NFL Notebook: Greg Cosell breaks down Titans, some questions on Patriots, and AFC contenders

From time to time I like to get a different perspective on the Patriots, and my go-to guy is always Executive Producer/Analyst for NFL Matchup and NFL Films, Greg Cosell. The czar only goes by the film, he watches the rest of the league, he plays no favorites, so he's going to give you his honest opinion about what he's seeing relative to the rest of the league.

We talked a lot about the state of the Titans, the prospects for Mac Jones and the Patriots' zone defense, the seemingly unstoppable Matthew Judon, and took stock of the other AFC contenders.

You're can listen to the pod for the full breakdown 

Here are the highlights from our conversation with the man who a lot of people around the league greatly respect:

They're coming off a tough loss to the Texans which wasn't quite as poor as people think and have a ton of injuries ... just where do you think the Titans are at this point in time?

Well, right now the biggest issue for the Titans is their offense. Because with all the injuries, they've really struggled to do two things, which are the way they play are very, very important. They do not run the ball very well at all right now. And in fact, they'll go with Dontrell Hilliard probably as their feature back. ... But they can't run the ball, and over the last three games, they produce no explosive plays on offense. They've had three 20-plus-yard completions in the last three games. One was a screen. One was a quick slant to Marcus Johnson, who's also an IR and finished for the season, that he happened to run after catch to make it a big gain. And the third one was this past week against Houston, in which Houston busted the coverage. So they've really had no explosive pass plays. So when you look at an offense that can't run the ball and can't create explosive pass plays, you're going to struggle in this league. And one final point, and it's probably going to be true again this week. The three receivers who played the most snaps for them last week were Dez Fitzpatrick, a fourth-round pick who they cut and brought back, Chester Rodgers, who's been around the league, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. And given that AJ Brown has been placed on IR, I would imagine that will be the case again.

Not exactly running on all cylinders.

They have really struggled offensively. Their defense is actually been very good. There's nothing wrong with their defense. They did not lose last week because of their defense. Now they have a lot of injuries there as well. Their front with Jeffrey Simmons, Denico Autry,  and Harold Landry has been a really really good front. Simmons is a really outstanding player, one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL.

What kind of coverages and how much pressure do the Titans bring?

The Titans have not been a high-pressure defense at all over this last year. Their MO in this winning streak has been for man pressure, and when they play nickel, they predominantly would play zone coverage and when they played a dime, they play a much higher percentage of man coverage. That has really been kind of their MO. The secondary seems to be okay. They're probably more of a single-high based defense than a split safety based defense but they do play a meaningful amount of two shell. So they're one of those defenses and we're very conscious of this when we do pieces in the Matchup show. When someone plays against Tennessee, we pretty much say, 'Oh, we can probably show an offensive play against pretty much any coverage,' because Tennessee does kind of do that. But they are not a heavy blitz team at all.

Will Mike Vrabel channel his inner Bill Belichick and take away say, Hunter Henry from Mac Jones on third down and in the red zone, or will they just play it more straight?

I don't think that's what they normally do. Mac Jones has played very well given what he's been asked to do. But this is a running football team. If you add up (Rhamondre) Stevenson's carries and (Damien) Harris's carries they have more carries combined than Jonathan Taylor. This is a running football team and they do it old school. They do it without the quarterback being a factor in the run game. They do it with the quarterback under center. Almost 85% of Harris's and Stevenson's rushes this year have come with Mac Jones under center. So they are old school. And I think that's what's been lost because obviously everybody focuses on the quarterback and deservedly so, Mac Jones has played extremely well, but they're not tossing the ball around the yard. This is not the way they play offense, and Mac Jones has been incredibly efficient in what they do. But it all starts for them with a run game.

Last week against the Falcons, Dean Pees seemed to get Mac a couple times on some pressures for sacks. Are you at all alarmed about that? Or is that just a typical rookie quarterback — he'll learn from it that sort of thing?

Oh, I think you'll learn. Dean Pees has been doing this a long time. He was obviously with New England at one point. I think he's a master at showing something before the snap and then what it looks like after the snap is different. He's been doing that his whole career. I think we've reached a point with Mac Jones where we just expect him to play like he's a 10-year veteran and he's not a 10-year veteran. And there are going to be things that he just doesn't see as quickly as we kind of think he will see, just because for the most part he's played that way. But there are going to be things that he has shown that he's not quite seen, or it takes him an extra beat or two to really decipher it and you know, in the NFL, if you have to wait an extra beat or two, it's a problem. They've done such a good job of talking about the coaches in New England, Coach Belichick, Coach McDaniels are really controlling the situation for Mac Jones, that he's not really had to play in a lot of bad situations. And they've been able to really keep him from having to do that. So when he does sort of get stuck in the pocket, which doesn't happen very often, but it happened a few times in that game, we're surprised by it. But it happened and it will happen again.

