Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours from all of us here at BSJ. I can speak for everyone when I say that we are very thankful for your continued support that has sustained us for four-plus years. Hard to believe, really. Have a great day and enjoy being around families and friends.
Some checkdowns and deep shots on this holiday:
1. It will be very interesting to see what happens with Josh McDaniels this hiring cycle. McDaniels is expected to be the hot candidate after his work with Mac Jones and almost entirely new personnel on offense. Put that together with his work with Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Cassel and, of course, Tom Brady, and McDaniels would have to be very enticing for a team looking for a head coach to groom a young quarterback. But how many openings will there be? We know Vegas, and Chicago seems to be almost a forgone conclusion. Denver could also happen, but it would be the upset of the century if the Broncos even entertain bringing back McDaniels. If the Vikings don't make the playoffs, that's a strong spot. Outside of that? Hard to see it. Miami, Houston, the Giants are possible. You also can't rule out the two most recent college hires, Urban Meyer and Matt Rhule, pulling a Nick Saban and retreating to the college game. A darkhorse possible opening? It's very long odds, but if the 49ers fail to make the playoffs ... can't rule out a possible John Lynch power play.
2. So not a huge market. Both the Jaguars and Giants — to a lesser extent Carolina — messed up big time by not even interviewing McDaniels when they hired their coaches. The Raiders, Bears and Jaguars would be the best possible fits for McDaniels. Vegas and Chicago would clear everyone out and give McDaniels a chance to wire things his way. Jacksonville has Trevor Lawrence and would entertain giving McDaniels control but I think he would work well with Trent Baalke, at least at the start. Minnesota has a strong GM in Rick Spielman and he'll likely have a huge say — he has no known relationship with McDaniels and will stay close to his roots. Can't see Houston. Miami is possible but an unlikely match. Giants would be a good spot but doubt that opens this time around.
3. Will the presence of Mac Jones entice McDaniels to stick around? One thing that has to happen this time around, to eliminate the chance of another Indianapolis debacle, is Bill Belichick needs to give McDaniels some indication of how long he's going to stay — before this all starts. If Belichick is planning on another three years max, that's one thing. If he's undetermined (which is likely), then McDaniels may have to go now. I'm sure having Jones for a decade-plus will be enticing, but even if McDaniels eventually ascends, does he want to just continue on with Belichick's work, or does he want his own legacy? McDaniels will be 46 next season. He can still remain patient if he chooses, but it's now 11 years since he was done in Denver. Belichick only waited five years for his next chance. But another factor just to wait it out: McDaniels' kids are starting to get to the age where changing what they've known most of their lives may be a tough choice. Plus, we don't even know how the Krafts feel about McDaniels, but it's believed they have a strong affinity for each other.
4. One thing to keep in mind for his hiring cycle — both for McDaniels and Jerod Mayo — is the rules have changed. "Teams are allowed to interview a candidate for a head coach position during the final two weeks of the regular season with the consent of the employer club. The interview can be virtual, and once the employing team gives consent, the candidate will be able to interview for any open head coach role. A position is considered "open" if the head coach that started the season is no longer employed by the club, or has received notice he will no longer be with the club in the following season." That means starting Sunday night, Dec. 26, teams can request interviews if they have moved on from their coach. You could see teams make changes right around then to get a jump on the best candidates.
5. If McDaniels goes, what happens? Do not be alarmed for Jones should McDaniels leave. One of the smartest decisions Belichick ever made was to make the Patriots playbook permanent. Whoever comes in next, will work from the same book. It would be an upset if Bill O'Brien is not the first call — Belichick has enormous respect for him and O'Brien loves to come back home, he does so every summer. Saban is not going to stand in the way of that. Plus, O'Brien would be in a perfect spot to succeed Belichick — which has already been entertained previously, according to Seth Wickersham's book. After O'Brien, it would likely fall to internal candidates like TEs coach Nick Caley or WRs coach Mick Lombardi, with a heavy assist from Belichick (this is how O'Brien started).
6. Mayo is ambitious and would follow the Brian Flores/Joe Judge script. Mayo's camp pushed him hard last hiring cycle and he impressed on interviews in both Houston and Philadelphia. The landscape for him here is cloudy with Steve Belichick holding playcalling duties the past two years. Flores could have used more seasoning but he jumped at a good opportunity in Miami. Same with Judge with the Giants. The thinking is, there's only 32 of those jobs in the world and you need to strike while the iron is hot. It's believed Mayo would jump at any opening, and it's hard to blame him.
7. Some areas for improvement for the Patriots after the mini-bye self-scout:
Offense
- Better first down production (18th in league)
- That would help second down conversions (24th)
- 3rd-and-10-plus (26th)
- Pass better vs. blitz (21st)
- Inside the 30-yard line scoring (24th)
- Eliminate rushes for negative yards (31st in the league ... they have 31 and 22 is league average)
Defense
- 3rd and short (4 or less) ... 20th in league.
- Rushes of 4+ yards on first down (13th)
- Points allowed on first possession (22nd)
8. Amazing how far the Patriots have come on offensive big plays. They are tied for second in the league in 20-plus plays now after a very slow start there. That shows the growth of this offense, McDaniels' understanding how to deploy what he has, and the players catching on to the system. Imagine if they got Jonnu Smith going. Feeling it this week.
9. One of the big unknown answers facing the Patriots in the final months of the season will be how Jones, who hails from Jacksonville and played at Alabama, will handle playing in the cold. He doesn't think it will be an issue. "I think just take each day day-by-day and try not to focus on it too much and just wear whatever you're supposed to wear and take the advice from the older people that have played a lot in the cold and just trying to figure it out," he said. "It's just another challenge, but you just have to look at it positively, like as if it was raining or really windy or whatever the situation is. It's football, and you're going to have days where it's cold and days where it's. windy and days when it's raining, so you have to be ready for all situations." Jones has not yet worn a scuba suit — Brady's apparel of choice in the cold — and he's relying on Brian Hoyer to help. "Just asking Brian a lot of questions, really," Jones said. "Just that, and then, you know, you can't wear too much, but you also don't want to wear too little, but at the end of the day, it's just a mental thing, and you got to just battle through it and take each experience and see what you can do better. If you think you're too cold, then put more on and vice versa. ... Not a lot of days when it's really cold, but I've thrown in colder than (practice), and it's going to get even more cold, so just getting ready for that. I mean, you can't really predict or prepare, it's not like you can go throw it in a refrigerator or something or freezer. You just got to go out there and do it, and it is what it is." Jones said he has not experiment with a glove. One thing going for him: Jones' hands measured 9 3/4 at the combine, which is a good hand size for dealing with the elements.
10. Kind of amazing that both the Patriots and Colts will both be coming off their bye weeks before facing off, after the schedule change, at 8:20 p.m. on Saturday, Dec. 18th. Nice to see both teams will have the same rest going into what could be a huge game in the AFC landscape. I would be worried about Frank Reich having a bye to prepare for the Patriots' defense — like the Eagles' Super Bowl. Then again, he does have Carson Wentz to corral.
Also amazing: How the Patriots are fully healthy — they even got sixth-round pick safety Joshuah Bledsoe back on the practice field to start his IR clock — while the Titans had 10 players miss practice and they made 13 roster moves, including signing defensive back Buster Skrine, running back Dontrell Hilliard and outside linebacker John Simon — to the active roster. Talk about getting a team at the right time. This season is turning into a war of attrition and the Patriots are lapping the field to this point.