By Evan Lazar
The first order of business for the Patriots offense in training camp is establishing their identity.
New England finds itself at a crossroads between two different styles at quarterback after an offseason overhaul at wide receiver and tight end, an elite runner in Cam Newton, who has his limitations as a passer, or an inspiring rookie passer in Mac Jones who lacks mobility.
Do the Patriots want to revert to Tom Brady’s offense that led them to six Super Bowls, or morph entirely into a Newton-led operation that dives deeper into the world of mobile QBs?
Looking at recent examples, Lamar Jackson’s Ravens serve as a case study regarding how a full offseason of tinkering the playbook can open up the Newton run game package.
Jackson took over as Baltimore’s starter in Week 11 of his rookie season. At that time, offensive coordinator Greg Roman installed some of the plays designed to highlight the former Heisman Trophy winner's elite skills as a runner. It wasn’t until Jackson's second season, when Roman had more time to design and drill a Jackson-centric playbook, that the team's offense took off.
The Ravens averaged 24.1 points and 366.1 yards per game in Jackson’s eight starts as a rookie. Those stats skyrocketed to a league-best 31.9 PPG and 414.8 YPG, with Jackson winning league MVP by leading Baltimore to a 14-2 record in his second season.
Newton won’t produce at Jackson's level in year two with the Patriots. Still, after so many years with a non-mobile QB in Brady, it takes time to shift the offense to cater Newton's skillset.
There are arguments fo Mac Jones. He began showing in minicamp last month he can be a decisive quarterback and accurate thrower. Newton could lead the more potent running game and play-action attack for the Pats, based out of two-tight end sets.
As we head into camp, the onus is on offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to figure out which offense and quarterback will yield the team's best results moving forward.
McDaniels made it clear in the past that he doesn’t believe in fundamentally changing the roots of his system, but that may be necessary to give Newton a chance to flourish. The Pats can’t run two different offenses depending on who is under center for long, with only six weeks and three preseason games remaining to prepare for the regular season. New England must choose a path for their offense quickly and go all the way in that direction.
Below is a position-by-position breakdown of the key figures on the offensive side of the ball for the Patriots this upcoming season:
QUARTERBACKS
- Cam Newton spent extra time this offseason working with longtime quarterbacks coach George Whitfield Jr. The focus revolved around keeping his front shoulder closed through the start of his throwing motion and continuing to drill sound footwork. Newton’s biggest issue mechanically last season involved breaking the mechanical chain where his feet, hips, and shoulders weren’t in sync. As a result, he lost both velocity and accuracy. The results proved mixed in minicamp and he hopes the work pays off better later this month.
- Mac Jones did everything he could to make this a real competition in the spring, even out-repping Newton in some of the practices that were open to the media. Jones’s grasp of the offense and ability to see the entire picture is winning over his coaches, and at the very least, the rookie is proving worthy of that first-round selection to date. Speaking to a few of his teammates on the offensive side of the ball, Jones’s accuracy and catchable ball stand out. His mental acumen and consistent ball placement are as advertised, but Jones will need to break down the door to pry the starting job from Newton.
- Jarrett Stidham earned some brownie points for organizing “Pats West” earlier this offseason, where a group of players got together for throwing sessions. Stidham’s competitive side is coming out, which was a concern last season and a reason why he didn’t earn more playing time, but the Patriots’ intention is clear at quarterback with the selection of Jones. It’s doubtful Jarrett Stidham will ever be truly tabbed the starter. The question behind Newton is whether Jones earn enough trust to make Stidham expendable in a trade? In 2014, the Pats traded backup Ryan Mallett for a draft pick after a rookie Jimmy Garoppolo beat him out for the backup job. We could see something similar go down with Stidham and Jones, respectively.
- Brian Hoyer’s role with the team is clear: he’s here as a training camp arm to help mentor Jones. How does that role look once the roster is whittled down to 53 players? Hoyer could stick around as the third quarterback if the Pats find a trade for Stidham, continuing to help Jones and Newton in the QB room while also running the scout team.
RUNNING BACKS
- Damian Harris is the best ball carrier on New England’s roster at running back. When Belichick has multiple capable backs, he usually spreads the wealth. Harris possesses another gear when accelerating into the secondary compared to Sony Michel, and proved he can make the necessary reads in the Pats’ schemes. He should be the featured back, with Michel sprinkling in to keep Harris fresh.
- Sony Michel’s days with the Pats are numbered after the team didn’t pick up his fifth-year option. However, my sense is that he’s very much in New England’s plans for this season. That can change if rookie Rhamondre Stevenson starts to produce quickly, but Michel had his most efficient season yet one year ago, with Harris’s emergence providing motivation. Despite what the eye test might tell us, Michel’s yards per rush and yards after contact averages both ranked higher than Harris' in 2020, albeit in a smaller sample size. Expect both Harris and Michel to get carries in the Pats’ backfield, with Stevenson as the wild card.
