Some of this offseason’s biggest signings happened outside of free agency. The 76ers kept Joel Embiid around long-term, Trae Young and Luka Doncic signed rookie extensions with the Hawks and Mavericks. Clint Capela, Kevin Durant, Terry Rozier, Julius Randle and Jimmy Butler chose to remain with their teams long-term as well. Kawhi Leonard quietly re-upped with the Clippers as an injured free agent.
The Celtics led the way by locking up Marcus Smart, Robert Williams III and Josh Richardson for additional years. The moves, curious to some at first as thwarting Boston's chance at clearing future cap space, foresaw a seismic change in team-building. As Bobby Marks wrote this week for ESPN, the era of free agency for stars is over for the foreseeable future. Teams need trade flexibility if they want to be in position to acquire franchise-altering talent. Players appear to have the option to force their way out of long-term deals via trade, making these extensions far from security, instead opening a pseudo free agency on-call.
“I always tell my client to take the money now in an extension and worry about the future later," an agent told Marks. "We can always force a trade later and it would be reckless giving up guaranteed money now.”
The trend faces an early test in Ben Simmons, who’s seeking an immediate trade and holding out of training camp. The 76ers seem interested in moving on too, a key difference, but are not in any rush to do so before they find a deal of their liking. Simmons, signed in Philadelphia through 2025, reportedly won’t play another game for the Sixers.
ESPN Sources: Philadelphia 76ers All-Star Ben Simmons will not report for opening of training camp next week and intends to never play another game for the franchise. Simmons hasn’t spoken to team since a late August meeting when he communicated this message to Sixers officials.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) September 21, 2021
James Harden held out briefly in Atlanta, but didn't skip games for the Rockets. He did demand a trade to begin last season, in only the second year of a three-year extension with a fourth-year option. Harden signed that contract in 2017 with Houston, since his All-NBA status and tenure made him eligible for $170-million under the designated player veteran extension. He took that salary to Brooklyn when the Rockets moved him following a tumultuous stretch marked by weight-gain speculation, breaking COVID protocol and frustrating John Wall and Demarcus Cousins.
Anthony Davis, over one year away from free agency in 2019, demanded a trade that January from the Pelicans. New Orleans sat him after and couldn’t find a deal by the February trade deadline. The Pelicans mulled sitting him for the rest of the season before NBA fines loomed. He moved that summer from the Pelicans to the Lakers entering the fourth season of his $127.2-million extension.
The Celtics inquired about both players, meeting resistance from the Davis camp and a steep asking price that likely would’ve included Jayson Tatum. Boston lost Kyrie Irving and Al Horford around the time Davis got traded anyway, as Danny Ainge got left with high-priced stars like Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker alongside rookie contracts like Jaylen Brown and Tatum's. Their quartet of draft selections, like Romeo Langford, provided little more than $2-million in salary matching each.
Ainge filled Boston's roster with young players to retain cap flexibility and retool for the future amid the roster exodus. Then the Celtics squeezed out just enough cap space to facilitate the Walker addition, suddenly becoming contenders again in 2019-20. The two moves instead set up Boston’s recent turbulence and lack of flexibility, more through necessity than how Ainge preferred to build his roster. The Ringer's Ryen Russillo, commenting on the league’s trend toward trades over free agency, remembered Ainge favoring that approach years ago:
“You guys in the media are obsessed with building for cap space,” Russillo recalled Ainge telling him. “I like trades, because I know who I’m getting.”
Ainge, whose biggest additions included the Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Irving trades, ran into a trade flexibility wall during his final seasons. Smart became his only medium-sized salary, while Brown and Tatum soon received maximum extensions. When Harden became available early last year, the only viable value and salary-matching avenue to get in on the sweepstakes would’ve been flipping Brown, who led the NBA in scoring to begin that season.
Brad Stevens pivoted away from some of Ainge’s tendencies when he took over as Celtics president this offseason. He acquired and extended Richardson using the remainder of the Hayward trade exception, adding a longer-term medium salary that Evan Fournier did not materialize into as Ainge’s final trade. Smart signed an extension after Ainge took him to restricted free agency years prior. Williams III inked a rookie scale extension, something Ainge had only agreed to with Rajon Rondo, Brown and Tatum.
