? And where do they go from here?
Some thoughts:
* It would appear that Bloom is not at all concerned with staying under the CBT -- whatever that might be. The Sox were thought to be around $180 in 2022 salary commitments for 2022 (taking into account projected salary arbitration raises). Now, add $6 million for Paxton, $7 million for Wacha and $5 million for Hill. Toss in another few million (the difference between Bradley's salary and what Hunter Renfroe would have gotten in arbitration) and the Sox are already over $200 million. And with Bloom outlining a number of other needs (bullpen help, a righthanded bat) and their continuing interest in bringing back Kyle Schwarber and the Sox seem certain to begin the season at or above the $210 million that represented the floor for 2021. Again, we don't know what the new CBA is going to feature in terms of thresholds. But the Sox are proceeding in a way that suggests they're not watching every dollar or worried about staying under a prescribed figure.
* The Renfroe-for-Bradley swap has more than a few people in the game believing that the Sox are intent on landing Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki, whose posting process was frozen when the lockout went in effect. The thinking: Suzuki could play right field for the Sox, replacing Renfroe both defensively and as a productive right-handed bat. The Sox could then keep Kike Hernandez in center and Alex Verdugo in left. That may well be true, but though one major league source reports the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been the most aggressive in pursuit of Suzuki, teams can hardly be certain of the player's attention. The Sox could, after all, be the highest bidders for Suzuki, only to learn that he would rather play on the West Coast, the way Shohei Ohtani did a few years back. Still, Suzuki would fill an obvious need for the Sox, and importantly, not cost them any draft picks. One major league evaluator who has scouted Suzuki extensively for his club remarked to colleagues recently that Suzuki is, indeed, "a difference-maker.''
* Another line of thinking: the trade signals the Sox' willingness to bring back Schwarber. Again, it's hard to make one move that's contingent on another one that has yet to be completed. And it's not as if Schwarber lacks for suitors, with the Philadelphia Phillies expressing plenty of interest of late. But if Sox wanted the defensively-challenged Schwarber in left on most nights, it would make sense that they would have to standout defenders -- Hernandez and Bradley -- on the roster to help cover for him, or, to have Bradley come off the bench for in the late innings.
* Don't assume that Bradley was obtained to be a regular. In fact, don't assume that he's going to necessarily be here on Opening Day. The Sox know firsthand about Bradley's offensive deficiencies. They saw them up close for almost seven years. And while he can still provide plenty of value with his glove, he was among the handful of worst offensive performers in the game last year. This isn't the National League of the 1980s, when you could hide a player who profiled as well below average offensively. If Bradley stays, he's likely to be a platoon option in center at best -- freeing Hernandez to contribute more often at second base -- or a late-inning defensive replacement. And there would be nothing stopping the Sox from turning around and shipping Bradley elsewhere, perhaps in exchange for another bad contract -- a reliever or starter, perhaps.
* It's dangerous to assume much of anything -- this offseason in particular -- but it would seem, at first blush, that the Sox are done accumulating starting pitching, at least through the free agent market. After all, with the possible exception of lefty Carlos Rodon, who would make for a nice replacement for Eduardo Rodriguez, there's little left from the top of the free agent starter class. Some impressive options remain on the trade front, and the Sox could still try to make a deal for one of several Oakland A's starters or a couple being marketed by the Cincinnati Reds. But it seems the club is comfortable with the likes of Wacha and Hill rounding out the trio of Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta, while possibly having both Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck remain in multi-inning bullpen roles. Wacha and Hill, in particular, would seem suited for four or five innings most times around, with either Whitlock or Houck available to piggyback them to the high-leverage relievers in the eighth or ninth. That, after all, is the distinct trend in the game, with starters lifted before they have to face an opposing lineup for the third time.
* While some have scratched their head over the Bradley-Renfroe swap, it's really not that complicated. Chances are, the Sox recognized Renfroe's value may never be greater than it was after a 31-homer season, and decided to cash out. At the same time, the Sox were taking advantage of their financial might and effectively purchasing two very good prospects to further stock their system. This is all part of Bloom's sustainability goal -- addressing the major league roster while at the same time, deepening the prospect base to provide reinforcements down the road. Corner infielder Alex Binelas has plus-plus power, though needs to make more consistent contact. Think of him as a more polished Blaze Jordan. Meanwhile, middle infielder David Hamilton is athletic with plus-plus speed. He, too, needs improvement on bat-to-ball skills, but he may already be the fastest player in the team's system.
