Let's get a few statements out of the way, even though no one outside of BSJ will read them because zero people read past the headline:
- I have no reason to believe Bill Belichick is retiring anytime soon.
- I still think he doesn't consider leaving until he passes Don Shula on the all-time wins list.
- Because of that, Belichick will coach the Patriots at least through the 2023 season.
And let me save you some Tweets (but it still won't):
- "Of course this is true, he's going to be 70 next yeeah, he's not coaching forevah, you moron. You're a regulah genius, Bedahd."
- "You're just making this up. Wah."
Do we have all that out of the way? Yes? Ok, good.
Moving on...
Besides my feeling from the first training camp practice that Mac Jones was going to be the Patriots' opening-game starting quarterback, the other thought I couldn't shake throughout the summer was this:
Bill Belichick has started to enact his exit plan from the Patriots and NFL.
Again, not exactly breaking news considering his age, but, to be honest, I never even came close to feeling this way over the years — despite nearly annual and countless rumors that Belichick was going to retire or leave the Patriots (a definite possibility around 2018-2020 as the battle between Tom Brady and Belichick raged behind the scenes). I never entertained the end, really, for Belichick. Like Brady, I thought Belichick might coach until his mid-70s and perhaps beyond. What the hell else is he going to do, play golf? Do TV? Be Nike's full-time walker? Football's been his entire life. Is Belichick really just going to walk away at some point?
That's the way I felt, until this summer. There was a definite shift in Belichick's engagement on the field. And, now in hindsight, it's been going on in all facets of Belichick's football operations that he used to rule with total authority, and an iron fist.
Let's not get it twisted: this is still Belichick's show and he still makes all the decisions (despite sports talk radio's insistence this is not true). I'm sure we'll even get some quotes soon where people wax poetic about how he's "Still the same Bill."
But if you started to see the finish line, and were dead-set on leaving a full cupboard that could perpetuate your legacy, you'd start doing some of the things Belichick has done over the last year:
• Kept Dave Ziegler away from the Broncos and made him director of player personnel after Nick Caserio's exit. This was crucial, since there really wasn't another in-house candidate to be Belichick's personnel czar. Quite frankly, it would have been a disaster — similar to Josh McDaniels going to Indianapolis — for the front office if the Broncos hired Ziegler, who had previously worked in Denver. Not only did Belichick retain Ziegler, he gave him more input than Caserio.
• Empowered a quartet in the personnel department, among Ziegler, personnel coordinator Brian Smith, college scouting director Matt Groh, and scouting assistant Eliot Wolf. These are the guys you saw Belichick interacting with in the latest draft (Steve Cargile was also promoted), which has already produced a new starting quarterback (Mac Jones), a top interior rusher pushing to get base defensive snaps (Christian Barmore), and a running back who made former first-round pick Sony Michel expendable (Rhamondre Stevenson). (Also: Ronnie Perkins may yet send Chase Winovich packing.)
• Tried to hire Packers exec Chad Brinker, as reported by Albert Breer, to run the team's salary cap, as Ziegler continued to get his hands in reworking Patriots' personnel. Director of research Richard Miller has handled the cap, among many duties, for the Patriots and is in his 26th year with the team. Not sure if he's eyeing retirement, but getting someone to align more with a younger personnel department would be a smart option.
• Brought back Matt Patricia, empowered him on the practice field, and allowed Patricia to bring his personal researcher (Evan Rothstein) with him.
You could certainly make the argument that this is the way things have always been done around here, and that the personnel shuffling was done simply because of the mass exodus of people in recent years.
You might be right, although what Ziegler is doing and how he's been given more autonomy seems like a seismic shift in how this have been done, especially in recent years when it was Belichick's personnel show and people were left jilted.
But it's that final point, about Patricia, which was a big departure for these eyes this summer.
For years, Belichick has been the coach on the field — especially in joint practices where usually each head coach takes one field to supervise — that is reading off the practice script and barking out the down, distance and situations. This camp, especially after the first week, that was almost exclusively Patricia's duty. It was so pronounced that during the second Eagles practice, Belichick spent the entire session talking on the sideline, barely paying attention to the action, to Mike Lombardi while Patricia ran what would normally be Belichick's field to supervise. It was a little better against the Giants, but Patricia still had a visible role.
This basically allowed Belichick to be a CEO for much of the summer. I'm not saying Belichick wasn't involved — he definitely was and was an active coach — but this felt like a stepback. And we didn't even mention how Josh McDaniels has run the offense for years, and this summer Steve Belichick/Jerod Mayo seemed to have more autonomy on defense.
Oh, yeah, and Mac Jones being the Week 1 starter as a rookie to give him all the on-the-job training he can handle to improve quickly.
We're not saying Belichick can walk away at any time, but if you were eyeing possibly coaching this season and two more if you're Belichick, then all that has been mentioned above would be part of the transition, which has to start now so that you know you've left the franchise in great shape to start a 20-year run after your seventh Super Bowl title as head coach. What's better than a legacy of greatness that you set up and outlasts you?
Not for nothing, if the Patriots average 12 regular and postseason wins the next three years, Belichick ties Shula at the end of the 2023 season. A Super Bowl run in the next three years would mean Belichick would break Shula's mark of 347 total wins, tie Brady with his seventh title, the first without his quarterback, and shut up any remaining critics.
Seems like a plan to us.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. This naturally leads into who the next coach would be. First of all, the Patriots would be completely foolish to let Josh McDaniels leave in the next three years, especially now that he's going to be nursing Mac Jones. McDaniels is more than ready to be a head coach again and should be — Belichick is telling a lot of people that around the league. You can read something into the perceived lack of interest around the league after the Colts debacle if you want, but the Eagles and Browns were not hiring a coach unless they agreed to be a puppet for the front office (McDaniels would not do that). And McDaniels could very well be the Panthers coach if Matt Rhule wasn't the hot name and had the leverage to force Dave Tepper to make Rhule an immediate offer.
2. If it's not McDaniels, Bill O'Brien would seem to be next logical choice. Can't see Patricia getting the job, and you're really letting Jerod Mayo be a first-time head coach here with this roster and setup? Patriots struck gold with one second-chancer, why wouldn't they just go that route again?
3. Tom Brady told Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times that he had the coronavirus after the Bucs' boat parade.
"I actually think it's going to play more of a factor this year than last year, just because of the way what we're doing now and what the stadium is going to look like and what the travel is going to look like and the people in the building and the fans," Brady said.
"It's not like last year, although we're getting tested like last year. It's going to be - I definitely think guys are going to be out at different points and we've just got to deal with it."
4. Belichick is not high on Joe Montana, according to Peyton Manning on the Bill Simmons Podcast: "When you get a compliment from Bill Belichick, it means something. He's not really impressed by a lot of things," Manning said. "I remember sitting on a bus with him at a Pro Bowl and I love hearing about the old days when he's a d-coordinator. What was it like (facing) Joe Montana. He's like, 'You've got Jerry Rice on these short drag routes, how hard is it to complete it to him?' How about Jim Kelly in the K Gun? 'You've got Thurman (Thomas).'
"Don't ever ask Belichick what he thinks of me because I don't want to hear it. It's not that hard when you've got Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison...."
5. Happy trails into retirement to Malcolm Butler, if he indeed follows through on retiring as he works through a personal situation, as reported by NFL Network.
"I would say it was a surprise," Kliff Kingsbury said to reporters Wednesday. "We all like Malcolm, like what he's about and know he's a really good player in this league, like I said, it was a personal decision of his."