Stevens, as Ainge did following Hayward’s departure, paid the Knicks in minor draft capital to open up a significant trade exception. He also took on Kris Dunn and Bruno Fernando instead of Delon Wright in the Tristan Thompson trade to create a TPE slightly larger and longer-lasting than Wright’s expiring $8.5-million contract.
Boston -- between Al Horford's partially-guaranteed contract, various TPEs and medium-sized salaries in Smart and Williams once their extensions kick in -- stands to make nearly any trade in the NBA on paper. Flexibility, as Stevens described it upon becoming Boston’s president, seemed to mean pursuing the long-shot carving out of cap space where the Celtics dumped Smart, Williams and Horford to sign Bradley Beal or others for max money. Stevens, instead, filled any potential of cap space with extensions. The Celtics saw the era of trades coming.
How couldn’t they? The Miami Heat didn’t need max cap space to add Kyle Lowry on a max deal this summer. The Bulls had no path to sign Lonzo Ball for the contract they did via sign-and-trade. The Pelicans had restricted free agent rights, Ball wanted to leave, so New Orleans played ball and accepted Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple to facilitate the deal. Ball and Lowry being a free agent's top names also speaks for itself.
Irving, Harden, Beal and Russell Westbrook may hit free agency next summer, but probably won't leave their teams. After them, Deandre Ayton, Kevin Huerter, Jaren Jackson Jr. and LaVine project to highlight the open market. The 2023 class looks more promising, potentially featuring LeBron James and Nikola Jokic. Don't count on it.
The Celtics weren't alone in forecasting this. The Knicks wiped out their cap space by keeping their own free agents like Nerlens Noel and signing Fournier long-term. The Spurs had Dejounte Murray and Derrick White as medium salary and added Doug McDermott to that picture. Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic doubled as winning additions and salaries that could facilitate future trades, as John Collins or Capela could also do for a capped-out young contending Hawks team.
Teams like the Heat, Raptors and Mavericks, who once dreamed of Giannis Antetokounmpo by keeping the door open to clear cap space, quickly filled it after Antetokounmpo signed a highly-anticipated deal to stay in Milwaukee last year. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder project to have cap space next offseason. The Celtics currently have the third-highest salary commitment entering next summer behind the Nets and Warriors, sitting over $60-million above the cap.
"Eight players have signed a supermax contract and an additional 32 have signed a non-supermax veteran extension over the past four seasons," Marks noted. "In comparison, 15 players signed veteran extensions from 2011 to 2016."
So who will Boston pursue when the time comes? Stevens and company will need to rely on Beal re-signing with the Wizards on a supermax next summer, then eventually asking out and pushing his way to the Celtics. The same could happen with Zach LaVine, who didn’t have incentive to extend with the Bulls early since he was traded from Minnesota and hasn’t made an All-NBA team. He’ll hit free agency next offseason. Damian Lillard, signed through at least 2024, could seemingly ask for a trade immediately in this new era. The looming free agency departure Davis once used as leverage no longer seems necessary.
The league could look to address this trend by alerting the players of an opt-out from the current collective bargaining agreement in December, 2022, setting up a labor dispute during the 2023 offseason. Last CBA's provisions, including shorter contracts and 120% raises in extensions, satisfied team governors then and had unintended consequences that led to expanded player movement and this flurry of re-signings. The 8% annual raises that outpace the salary cap for maximum players, as Zach Lowe pointed out in a recent podcast, also highly incentivize extensions.
Lowe reported he's heard of ownership counters, including mandating that players like Harden need to stay with their teams to make 35% of the salary cap, reverting to 30% if they're traded. He acknowledged the players are likely to balk at retractions from power they've gained.
It’s a double-edged sword for the Celtics. They stand well-positioned to facilitate trades for players who want to come to Boston. Extending quality talent makes it unnecessary to gut the roster in anticipation of players maybe coming in free agency, like the Celtics once did for Horford and Durant in 2016. That means they can try to win with the current roster stabilized while also jumping at later opportunities. Making the Celtics an enviable destination is the next, more difficult step that Brown and Tatum need to lead.
The trend, however, also raises the Brown and Tatum question earlier than imaginable before. They’re signed through 2024 and 2025, respectively, but does that mean they’ll stay that long if Boston doesn’t recapture its winning ways?
“You just try and create different avenues to give yourself options,” Stevens said last month. “That’s the bottom line. This is complicated stuff from a numbers standpoint, but I think that we do have some flexibility and some options, which is good, and we’ve got good players. So we’ve got a good foundation, and that’s exciting as well.”
