Even before the offseason officially commences, a narrative has emerged for the Red Sox: when it comes to J.D. Martinez and Kyle Schwarber, it would seem the Sox can have one or the other -- but not both.
As early as Sunday -- and no later than Monday -- Martinez must inform the Red Sox whether he intends to remain with the Sox for the fifth season of his five-year deal, or elect free agency.
Similarly, Schwarber has a decision of his own to make, though it's much more predictable. He's widely expected to not exercise his half of a mutual option for 2022 and will instead explore the market.
Conventional wisdom has it that if Martinez opts-in for $19.375 million, that will effectively close the door on a return for Schwarber. Like Martinez, Schwarber is limited defensively and the feeling is, the Sox don't have room -- financially or in terms of playing time -- for both.
But perhaps that's not at all accurate. In fact, according to an industry source, the Red Sox have discussed a scenario in which both players return for 2022.
Even publicly, the Sox have shown a willingness to make such an arrangement work. On more than one occasion, members of the management team pointed out that the Sox were at their best in 2021 with both Martinez and Schwarber in the lineup together.
And when chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, while acknowledging there were challenges to have both on the team in 2022, pointedly noted: "Talent is talent.''
Translation: We could figure it out.
There would be obstacles, of course. From a payroll standpoint, in addition to laying out nearly $20 million for Martinez, the Sox would have to give Schwarber a multi-year commitment. Several evaluators believe that Schwarber, who has on-base ability to go with his slugging style, could command an AAV (average annual value) of $15 million.
But the Red Sox are in a position to spend some money this winter. Dustin Pedroia's money is now off the books, though the team still owes David Price, now pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers, $16 million for 2022, the final year of his deal which the Sox agreed to partly (half) assume as part of the Mookie Betts deal.
The team's remaining long-term commitments, however, are negligible. Chris Sale has another three years and $85 million remaining and Xander Bogaerts has $80 million due him over the next four years -- assuming he doesn't opt out after 2022.
After those, the Sox don't have a single multi-year deal on the books, providing them with some flexibility, though, at some point, the team will need to address a long-term extension for Rafael Devers.
The tougher fit would be roles and playing time.
Martinez remains someone whose best position is the batter's box. He can occasionally contribute in the outfield, starting 36 games there last year. Martinez can make the routine play, but doesn't cover much ground and the team's outfield defense suffers when he's in left field. Meanwhile, Martinez has battled chronic lower back and foot issues which seem to be exacerbated by increased playing time in the field.
Schwarber, too, is a player of limited defensive value, though he can at least play some first base, a position Martinez has never tried.
Still, despite their challenges defensively, the Red Sox are a formidable offense when both Schwarber and Martinez are in the lineup together. Martinez may have slipped some as a hitter since joining the Sox -- his OPS has dropped in each season since signing with the Sox prior to 2018 -- but he tied for the major league lead in doubles (42) and his slugging percentage (.512) was still formidable.
Schwarber, meanwhile, is a different type of hitter -- more selective, but with less regular contact (.266 batting average). He finished with the 11th-highest on-base percentage (.374) while also cracking 34 homers, while missing almost a quarter of the season due to a hamstring strain.
The Sox managed to have the two co-exist on the roster for a period of about six weeks, with Schwarber obtained July 29, but unable to play because of injury until mid-August. But could they make it work for an entire season?
Perhaps.
Such a plan would require some delicate balancing, but isn't out of the question.
Under such a plan, the Sox would have either Martinez or Schwarber in the lineup as a DH. The other would then need to be squeezed into the lineup at a defensive position, with Martinez in left field and Schwarber either in left or at first base.
The biggest loser in this scenario could be first baseman Bobby Dalbec, who saw his playing time virtually eliminated in the postseason (12 at-bats in 11 games, with just two starts, both when Martinez was unavailable due to a sprained ankle). If the Sox were intent on having Schwarber play a significant number of games at first, it would make little sense to keep Dalbec around to start a third or so of the games, especially since it's fair to wonder how effective a hitter he'd be without the benefit of consistent playing time.
The Sox could always trade Dalbec to address additional needs (pitching), knowing that his strong second-half (.955 OPS with 15 homers in 61 games) served to boost his trade value. And by 2023, top prospect Triston Casas could be ready to take over at first, with Schwarber moved to full-time while Martinez moves on.
All of this is predicated on a number of factors, of course. Martinez must opt-in, and Schwarber must be willing to get shoehorned into the lineup next season, while being satisfied with a long-term deal. A lot could still go wrong.
But the notion that they can't co-exist simply isn't accurate.