After watching some Bucs film the past couple of days, here are the top three factors I'm confident in for the Patriots against the Bucs, three factors I'm worried about, and my game pick.
CONFIDENT LIST
1. Patriots can control the game with a spread-out passing game.
It's certainly true, with the way the roster is constructed and with a rookie pocket quarterback, that the Patriots need to play a certain way offensively to be ultimately successful. And it's not all that dissimilar from the latter years of Tom Brady's tenure. The Patriots need to be able to control the game up front, run the ball effectively, be able to use playaction, live in the middle of the field, and take a few well-timed and schemed shot plays.
While it hasn't worked well to this point, mostly because of a subpar offensive line, the Patriots are not going anywhere long-term this season unless they can do those things.
But that's not how they're going to have to operate come Sunday night.
The Patriots should take the same approach that Dallas did in the opener, and the Rams largely did last week: don't even try to run the ball. With Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh and Steven McClendon inside, there's no way the Patriots can run successfully. Might as well skip first down and move to 2nd and 10. Even Shaq Barrett and rookie Joe Tryon (Jason Pierre-Paul if he's healthy) are good on the edge against the run. And then you factor in Devin White and Lavonte David at linebacker filling gaps ... good luck.
The Patriots need to spread things out with their tight ends, receivers and running backs, and they need to dink and dunk all night to tire out the pass rush, and keep the pressure on a thin and underwhelming secondary. Mac Jones can do that. He's probably more comfortable that way. He did it in the second half against the Dolphins.
2. Playing two deep safeties will slow Bucs down, and irritate Brady.
You know Brady wants to come in here and throw bombs to all his shiny weapons. You know, the kind Bill Belichick never got him (in Brady's mind). Don't let him. Park two safeties back there (and I might even move Jonathan Jones or Jalen Mills to safety or promote Myles Bryant in this game because I don't trust Kyle Dugger in space) along with six and seven defensive backs (also promote D'Angelo Ross) and Brady will be forced to, run the ball, take the extra money in the pass game, or hold the ball longer, which invites hits. All of those are good outcomes for the Patriots.
The Rams did this very effectively for stretches last Sunday.
3. Go after Mike Edwards at safety.
It seems like the Bucs like to put starting safety Jordan Whitehead in the box, and insert Mike Edwards (No. 32) in at safety. When that happens, the Patriots should go right after him, especially by running over and under routes that make him choose. He doesn't choose, he freezes.
The Rams got two huge plays on Sunday going after Edwards. Patriots should do the same.
WORRY LIST
1. A motivated and unflustered Brady.
There's been some chatter about Brady being emotional, and how the Patriots hope that happens. Come on. Outside of the first drives in Super Bowls, I never heard anyone ask, "Geez, I hope Brady can stay within himself this week or else we have no shot." I mean, seriously? He's Tom Effing Brady! Patriots were never more confident than when Brady went into a game red-assed, and I'm going to assume that he will in this one (and his teammates will be more focused to give him the only gift he wants this season).
To stop Brady on the field, you're going to have to hit him, hopefully with only four-man pressure (Giants Super Bowl gameplans), and hit him some more. The Rams got to him a few times and Brady got sped up and spooked.
If Brady doesn't see ghosts and start bobbing up and down in the pocket on Sunday night, the Patriots have no chance.
2. Right end Joe Tryon.
Everyone mentions the interior guys, Barrett and JPP, but no one ever mentions the first-round pick lining up over the left tackle.
I am very, very worried if Isaiah Wynn has to try to block Joe Tryon all night. The 6-5, 262-pounder is a physical freak. If I'm the Patriots, I'm hoping JPP plays and cuts into Tryon's playing time.
The Rams were worried about him — they chipped him all game long. The Rams are smart.
3. If the Bucs go tempo.
In addition to telling all his teammates and coaches all the bad stuff Belichick has said about them over the years (I'm sure Brady will make up a few slights), you know Brady knows the Patriots are going to try to play the game on their terms. In fact, one of the Patriots, I think it was Lawrence Guy, said those exact words this week at the podium.
The Patriots want to play this game in the mud. They want as few plays as possible in this one. That means dink and dunk for the Pats. That means tackling very well for the defense.
Brady has to be telling the Bucs they need to be prepared to speed the game up themselves by going tempo. If that happens, the Patriots could be in trouble. The Bucs have the experience and speed advantage. The Patriots are still in Week 4 trying to figure each other out. Plus, guys like Matthew Judon, Kyle Van Noy and Dont'a Hightower don't seem physically ready to play at that tempo.
Patriots need a very slow game.
BETUS.COM GAME PICK
Bucs (-7; 49 o/u) over Patriots
I spent the better half of the last decade saying, "Never underestimate the competitive animal inside Tom Brady." Well, why should that change now after what he did last season?
Brady has too much intel, too many weapons, too much speed and power on defense, to lose this game. The only way the Patriots have a chance is Brady throws an early Super Bowl-ish pick six, and the Patriots create points on special teams.
The Bucs and, mostly, Brady are just too good at this point in the season (later might have been different).
Bucs 30, Patriots 16