In what's likely to be their last move of consequence until a lockout Thursday freezes transactions for a while, the Red Sox signed lefty James Paxton to a one-year deal with two team options.
It's a move that won't pay dividends until late in 2022, when the Red Sox will effectively pay Paxton a $10 million base to continue his rehab from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent last season. But the deal has two club options for both 2023 and 2024 that could bring the total value of the deal to $35 million.
Paxton, who turned 33 last month, is 57-33 with a 3.59 ERA over nine major league seasons, all but two with the Seattle Mariners. For a three-year period between 2017-2019, Paxton was one of the more effective left-handed starters in the game, going 38-17 with a 3.54 with the Mariners and Yankees.
But over the last two seasons, he's been limited to just 21.2 innings for the Mariners. He made one start in the first week of the 2021 season, but lasted just an inning and a third before feeling pain in his elbow. He underwent surgery that same month. Using Chris Sale's rehab schedule from the same procedure -- Sale underwent the surgery on the final day of March of 2020 and return in mid-August of 2021 -- Paxton could return to the mound sometime in August and contribute over the final two months of the season.
BSJ ANALYSIS
The Red Sox can view Paxton as the equivalent of a trade deadline acquisition for this season, arriving for the stretch run at a time when the demands of the season may be taking their toll on the rest of the club's starting rotation.
There's a real gamble here for the Red Sox, since similar deals for rehabbing pitchers in recent years have not produced the desired results. Corey Kluber signed a one-year deal with the Yankees last winter, but made just 16 starts and missed almost all of June, July and August.
Additionally, Paxton has a checkered past when it comes to his injury history, having been sidelined with arm and back woes throughout his career. He's never made as many as 30 starts in a single season or topped 161 innings.
But the real value for the Sox would come after 2022.
If Paxton pitches well enough -- or, at the very least, makes enough progress physically -- the Sox could bring him back for 2023 at a time when they might need established starting pitching. Nathan Eovaldi is a free agent after 2022, meaning, for now, the only veteran major league starters will have under their control for 2023 will be Sale and Nick Pivetta.
Still, there's more work to do to get ready for the start of the 2022 season, since the Sox have yet to adequately replace the loss of Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77 million deal with the Detroit Tigers last month and leaves a gaping hole in the rotation, after Eovaldi.
The team has been tepid in its exploration of the free-agent market to date, signing only Michael Wacha as a back-end depth option last month.
A number of mid-rotation starters remain on the free-agent market -- including Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon and Tyler Anderson -- along with a number of available trade targets. The Oakland A's have signaled a willingness to deal a number of their players as they attempt to lower payroll and begin a rebuild, and have Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt available. The cost, however, will be significant for any team.
Additionally, the Cincinnati Reds are said to be willing to listen on Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo and the Florida Marlins have enough inventory of pitching that someone like Pablo Lopez could be had the right group of prospects.