To compound the Stephon Gilmore trade, Jonathan Jones went on IR, and they played a lot of zone since then. My question is, how long can they continue to do that and play the way that they are defensively, which is really well of late?

I've kind of enjoyed watching their defense when you're right they played a lot more zone. And I think they'll do what Coach Belichick thinks is best. We know he's very opponent-specific. Who knows? You could see him, because of the nature of the receivers this week that Tennessee puts out there, decide you know what, this is a week I can play man. But you're exactly right. I think this defense is fascinating. And you know, there's a little bit of a trend in the league with teams. A lot of teams are playing essentially big nickel as their base defense. The Cowboys do it. Washington does it. But you know, to me, Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips are so key to what this defense does, because of their multi-dimensional traits and their abilities because they're essentially safeties who play linebacker, and they don't really get hurt badly by the run game. So, you know, I think it's a really fascinating defense, but I would think that they'll continue to play zone if he's, depending on the opponent, they're certainly comfortable doing it. They still have a corner in JC Jackson, who can line up against anybody that I know they feel comfortable with him if they have to line him up and play man coverage. He's a very good man coverage defender so we'll see but you're right, since Jones went out they really haven't played as much man ... I always looked at the Patriots in recent years anyway as front multiplicity and coverage consistency in the coverage consistency was they played a lot of man and they did a lot with their fronts. That's always been a Bill Belichick thing, but that has not been quite the case as much this season.

How come teams aren't taking care of Matthew Judon every week, or are they trying to and he's just been that good?

Well, some of that has to do with what they do with their fronts because sometimes you can set your front where it's very difficult to double team. You can always double team with the back, then it depends on the team and their philosophy. Every offense would like to get five (receivers) out. I mean, that's what you'd like to do. But sometimes you can't if you can't protect. I think there was a sense with Matthew Judon coming from where he came from in Baltimore, that he was a piece of a really good defense that was highly schemed, and that while he put up some good numbers, he wasn't necessarily just a pure edge pass rusher on his own, that he was kind of a moveable chess piece player, which is one reason why, when Bill Belichick signed him, everybody said what a great signing because he was sort of that guy that you could line up anywhere. We know that Coach Belichick likes those smart guys. I mean, look, he does that with Kyle Van Noy. He does that with Dont'a Hightower. These are guys who move around an awful lot, particularly when they're in their dime subpackage There was a sense Judon was more than that guy, then hey, let's line them up on the edge and rush the quarterback. He's become more of that guy this year. And apparently, he's very good at it. But they still move a lot of players around and over the last number of weeks. Christian Barmore, another player who can line up in multiple positions across the defensive front whether you're talking zero technique, one technique, two technique, three technique, 4i on the edge, he's another one of those players that can line up in multiple positions and be a factor as a pass rusher. So all of a sudden you're dealing with a defensive front that not only is multiple in its alignments, because that's always what Coach Belichick has wanted to do and has done, but now you have individual players who can win. And he didn't always have that. He always had to sort of manufacture pressure. Now he can still manufacture pressure, but he's got individuals who can win one on one.

Wanted to sort of get your quickie assessment on where some of these other AFC teams are that the Patriots will be jockeying for position against, starting with the Colt who seem to be coming on strong.

Well, the Colts have clearly established an offensive identity that now starts with Jonathan Taylor, although Carson Wentz has played well. But he's in a good situation. They're very effective with play-action both in the gun and with Wentz under center. But there have been games where Wentz has not had to throw it a whole lot in some ways like Mac Jones, and apparently their O line is healthy. I saw that Quinten Nelson was a full participant in practice this week. So he's obviously good to go. So they are clearly built on their offensive line as the foundation and Taylor who's a really really good back and is running better this year after a year in the league. You can just see that patience ... a lot of backs just want to take the ball and go, you know, but in the NFL, there's a certain there's a very fine line and a balance that needs to be developed. And sometimes it takes time between patience and decisiveness. And that takes time. And I think Taylor has really found that now. He was my number one back coming out last year as a runner, and I think he's now playing to the traits that were very evident in college.

The issue for them is potentially on defense because they're playing with two backup safeties. And I think that's impacted the way they play on defense tactically and they can be beaten, they're vulnerable, their backup safeties, it's George Odom and Andrew Sendejo, who seems like to me he's been in the league for 30 years. But he's hanging around and he plays.

The Bills?

