It would be a stretch to say that the Red Sox hold a commanding lead in the American League wild-card race. Even "comfortable'' would be a reach.
Nevertheless, with just 11 games to go on their schedule, the Red Sox lead the second-place Toronto Blue Jays by a game and the New York Yankees by two and a half games. Oakland, suddenly relevant again on the strength of a five-game winning streak, trails by two games and the fast-fading Seattle Mariners sit four games back.
How tenuous is the Sox' edge? Consider that with the Red Sox off Monday, it's possible the wild card chase could be bunched tighter still by the time the Sox begin their two-game series with the New York Mets Tuesday night at Fenway. Wins by the Jays (at Tampa Bay) and Yankees (home with Texas) could have the three teams separated by just one game.
So, the Red Sox, having stitched together their longest winning streak (five straight victories) since early July, have clinched nothing. They are, however, well positioned to be one of the two teams thrown into the one-game wild card format on Tuesday, Oct. 5. If the Sox can manage to go 7-4 in their remaining 11 games -- hardly impossible, given the quality of their remaining opponents), the Blue Jays would have to 9-4 to overtake them in the wild card standings. (The Red Sox won the season series 10-9, and as such, have the edge should the teams finish with identical records). The Yankees, meanwhile, would need to go 10-2 to even match the Sox' win total of 93, though who wins next weekend's head-to-head series could go a long way in deciding order of finish. The Sox have already clinched the season series at 10-6 with three games remaining).
Anyway, while the focus for the Red Sox should be in securing their first wild card spot since the current format was introduced in 2012, running a close second is gaining home field advantage.
"That last at-bat at home is very important,'' said Alex Cora recently. "Playing here is different. It's a different ballgame. It would be great to obviously to make it first, right? But at the same time, to play it here (would be great).''
By default, any manager would prefer to play at home and have the final at-bat for his team should it be trailing in the ninth inning (or beyond). There's also a psychological advantage to playing in one's own ballpark -- the familiarity, the comfort, the consistency.
That's all true here, even if, somewhat surprisingly, home teams have a losing record at home in the wild-card round since the format's introduction.
But there's also a very tangible reason to want that Oct. 5 single-elimination playoff to be held at Fenway, and not Yankee Stadium or Rogers Centre: the Red Sox are a better offensive team at home than they are on the road. A lot better.
On Sunday, when the Sox dusted the Baltimore Orioles 8-6, it gave the Red Sox a total of 155 runs over their last 20 home games, for an average of nearly eight (7.8 to be exact) runs per game in that stretch.
In fact, the Sox lead Major League Baseball with an average of 5.9 runs per home game. The Sox also lead all American League teams in home batting average, home on-base percentage, home slugging percentage and home OPS. They're also tied for fourth in homers at home.
But no single statistic better highlights the difference between the Red Sox home and away than this: In 76 home games, the Red Sox have scored 433 runs; in 75 road games, or, one fewer game, they've scored exactly 100 fewer -- 333.
And while the Sox are likely to finish with a winning road record -- they're currently 39-36 with six eminently winnable games remaining at Baltimore (three) and at Washington (three) -- they're, predictably, far more formidable at home. After starting the season just 10-11 at Fenway, the Sox are 37-18 in their last 55, a winning percentage of .673.
Again, the contrast couldn't be more stark: the Red Sox have won one fewer game at home since early May than they've won on the road all season.
In the final days of the season, Cora and the Red Sox may have a decision to make: if they've clinched a wild card spot -- but not home field advantage -- with a few games remaining, which do they prioritize: rest and lining up their pitching as desired, or going all out for wins to ensure the wild card game takes place at Fenway.
The numbers seem to tell the story: even if it hasn't traditionally been much of an advantage at all in one-game playoffs, the Sox would do well to see if they can prove recent history wrong.