Early injury updates
Media day begins most training camps around the league Monday, and the Chicago Bulls provided one of the earliest injury updates entering the 2020-21 season. They anticipate Coby White will return from his June left shoulder surgery in November, after the start of the season. He'll participate in the non-contact portions of camp.
Patrick Williams may miss Chicago's opening night too, as the Bulls expect him back in 4-6 weeks following a severe left ankle sprain.
Elsewhere, the Hawks' Bogdanovic (knee) and Hunter (knee) expect to miss some time in training camp, while Onyeka Okongwu won't return from his knee surgery until the calendar flips to 2022. The Celtics' will likely provide a Brown timetable early this week following his May wrist surgery. Brown told The Undefeated he's aiming to return in time for the season:
"My wrist has been healing," he said. "Some days it’s better than others. I got to continue to push and work, but I’m excited to be there for camp. And I’m excited to be there with my teammates, and start to build, and start this journey, man. I missed a lot of time, so I’m looking at the season like I’m ready. I want to play. I’m ready."
Juancho Hernangomez, who the Celtics acquired for Carsen Edwards and Kris Dunn from Memphis earlier this month, could miss time with a shoulder injury he suffered in July preparing for the Olympics with Team Spain.
Klay Thompson (achilles) will begin Warriors camp in controlled drills, and hasn't been cleared for live action. He's aiming to return for the start of the season. The Raptors expect an early-November return for Pascal Siakam (left labrum). Donte DiVicenzo (ankle), TJ Warren (foot) and Mitchell Robinson (foot) aren't cleared for their respective teams. Jonathan Isaac (ACL), Markelle Fultz (ACL) and Victor Oladipo (quad) also expect to miss time time into the beginning of the season.
Joel Embiid (knee), Gordon Hayward (foot), Myles Turner (toe), Chris Paul (wrist) and Irving (ankle) expect to begin training camp unrestricted.
Andrew Wiggins denied religious vaccination exemption
Wiggins will be ineligible to play in Warriors home games unless he gets vaccinated after his request for a religious exemption got denied.
“The NBA has reviewed and denied Andrew Wiggins’ request for a religious exemption from the San Francisco Department of Public Health’s order requiring COVID-19 vaccination for all participants age 12 and older at large indoor events,” the NBA wrote in a statement. “Wiggins will not be able to play in Warriors home games until he fulfills the city’s vaccination requirements.”
The Nets' Irving reportedly could face a similar hurdle in New York City, which like San Fransisco created a vaccine requirement for large indoor athletic participants which impacts Brooklyn and the Knicks. Fox Sports reported Irving is among the players Nets GM Sean Marks indicated did not receive the vaccine ahead of this week's training camp. That would also exclude him from practicing in NYC. The cities excluded visiting players from the mandate. These impending standoffs come as the NBA reportedly saw its vaccination rate increase to roughly 90% before a new season begins.
Celtics round out training camp roster
Garrison Mathews signed in Boston Friday on a non-guaranteed contract that could make him potential competition for Jabari Parker in training camp. Mathews, 25 this season, is a 39% career three-point shooter on 244 attempts. He played his first two NBA seasons with the Wizards, is 6'5", 215-pounds, and ranked in the 96th percentile on spot-up jumpers last season.
He'll join former Bulls guard Ryan Arcidiacono, former Knicks guard Theo Pinson, former Jazz forward Juwan Morgan and Exhibit 10 signee Luke Kornet among training camp competitors. Boston sits over the 20-man training camp limit, which means they'll likely need to time these additions or trim someone from the fold before practice begins Tuesday.
Boston's active roster is filled at 15, though Parker has only been guaranteed $100,000 until opening night, when $1.1-million of his $2.3-million contract becomes guaranteed. That opens a chance for a real competition between Mathews, a ball-handling floor spacer, and Parker, who's essentially a scoring small-ball five who can occasionally play the four without a jump shot at this point in his career. Sam Hauser filled the first of the Celtics' pair of two-way contracts, and Morgan, Mathews and Pinson all qualify for the second.
Stevens said Boston will likely decide on its second two-way player once training camp cuts conclude and the Celtics fully evaluate who's available. Training camp can often become a shuffle at the bottom of the roster, so the contenders to be Boston's 17th man could change further.