If you look at the Bills, they're clearly trying to develop a running game that has value. They'll never be a high-volume run team or a run-first team. But they were getting stuck, which some teams do, in just throwing it too much. And it's not just the quarterback then who potentially has an issue. Their o-line is not good enough to throw the ball 40-45 times a game by choice. It's just not good enough and Josh Allen takes the brunt-end of the criticism, and there's nothing wrong with Josh Allen. I mean, he's a really talented player. I personally he's the most physically gifted quarterback in the league. I think his physical gifts are off the charts. So they're trying to really run the ball and see and sort of make their offense more balanced.

Obviously, the loss of Tre'Davious White is huge defensively for them and we'll see. They have not really used him as a matchup corner. He plays boundary corner and Levi Wallace plays field corner. So it doesn't mean that they can't match up to teams because that's not the way they used to White, but he was so good. He's he was such a good zone corner. He had such a great feel for routes, a great feel for ... not covering grass because you see too many defenders when they're playing zone if things go away from them, they just stand there. White had such a great feel for squeezing routes, for going finding receivers even in zone, you know, so that's a big loss for them.

Where do you see the Chiefs and then the Ravens at this point?

The Chiefs' defense has played exceptionally well over the last three, four weeks. And that's a big deal because you know, offensively, I think they're working their way back. (Patrick) Mahomes had become a player as gifted as he is and he's a high-level trait player as well, obviously, but he started to play with too much unnecessary movement. He started to play too much outside of structure. They're working him back with the way they're playing now. A lot more quick game throws, get the ball out, take what's there. I'm sure they'll start working now toward pushing the ball down the field a little bit more. You can't live off secondary action, outside of structure plays no matter how good you are at those things, and Mahomes may well be the best in the league at that. But it's still too hard to do that that can't be the foundation of an offense. And I think they've they realize that and they're working to get him back on track and he's getting there. Their defense dominated Dallas a week ago. Dallas couldn't run the ball. They got great pressure on Dak Prescott. So with the way their defense is playing, their offense can kind of work slowly back into being a really, really good offense again.

Baltimore's an interesting team, I know they win, and obviously there's something there that's good, but they're a tough team for me to evaluate. I still don't know if their pass game is high level. Their defense has not been as good this year overall, as it's been in years past. So yes, they win. But I'm very curious to see where they go. Lamar Jackson, obviously be back this week. He's still the most dynamic running threat at the quarterback position in the league. I think they'll probably do a lot of that. He throws it better, but I still wouldn't say that they're a team that is a passing team. So it's, like I said, they're a tough team for me to evaluate.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. I really wanted to take the Titans with the points this week as the line went from New England -2 to 6.5 and now to 7 points, but Tennessee just doesn't have enough bodies on either side of the ball. Besides A.J. Brown, the Titans are missing starting LBs David Long and Rashaan Evans and CB Greg Mabin. And Tennessee had to elevate four players from the practice squad. If the Titans find a way to steal this game, just hand Mike Vrabel the coach of the year trophy right now. Patriots 27, Titans 10.

2. One thing that is definitely going for the Patriots: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown at least one interception in all seven games he has played in at Gillette, regular and post-season. The Patriots brought a lot of pressure against Tannehill in the 2019 Titans playoff victory that ended Tom Brady's Patriots career.

3. Patriots line coach Carm Bricillo talked about the decision to send Mike Onwenu to the bench when Trent Brown returned, which doesn't seem like it's going to change after the mini-bye week. "We'll see how this thing plays out. ... I think Mike does a good job. We always talk about the more you can do. And I think it's attributed to Mike and the fact that he is able to play a multitude of positions from left guard to right guard to right tackle, and that's a good thing. I don't think there's anything hindering his development one way or the other. We ask multiple guys to play multiple positions. We just talked about Teddy Karras, who will play center to left guard to right guard. Our tackles can play multiple things.... So I don't see that as a hindrance or a negative at all. I think it's a good thing. And I think it's a tribute to Mike and his abilities and his character."

4. Leave it to Bills coach Sean McDermott to complain about something after his team's 31-6 victory over the undermanned Saints. This time it was the lack of roughing calls for his QB, Josh Allen. "I thought they should be called for one, quite honestly, on Josh,” McDermott told reporters. “I’m really frustrated that that doesn’t get called. That’s clear as day to see that. I just want to protect my quarterback.” Allen has drawn 20 roughing the passer calls since he entered the league, while Tom Brady has eight in the same period of time. Maybe Allen shouldn't do this as much ...

5. It's good to hear that JC Jackson, who will be a free agent after this season, enjoys playing for the Patriots so much. "I love playing for the New England Patriots, playing under Coach Belichick,” Jackson told reporters this week. “I have grown as a football player since I’ve been here. ... It’s a place that gave me a chance from day one. I would love to be a New England Patriot for a long time.” But it takes two to tango. It's believed Jackson will be looking for a huge payday when he gets a contract extension (Patriots have the franchise tag to use). Hard to see him settling for less than $19 million per season and $65 million guaranteed.