- Speaking of fourth-round pick Rhamondre Stevenson, the rookie was placed on the active/non-football injury list on Wednesday after running backs coach Ivan Fears mentioned he was dealing with a few lingering injuries from college. Fears called the rookie a smaller LeGarrette Blount earlier this offseason. Stevenson runs with great power, smooth footwork for a man of his stature, and also flashed decent hands as a receiver. As we know, it’s difficult for rookie running backs to carve out playing time in year one. Recently, Harris and J.J. Taylor were both “redshirted” by the team. Stevenson missing training camp practices due to injury won't help him get on the field as a rookie, but he can come off NFI at any time. Let's not overreact until he starts missing practices.
- Taylor, the Patriots' second-year back, is a player that stands out whenever he has a chance to play. In spring practices, Taylor threatened the defense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and got targeted with deep passes. He has wiggle, burst, and an explosive element that the team's bigger backs don’t possess. Plus, he could factor in on kick returns a la Dion Lewis, who is the back that Fears compares Taylor to regularly. It’s a crowded backfield, and if Taylor is going to play mainly as a sub-back in passing situations, he needs to hold up in pass protection too.The 2020 UDFA nonetheless provides a spark every time he’s on the field.
- James White had a tragic and challenging year off the field last season, which seemed to affect him on the field, as it would anyone. The veteran earned a long leash to get back to form, but there’s no denying that he had a down year in 2020. Some of that fell on Newton, who wasn’t as efficient working to his check-down options as Brady. Taylor could dip into some of White’s playing time, but you have to think White will be out there when the game is on the line.
- Brandon Bolden also had a sneaky-good spring where he looked very spry coming out of the backfield catching passes. His role as a reserve running back and core special teamer is likely safe after taking a year off due to the pandemic. Bolden isn’t flashy. He is reliable.
TIGHT ENDS/FULLBACKS
- Hunter Henry is a technically savvy route runner who won’t wow you with vertical speed. He is quick out of his breaks and understands how to get open, and should blossom into the Pats’ go-to possession receiver as someone who will move the chains in high-leverage situations. When it’s third-and-8, Henry will most likely be the team's top target.
- Jonnu Smith’s versatility and ability as a ball carrier make him a unique weapon for McDaniels. Smith is an effective blocker from multiple alignments who is also impactful with the ball in his hands. He isn’t on Henry’s level as a route runner, but Smith has more vertical speed, contested catch ability, and creates in the open field. When it comes to blurring the lines between personnel groupings and scheming up offense, Smith will have a huge role.
- Devin Asiasi is another Pats pass-catcher who had a good spring. The second-year tight end was an effective seam runner and red zone threat during minicamp practices. He also started to come on at the end of last season both as a receiver and blocker. The issue for Asiasi is playing time, as the Pats are going to feature Henry and Smith heavily. He projects as the clear-cut number three on the depth chart, and if Asiasi continues to progress he will be a useful fill-in if there’s an injury. Asiasi is in a difficult situation. It looks like he can play.
- Dalton Keene remains a mystery of a draft pick. He has an unconventional skillset for a traditional Pats tight end, and as a result Keene doesn’t have a defined role. My theory was that he might transition into more of a fullback or H-Back, which might have some carryover with Smith’s projected role. Keene didn’t work at fullback at all in the spring. With three tight ends ahead of him on the depth chart, he will have a battle on his hands to make the roster. The only thing holding the Pats back could be sunk cost after they traded a decent haul to move back into the third round to select the Virginia Tech tight end in the 2020 draft.
- Matt LaCosse is another Pats tight end feeling the effects of the two free-agent additions at the position. I’m not sure how he makes this team unless there’s an injury in camp, and although he has practice squad eligibility, he’d probably make a 53-man roster elsewhere.
- Will the Patriots use a traditional fullback enough to warrant keeping Jakob Johnson on the roster? Johnson is a good lead blocker that takes another step forward with every rep. Unless the Patriots plan on taking either Henry or Smith off the field, or want to unveil a jumbo 22-package, the snaps might not be there. Johnson will need to carve out a prominent role in the kicking game and be ready to contribute in short-yardage situations.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- N’Keal Harry’s trade market is what you’d expect, which is to say it is not robust. The Patriots are probably looking at a fifth-round pick in return, at best, right now. The team may be better off making Harry showcase himself in preseason games rather than trade him now. He could enter camp disgruntled, and that wouldn’t be great for team morale. The only way New England will get anything of value for the former first-round pick is if he increases his trade value. Showcasing him in preseason games where he can body backup cornerbacks might do the trick.
- Don’t get too caught up in Nelson Agholor’s stats this season. He is here to stretch the field, preventing safeties from crowding the middle and coming down on the two tight ends. If he can effectively take coverage with him and make teams pay when he’s in one-on-one coverage, he’s doing his job. Agholor ranked among the league’s best deep threats a year ago. Even if he doesn’t have a huge number of catches, his presence will be vital in making this offense work.
