The Celtics looked to be going in a certain direction with their offseason, but the signing of Marcus Smart and the now sign-and-trade of Evan Fournier to the New York Knicks have shown that Brad Stevens is not, in fact, going in the max cap space direction.
The team announced today that Fournier was going to New York along with two second round picks for cash considerations.
Per source, the Celtics sent the Knicks the top-55 protected 2023 Hornets second-round pick, and *deep breath* the worst of: the worst of OKC/Was or the better of Miami/Dallas
— Adam Himmelsbach (@AdamHimmelsbach) August 17, 2021
The deal creates a $17.1 million traded player exception for the Celtics to use. Considering the Smart extension starts at about $17.2 million next season, and that Boston has other traded player exceptions and player options to consider and suddenly the whole idea of cap space next season is out the window.
So where does Boston sit now? Let’s reset things.
Guaranteed contracts for 2022-23:
- Jayson Tatum $30,351,780
- Jaylen Brown $28,741,071
- Marcus Smart $17,200,000 (projected)
Total: $76,292,852
Team options:
- Romeo Langford: $5,634,257
- Grant Williams: $4,306,281
- Aaron Nesmith: $3,804,360
- Payton Pritchard: $2,239,200
- Carsen Edwards: $1,930,681
Total: $17,914,779
Non Guaranteed contracts:
- Al Horford: $12,500,000 ($14 million is guaranteed)
- Jabari Parker $2,183,034 ($100,000 guaranteed. $1,14 million guarantees when season begins)
Restricted free agents (qualifying offer):
- Robert Williams ($5,430,710)
- Bruno Fernando ($2,228,276)
Traded Player Exceptions:
- Evan Fournier: $17,100,000 (projected)
- Tristan Thompson: $9,700,000
- Daniel Theis: $5,000,000
Total: $31,8000,000
Projected 2022-23 salary cap: $119 million
Projected luxury tax: $145 million
Projected apron (hard cap line): $151 million.
REMINDERS: TPE’s can’t be combined with other TPE’s or with other players. Bradey Beal does not fit into a combination of the three TPE’s. These are three separate things. They can be split (A $9 million and $8 million player can fit into the Fournier TPE) but not combined (A $14.7 million player does NOT fit into a combination of the Thompson and Theis TPE’s).
So Boston has $76.3 million in guaranteed contracts and $18 million in options, so next season starts with $94.3 in committed salary before the Celtics make any decisions on players. Horford is due $26.5, and I doubt they’re going to cut him for the sake of saving $12.5 million. So add that to the mix and Boston is at $120.8 million, which is already over the cap.
Let’s say they trade Horford away into cap space, to save money. The TPE’s still count against the cap, so $31.8 million of those puts Boston over anyway. The Celtics specifically created the $17.1 million Fournier exception. They could have let him walk for nothing, but instead they chose this route, which is the tell that they’re not worried about cap space.
Now Boston can head into talks with Robert Williams and not worry about the financial ramifications in regards to eating up cap space. If both sides agree, they can just go ahead and make the deal.
(Warning: complicated cap nerd paragraphs ahead)
One reason not to extend Williams would be to avoid creating a “poison pill” contract. When a player gets an extension but then is traded, the receiving team has to count his contract as the average annual value, including this season’s figure, for salary matching purposes. However, the trading team only counts this year’s contract value.
So let’s pretend they sign Williams to a three-year, $40 million extension (I’m using round numbers, not projecting what his value actually is). The receiving team would count his salary as $10,915,484, the average of those three years plus this year’s $3,661,976. Boston would only count it as the $3.66 million, making it very difficult to trade him. If the Celtics are considering using Williams as trade bait, they’re probably better off pushing the negotiations to next season. However, if they do extend him, it’s probably a sign that they intend to keep him.
So with the better picture of Boston’s finances, a couple of things seem clear. First, there are more moves coming this season. Boston is over the luxury tax at the moment, but has all season to get under that line. Boston is at 16 players right now, so one will have to go before the season starts. They can simply cut Jabari Parker or move some other contracts to get closer to that goal if it remains a priority.
Also, they’re going to operate as an over the cap team next season, even with expiring contracts. This makes a trade this season, or sign-and-trade next summer, the most likely scenario for acquiring a third star.
If they can swing a trade this season for their third star, they’ll have three TPE’s to potentially improve their roster next season. If they pull a sign-and-trade in the summer, they’ll be hard capped, but they’ll have enough expiring deals to make that somewhat palatable and the TPE’s can help fill the voids around the three stars even though Stevens would have to tread carefully.
The good news here is that Boston continues to have options to fix the roster. It’s probably a better path than trying to sign Bradley Beal outright considering it leaves Boston with better options for complementary players.
All in all, this continues to be a solid offseason for first-year executive Brad Stevens.