I want to say this as clearly as I possibly can.
The Boston Celtics should not, for any reason, trade Jaylen Brown for Bradley Beal. Not to appease Jayson Tatum. Not to make a splashy move. Not for any reason short of Brown himself saying he wants out of town, and even then I’d still say Boston should try to make it work.
It’s not that I don’t want Beal. I’ve been talking about how a Beal/Tatum/Brown trio could be the antidote to Brooklyn Nets fever. I think finding a way, however improbable, to get Beal onto Boston to form this generation’s Big 3 would be the launching pad to championship contender.
But it’s not going to happen without Brown.
Beal is one of the league’s best scorers, and he’s been quite loyal to the Washington Wizards, but even that level of loyalty has an expiration date in the NBA. Should this week be it, Boston finds itself in a badly-timed fight for Beal’s services.
Their best bet would be for Beal to say he wants to give his new coach, Wes Unseld, Jr., a fair shot and for that shot to fail. Boston’s competitors for Beal are formidable because of their 2021 NBA draft capital, and any process that extends past Thursday suddenly weakens their hand.
Think of it as a pre-flop hand of Texas Hold ‘em. Boston has a nine/jack off suit while the Warriors and Raptors have pocket Kings and Queens. They are in control here. If the bidding starts now, Brad Stevens would have to fold.
But if the competition is forced to check, the Celtics could pull a post-draft straight draw on the flop. If Golden State or Toronto are forced to make picks and those picks struggle, and if Boston’s young players start to realize some of their potential, the power shifts a little.
The Celtics do have an ace up their sleeve in Brown if they choose to use it. If they want to win this hand, they could go all-in with Brown and take it, but that doesn’t mean they can win the whole tournament.
Right now, at this moment, Beal is a better basketball player than Brown. No one will really deny that, but the question is how much better Beal is than Brown, and for how much longer will that be true?
Brown turns 25 in October, and is under contract for $25.3, $27.2, and $29 million over the next three seasons.
Beal turns 29 at the end of the season and is under contract for $33.7 million next season before he can opt out of the final year of his contract and sign a max deal. The first year of that deal, assuming he gets the max, will pay him $40.5 million to start.
Yes, Beal is better, but when you factor in the level of defense each can play, is Beal nearly $21.5 million better than Brown over those first two years? When you factor in that Brown turns 27 after those years, smack in the middle of his prime, and Beal will be 30, how much longer will Beal be better than Brown?
And even if we skew the meters towards Beal, is he so much better than Brown that adding him and removing Brown suddenly has Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving quaking in their boots? Are the defending champions really worried that Jayson Tatum and Bradley Beal are going to outdo Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton when one of those guys will have to deal with Jrue Holiday living in his shorts for a whole series?
No. It won’t.
Boston has its two stars right now, and should be either angling for a third, or to find the Holiday of their own to add a level of depth that will be hard for top-heavy trios to deal with. They absolutely should not be switching one star out for another one who is better right now, but who might not be for much longer.
This isn’t a matter of appeasing Tatum by bringing in one of his best friends. If they want to do that, just re-sign Javonte Green. Tatum is just starting the first year of his extension this upcoming season, and the best way to cater to a star that young is to make him the center of a champion, not surround him with his buddies and hope that’s enough.
That’s not team building. That’s coddling. And while I understand that the business of the NBA makes some of that coddling necessary, it’s not where Boston is right now with Tatum. They don’t need to spend the next five years washing his feet, they need to make him want to stay in Boston because they’ve built a legitimate championship contender.
Because more than buddying up, NBA players want to cement their legacies. I can’t speak for Tatum, but if I had to guess, the chance at winning a championship or two without Beal is a lot more appealing than middling along with him. The banners add to a Hall of Fame case. The banners lead to a lifetime legacy, especially in Boston.
He can get drinks with Beal on vacation together in July.
The Celtics need to make championship moves to keep Tatum in Green. Adding Beal to the already established core with Brown will do that. Giving up Brown won’t, and will only start Boston down an expensive folly that is more likely to push both guys out of town than have them become legends in it.