As they begin the business of remaking their roster for the 2022 season, the Red Sox have the luxury of possessing a strong bargaining chip to dangle in trades: first baseman Bobby Dalbec.
The return of J.D. Martinez covers the Red Sox at the DH position, and the team's announced interest in re-signing Kyle Schwarber gives them -- potentially, at least -- someone who could mine the first base position for 2022.
Waiting in the wings is the organization's top-rated prospect, Triston Casas, also a first baseman. Casas enjoyed a terrific season at Double-A, starred for Team USA in the Olympics and was recently named to the Arizona Fall League All-Star team. Casas could be ready to contribute to the big league team by midseason, giving the Sox an additional option at first.
Meanwhile, Dalbec, with a little over a year of major league service time, is the perfect lure as the Sox attempt to fill other needs. He's young, inexpensive, and especially if Schwarber is re-signed, somewhat redundant.
Moreover, Dalbec flashes plus-power. with 25 homers in just 417 at-bats, and among Red Sox players who played at least half a season, just three players topped his .493 slugging percentage: Rafael Devers (.538), J.D. Martinez (.518) and Hunter Renfroe (.501).
Yes, Dalbec's high strikeout rate (he fanned 34.4 percent of the time, almost one-third more than the league average of 23.3 percent) puts a drag on his value. But teams are accustomed to absurdly high strikeout totals and most would be willing to accept them as a tradeoff for Dalbec's power potential. At 26, capable of playing both corner infield spots and not eligible for arbitration for two more seasons, Dalbec is great trade bait.
If those so chose, the Sox could move him and expect to acquire a decent starting pitching option, or perhaps some bullpen help -- two of their most pressing needs.
But a decision to trade Dalbec shouldn't be entered into lightly by the Red Sox.
As inconsistent as he was at times, especially in the first half, Dalbec may have turned a corner over the final two months. In August, he was named American League Rookie of the Month with a 1.205 OPS). And over the second half of the season, Dalbec posted a .955 OPS. That's the kind of number, achieved over an entire season, that gets you mentioned in the conversation for MVP.
However, it's Dalbec's secondary numbers that are really eye-popping.
He finished third among American League regulars in the number of barreled balls -- hard-hit balls, at the optimum launch angle -- behind only Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr., the latter two of the most highly-regarded players in the game. He also finished in the top 10 percent of all hitters in average exit velocity, and in the top 15 percent in percentage of hard-hit balls.
The trick for Dalbec, of course, will be to make more consistent contact in order to access his power more frequently. If he could reduce his strikeouts even 20 percent, it's frightening to think what he could accomplish by merely putting the ball in play more often.
"I'll tell you what -- we'd take him,'' said a longtime front office member of a major league club. "There's a lot to like about him. His power is off the charts. And I know he struggled with the glove (in the first half), but I have him as a major league average defender there.''
Indeed, Dalbec's struggles in the field seemed to be tied to his issues at the plate. Once he began to take over in the batter's box, his confidence at first seemed to elevate his play there. Over the final two months of the season, Dalbec improved markedly when it came to his range and his ability to dig out low throws.
The danger the Red Sox face is moving on from him before he establishes his full value. If Dalbec remains prone too high strikeout totals, he may never graduate beyond a platoon player and streaky hitter -- albeit one capable of tape-measure shots on the sporadic occasions when his swing is locked in. But he also could continue to develop as a hitter, improve his swing decisions, increase his walk rate and become an All-Star caliber player on whom the Sox prematurely sold low.
Such a call -- deal or hold -- may not come until they know whether they can bring back Schwarber. But the Sox should use that time to evaluate exactly what they'd be trading before committing to doing so.