- Don’t sleep on Jakobi Meyers. He’s still arguably the best route runner on the team and proved he can put up numbers last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s vying for the team lead in receptions and targets by season's ends. Meyers isn’t the fastest or most dynamic pass-catcher, but he’s a technician who knows how to operate in this offense.
- Kendrick Bourne brings a ton of energy and strong hands to the table. He was snatching passes outside of his frame in impressive fashion during spring practices. Bourne doesn’t run particularly well. He’s got enough juice with his body control and hands to make it work, so it’ll be interesting to see how they use him and if the playing time is available. Where are Bourne’s targets with two tight ends, Agholor and Meyers heavily involved?
- Gunner Olszewski is going to make the team as an All-Pro punt returner. Though his spot is safe, can he take that next step as a receiver? In minicamp, Olszewski got open and caught the ball more effectively. We know he has the athleticism to hang on an NFL field. Technique and hands are still question marks for him. If Gunner follows the Julian Edelman and Wes Welker path, now is the time for him to start flashing as a receiver.
- Isaiah Zuber is an intriguing depth player who can absolutely burn as he enters his second season, with a role as the primary kick returner and gadget player able to earn him a roster spot as the fifth Patriots wide receiver. The Pats could use a ball carrier for end arounds, jet sweeps, and other motions. Even if Zuber doesn’t get the ball, the threat of him coming in motion will alter opposing defenses. Pre-snap motion is always a good thing when paired with a potent rushing attack and play-action motions. I’d like to see them use Zuber in a Cordarrelle Patterson-like role.
- Tre Nixon, Ernie Adams’s guy, didn’t make noise in spring practices. One wouldn’t expect a rookie receiver in New England’s system to immediately make plays. Nixon is a hard worker, an effective route runner, and has good speed. He could flash this summer and will hopefully stick around as a developmental receiver.
OFFENSIVE LINE
- How high is Michael Onwenu’s ceiling? A move inside to his natural position at left guard should allow Onwenu to consistently unlock all of his raw power while asking him to block in space less, which is a win. Onwenu’s rookie season was impressive. Continuing to stack high-level play year-in and year-out is a different story. Let’s see if he can keep the arrow pointing upward.
- Isaiah Wynn’s story hasn’t changed. When he’s healthy, he is a good starting left tackle. Staying healthy is constantly an unknown. Wynn boasts heavy hands, a strong upper body and smooth feet to mirror pass rushers. As a run blocker, he led all NFL offensive linemen in run-blocking grade on gap runs where he was often tasked with combination blocks, where he’d chip and climb to the second level. The Pats picked up Wynn’s fifth-year option because they’re thin at tackle beyond 2021. If Wynn wants an extension, though, that’ll be a difficult commitment unless he plays a full season.
- With Trent Brown, motivation is the critical factor. Brown was terrific at left tackle under Dante Scarnecchia, thanks to Scar’s ability to motivate The Mountain. Brown wasn’t the same player with the Raiders because he was unhappy with the operation. He wasn’t bad, but wasn’t a force like he was with the Pats in 2018. Keeping his mind right, and maintaining his health, will determine if he can return to peak form. Brown should play a rock-solid right tackle for the Pats, and he can move over to the left side if Wynn is out of the lineup.
- Shaq Mason is probably underrated at this point, surpassed in the eyes of some by former Pats guard Joe Thuney and Onwenu. Mason is still one of the league’s premier run blockers and pullers on New England’s power schemes. With Brown working alongside him on the right side and Onwenu as a force at left guard, the immense blocking power on this line will be special.
- David Andrews made our most important Patriots list as the glue of the offensive line. Andrews is an athletic center who is capable in pass protection, reaching tough blocks on the line of scrimmage, and getting out in space. Plus, he’s the leader of the entire operation. If Mac Jones is the starter, Andrews’s role as the table-setter before the snap will be even more critical.
- Ted Karras might technically be the sixth-man of this offensive line. His role will be important, since there will be an injury or two at some point. Karras is a starting-caliber interior lineman who will serve as New England’s top backup. With Brown and Wynn absent at times this spring, we saw five-man combinations with Karras working with the starters, a scenario we could easily see during the season. Wynn gets hurt? Slide Brown to left tackle, Onwenu kicks outside to right tackle and Karras plugs in at left guard to maintain five NFL starters on the line.
- Between Justin Herron and rookie Will Sherman, the Patriots need to find a steady fourth tackle. Onwenu is the top backup tackle, but the layer behind him and the future of both tackle spots is a secondary storyline to monitor. Herron was solid as a run blocker when he got chances as a rookie. They may have something there. The question is: will it be as a valuable backup, or does Herron have starter potential? He could start on the left side if he improves his initial steps in pass protection and becomes a stronger blocker overall.
- Yodny Cajuste is finally healthy and ready to compete. The 2019 third-round pick had good tape at West Virginia, then battled injuries throughout his early NFL career. He has immense potential thanks to a strong upper body, grip strength, and quick feet. Let’s see what he can do.