Before the ink had even managed to dry on Jaroslav Halak’s new contract with the Bruins back in July 2018, there were a fair share of skeptics.
Granted, the risk back then was much lower for a veteran looking to carve out a backup role with Boston, but a quick glance at Halak’s baseline numbers from his final season with the Islanders did offer some concern in regards to just how much was left in the 33-year-old’s tank.
After all, Halak was largely pedestrian during the 2017-18 campaign — posting a 3.19 GAA and a .908 save percentage over 54 games (49 starts) with the Isles.
But from the Bruins’ perspective, there was room for optimism when it came to Halak’s fit on the roster — especially with a better defensive structure in front of him when compared to the sieve that was the pre-Trotz Isles in 2017-18 (a league-worst 3.57 goals allowed per game).
Add in the fact that some of the underlying numbers in Halak’s 2017-18 stat line painted the picture of an effective goalie saddled with a poor supporting cast around him (his even-strength high-danger save percentage of .836 was just behind Tuukka Rask's .837), and Boston felt more than confident in handing him a two-year, $5.5 million contract at the time.
And much to Don Sweeney and the Bruins’ delight, Halak rewarded the club with a standout year in 2018-19.
Bolstered by a stronger defense that ranked third in the NHL in goals against per game at 2.58, Halak’s own sharp play led to strong numbers across the board — as the veteran went 22-11-4 and posted a .922 save percentage over 40 games (37 starts).
Against high-danger shots at even-strength play, Halak’s save percentage of .892 in 2018-19 ranked first among a pool of 56 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes of ice time — ahead of names like Jordan Binnington (.860) and Pekka Rinne (.866).
Fair to say, the Halak signing was nothing short of a slam dunk for the Bruins — who looked beyond some pedestrian baseline numbers and focused instead on the potential that was there with a talented goalie thrust into a better situation than the one he was mired in with a struggling New York club.
Now, three years later — it sure looks like the Bruins are looking to replicate some of that magic with another promising goalie that’s finally freed from a dreadful team based out of the Empire State.
Only this time, the stakes are much higher.
When news first broke that Rask was going to be sidelined until at least January/February 2022 due to hip surgery, the writing was on the wall that the Bruins were going to have to get creative when it came to reworking their goalie corps.
And while it was to be expected that Boston would target a veteran stopgap to pair with an up-and-coming youngster like Jeremy Swayman, few expected the B’s to go out and hand Linus Ullmark a four-year, $20 million contract.
The B’s might still be keeping the door open for a potential Rask reunion later this season, but you also don’t dole out a contract paying a netminder $5 million a year through 2025 in this flat-cap era unless you’re expecting said goalie to entrench himself as a potential No. 1 option for your club.
And much like Halak, the Bruins seem to hold a similar sentiment with Ullmark in that his solid numbers in Buffalo might give way to some legit production with Boston — making that $5 million payout a bargain in due time.
“He’s big, he stops a lot of pucks way above expected, especially in five-on-five situations. … Overall, he’s in the prime of his career, he’s had a lot of experience,” Don Sweeney said of Ullmark back in July. “He’s had some injuries we’re going to help him to be in the best shape going forward and play in a real structured environment which I think he was excited about. He knows what our team is like, playing against it, and he’s excited to be on the inside of it all, playing for us, and we’re fortunate.”
Unlike Halak’s less-than-stellar totals with the Isles the year before he joined Boston, Ullmark already more or less passes the basic eye test in that his numbers this past year as the last line of defense for a truly heinous Buffalo team were already pretty encouraging.
He only appeared in 20 games, but Ullmark posted a 9-6-3 record with the Sabres and held a .917 save percentage. In case you’re keeping count, the other five goalies that Buffalo rolled out in 2021 went 6-28-4 with an .896 save percentage.
But an even deeper dive into Ullmark’s already solid numbers with the worst team in the NHL last year offers even more room for optimism if you’re the Bruins.
Buffalo’s leaky defensive structure often meant that Ullmark kept busy during his 20 games of action in 2021, but the 28-year-old netminder regularly stood tall — posting a .937 save percentage during 5v5 play. Among the 65 NHL goalies that logged at least 500 minutes of 5v5 ice time in 2021, Ullmark’s .937 SV% ranked fifth overall, ahead of franchise netminders such as Andrei Vasilevskiy (.933), Marc-Andre Fleury (.929) and Carey Price (.925).
We don't do much around goalies because they are voodoo, but Ullmark to Boston seems like quite the splash. He's coming off of a strong shortened season worth 3.4 standings points in just 20 games. pic.twitter.com/p10C9RGabl
— Evolving-Hockey (@EvolvingHockey) July 29, 2021
And, much like Halak in 2017-18, Ullmark follows a similar profile in that he was routinely a rock against the multitude of high-danger scoring chances that the Sabres coughed up in front of him — ranking eighth among 65 goalies in high-danger save percentage at 5v5 play (.861).
If Ullmark can keep that same level of production in Boston, one has to think that his baseline numbers will also soar. After all, for as much as the B’s D corps might be on the smaller side — having a slew of adept puck-movers and transition aces like Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk and Mike Reilly in tow plays a part in why Boston routinely makes life easier for their netminders.
Sure, you can make the argument that Boston needs a bit more heft come the postseason when matched up against a physical forecheck, but one of the reasons why the B’s ranked fourth in the NHL last year in goals allowed per game (2.39) and fifth in 5v5 high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes (8.68) is that the B’s routinely push the puck out of Grade-A ice, into the neutral zone and out of danger thanks to the blue-line personnel they roll out.
You mesh Ullmark’s strong individual numbers with the stout zone defense that Bruce Cassidy deploys — coupled with the contributions from transition cheat codes like McAvoy and Grzelcyk — and you can certainly see why Boston felt that $20 million was a gamble worth taking in regards to Ullmark and his standing as a potential No. 1 option on this roster.
Of course, there are still plenty of risks when it comes to projecting something as fickle as goaltending. Even though Ullmark has seemingly improved with each new campaign in the NHL, injuries have been a concern — with the veteran yet to surpass 37 games played in one year during his tenure in Buffalo.
And even though his 5v5 stats are impressive, Ullmark’s performance during PK situations is a bit more concerning — as he ranked 38th among 63 netminders last year (min. 50 minutes of PK TOI) in save percentage during shorthanded situations (.860).
Linus Ullmark, signed 4x$5M by BOS, has improved in each of the past three seasons and doesn't often cost his team a game. #NHLBruins pic.twitter.com/fcrElKuWA0
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 28, 2021
Still, you weigh the encouraging stats that Ullmark generated in Buffalo, the benefits from playing in front of a better surrounding cast — and the added potential that comes with a full season of NHL experience for Jeremy Swayman (who posted a casual high-danger save percentage of .891 at 5v5 play last year) — and Boston has to be feeling good about how they’ve hedged their bets on an overhauled goalie corps.
It’s often a perilous (and fruitless) venture when it comes mapping out the ceilings of athletes in such a capricious profession such a goaltending, but Boston sure has to like the odds working in its favor when it comes to the type of netminder they have in Ullmark — along with the personnel already in place to elevate the free-agent pickup to a tier where that $5 million annual payout falls well in line (if not undersells) his on-ice return.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.