The Boston Celtics, perhaps a little surprisingly to some, have handed out a couple of long-term extensions to players with some question marks on their resume.
Marcus Smart’s four-year, $77 million extension seems widely accepted by the NBA pundit-sphere, but a little less so by some of the local jabber jaws and their disciples. There’s some of that going around for Robert Williams’ four-year, $54 million deal.
And while I, personally, find those deals to fall in the acceptable range, not everyone agrees. There is plenty of angst, especially from some of our own subscribers, that needs to be assuaged.
So here’s a little more context for these deals in the grander scheme of NBA business. The fact is that speaking about these deals in overall terms like $54 and $77 million does the players a bit of disservice. For who they are and what their roles will be, and in the full context of NBA salaries, it’s pretty much in line with expectations.
The trepidation surrounding Williams’ deal mostly comes from his injury history. There’s a fear that he could never live up to the price tag because he’ll miss too many games.
Okay, sure, that’s possible. That's why Brad Stevens reportedly included performance-based clauses to protect against that. Of the $54 million, $48 is reportedly guaranteed, starting with $10.7 million in the 2022-23 season.
The non-taxpayer mid-level exception for ‘22-’23 is expected to be about $10.1 million, so Stevens basically signed Williams to a mid-level deal with added incentives if he plays 69 games or more and makes all-defensive teams.
Play more and play better, get more money.
As we saw with Tristan Thompson, generally subpar performance and impact on a team when making mid-level money is not a deterrent when it comes to a trade. Mid-level bust deals get traded all the time, so in a worst-case scenario, there will generally be options even if Williams remains exactly who he is.
The optimist can easily point to the 52 games played this past season and the growing impact he’s had on the team as reasons to feel good about the deal. However, the pessimist can feel better not only about its movability, but also where Williams lands production-wise against similarly paid players.
In his two best months last season in March and April when his true value to the team really stood out, Williams averaged about 10 points, 8.6 rebound, 2.8 assists, and just under 2 blocks in 23 minutes per game.
If we look at the per-36 numbers (a metric that measures what a player’s averages would look like over 36 minutes of play) over that stretch, Williams averaged 15.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 3.6 blocks.
Will Williams get to 36 minutes per game as the starter? Not likely, but extrapolating his best self over that timeframe gives you at least a glimpse into what a best-case scenario might be for Boston. The closer Williams gets to averaging a meaty double-double, while adding four assists and three blocks, the closer he can get to exceeding the value of his contract.
In evaluating the pitfalls of handing out the contract, there are best and worst-case extremes to consider, with the truth of the deal’s value falling somewhere in between there. If Williams never improves, the deal ends up being a negative value, but still able to be traded. If he does and gives Boston the same level of play they saw in that 22-game stretch where he was at his best, then this contract will look like a bargain.
There is another mitigating factor at play here, and it involves Smart’s contract as well.
Smart’s deal certainly drew more ire than Williams’ considering we have a longer track record for Smart. We know, basically, who he is as an NBA player at this point. While I personally believe a more steady role as the starting point guard will help alleviate some of the criticisms of Smart, it’s still a largely theoretical belief.
So how can the Smart critics feel better about his extension? Part one is that his new deal still puts him in the bottom third of NBA point guards in terms of average annual value. Starting point guards are paid a lot, and Smart’s deal puts him in the Derrick White, Spencer Dinwiddie world of salaries.
In a world where Terry Rozier’s extension is worth an average of $24 million a year, Smart’s $18.5 million seems a little more palatable.
It’s not about the number, it’s about what the market is paying players in his position. You can argue that Smart is overpaid, but there aren't many replacements that will be significantly better at that number, and Boston doesn’t have the means to get many of them.
White fits the Evan Fournier TPE, but go look at their stats side-by-side and you’ll find basically the same guy.
So by comparison, Smart’s deal is right in line with the rest of the market. But looking even further out, both the Smart and Williams extensions could be further mitigated by the end of the current collective bargaining agreement and the beginning of the new TV deal.
The CBA expires after the second year of these deals. The current television deal expires after the third year.
The new television deal could double or even triple the last deal, meaning team salary caps are about to explode again. So at the very least, Smart’s $21.3 million in year four will look a lot more like Robert Williams’ deal than Harrison Barnes’. Considering the massive influx of money, there may be impetus on both sides to agree to some sort of cap-smoothing that begins in the first year of the new CBA.
If the league allows for a more gradual implementation of the new, significantly higher contract structure, the cap-impact of the final two years of both the Williams and Smart deals could be significantly lowered. Smart and Williams could occupy a lower percentage of the salary cap in their two highest-paid seasons than they will in year one.
So while there may be questions associated with each new contract (aren’t there always?), when you factor in the bigger picture, the deals don’t look nearly as big or, if you’re one to believe so, problematic.
Williams is being paid like a mid-level guy and has a ceiling that could blow past that in terms of production. Smart is being paid like a decent starting point guard and, in a couple of years, could be making a fraction of what someone in his ability range will get.
In full context, it’s hard to argue against these extensions.