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Lost in the craziness of all the roster shuffling the Sox did this past week is the news that they very nearly acquired catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Miami Herald was the first to report the Red Sox' were involved right down to the wire when the Pirates opted to accept the Marlins' package and two major league sources subsequently confirmed Boston's strong interest.
Stallings, 31, is one of the game's best defensive catchers. He was the N.L. Gold Glove winner in 2021 and is credited by Baseball Info Solutions with 35 defensive runs saved over the last two seasons. Offensively, Stallings is somewhat limited with a career .701 OPS, but even that was better than the .659 OPS Christian Vazquez posted in 2021.
Stallings is now under the Marlins control through 2024 -- three full MLB seasons.
Stallings was dealt to the Marlins for swingman Zach Thompson and two prospects -- former first-rounder Connor Scott, an outfielder, and pitcher Kyle Nicholas, a second-round pick in 2020.
What would the equivalent Red Sox package have been? That's difficult to say, but assume that it would involve a pitcher with at least some major league experience, plus a couple of prospects who were once high draft picks.
It would seem obvious that if the Sox had pulled off the deal, they would have then turned around and dealt Vazquez off to address another need; can't see the Sox holding on to a backup catcher at $7.5 million.
The interest in Stallings would also seem to signal a willingness to move on from Vazquez and upgrade behind the plate, and a recognition that the position is, beyond 2022 when Vazquez is eligible for free agency, unsettled -- as I suggested a few weeks ago.
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As if the news about the lockout wasn't discouraging enough, there's this: Negotiating changes to on-field play is now off the table.
Commissioner Rob Manfred admitted as much in his first lockout press conference.
The hope had been that such proposals as a pitch clock, robotic umps, the "double hook'' (in which teams would lose the use of the DH once the starting pitcher comes out of the game) and other proposals designed to improve the on-field product would be part of a "big picture'' negotiations, incorporated into the proposals along with economic concerns.
That way, it would have been easy to link on-field improvements with financial ones - "We'll agree to free agency after five years, if you agree to a pitch clock.''
No such luck, apparently.
"Frankly, based on the discussions at the table,'' said Manfred, "we saw (the on-field changes) as another contentious issue and tried to put it to one side in an effort to get to an agreement, on the theory that we could deal with it mid-term of the next agreement.''
That means, likely, that the soonest the sides will get to sitting down and re-opening the agreement for on-field rule changes would be after 2022, meaning that the absolute earliest that they could be implemented would be for 2023. And, if the Players Association continues to balk at Manfred's initiatives, as it has in the past, then, yes, Manfred could unilaterally implement. But he would need to wait a full year after that to implement them, meaning no changes until 2024 -- again, at the earliest.
No hurry. It's not like the product on the field and pace-of-play need anyone's immediate attention or anything.
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Finally, Renfroe's departure follows in the tradition of a number of Red Sox players in recent history whose stay with the club was short, but productive.
Here's a list of others:
(Note: to qualify for this list, players must have done what Renfroe did: play a full season, then depart. Players who arrived in the middle of one season and then play an entire season the next, the way, say, Jason Bay did, are not eligible)
1) Adrian Beltre. Beltre spent the 2010 season with the Red Sox, as part of a plan by agent Scott Boras to provide him with a "pillow contract'' -- a way to rebuild his value in the short-term, in order to land a long-term deal afterward. Beltre slashed .321/.365/.563, added 28 homers and 102 RBI to go with a league-leading 49 doubles. He then got a huge deal from the Texas Rangers, for whom he played the final eight years of his career.
2) Nick Esasky. Esasky was obtained in a trade with Cincinnati after the 1988 season and hit 30 homers with 106 RBI for the Sox in 1989. He then signed a three-year deal with Atlanta after the season, but played only nine more games in his MLB career thanks to a debilitating case of vertigo.
3) Todd Walker: Walker arrived for 2003 and contributed 13 homers and 85 RBI and a .760 OPS. Those numbers may not be All-Star level, but Walker was an absolute monster in the postseason that October. In 12 games, Walker hit five homers and slashed .349/.391/.767.
4) Orlando Cepeda. The Red Sox' first DH in 1973, "Cha-Cha" was at the end of his Hall of Fame career, playing on badly damaged knees, but still, at age 35, managed 20 homers and 86 RBI. Cepeda played just 33 more games in the big leagues after leaving Boston.
5) Cody Ross. There wasn't much to like about the disaster that was 2012, but Ross hit 22 homers and had an .807 OPS before signing a free agent deal with Arizona.