The offseason is here. The NBA has crowned its champion and navigated COVID-19 (we can get into what the Delta variant means for next season another time). Now it’s time to flip into offseason mode and get moving with the next steps for each team.
A lot has been said and written about Boston’s plan will and should be, so here’s a step-by-step look at what Brad Stevens is faced with, and should be looking to do, this summer.
Draft night:
The Celtics traded their first round pick in the Kemba Walker deal, leaving them with the 45th overall pick.
Should the Celtics try to trade into the first round? Nope. They need to save all of their trade-able assets for a potential bigger deal down the road. Even if you’re not someone who thinks that should matter, it’s unlikely that whomever they pick up is going to be the immediate contributor the team needs, so there’s no need to spend that guaranteed money right now.
What’s the plan for 45? Certainly if the Celtics see the potential for a second round steal, they will jump at the chance and figure the rest out later. Maybe Houston’s Quentin Grimes or Kentucky’s Brandon Boston Jr. is still on the board and Stevens is tantalized by their upside.
However, it’s more likely either going to be a draft-and-stash kind of guy or a player with intriguing talent willing to play on a two-way deal. Maybe they can find a Lu Dort-type of guy lingering in the draft or a foreign player willing to spend a couple of seasons growing in a different pro league.
Evan Fournier:
Before the Celtics run off into free agency, they have to figure out the Fournier situation. A fair deal for Fournier would be something in the three-year range and a total value of somewhere around $50-$55 million. Starting him at $17 million, basically what he made last season, at 5% raises is a $53.5 million deal over three years.
That also creates a $18.7 million third season that is trade-able should the Celtics need to clear cap space to sign a big free agent after two seasons.
The question with Fournier is whether the New York Knicks will swoop in with their cap space and throw $22 million for one season at Fournier because they could use a player like him and they need to spend the money somehow. Fournier would be foolish not to take it.
In my perfect world, Boston finds a starter to put alongside Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Robert Williams to allow Fournier to get bigger minutes and bigger usage off the bench.
Free agency:
The Celtics have limited options and two glaring needs: Size at the point guard spot, and a stretch-4 kind of player.
They have at their disposal the taxpayer mid-level exception, worth about $5.9 million for a free agent, and six different Trade Player Exceptions:
- Vincent Poirier, expiring 7/31/21 — $343,873
- Enes Kanter, expiring 8/1/21 — $4,767,000
- Gordon Hayward, expiring 8/16/21 — $11,050,000
- Daniel Theis, expiring 2/11/22 — $5,000,000
- Jeff Teague, expiring 2/11/22 — $370,564
- Kemba Walker, expiring 5/17/22 — $6,879,100
(via Basketball Insiders)
Most of those TPE’s will expire but the larger ones have the potential to be useful. Some of the bigger fish Boston can hope to snag are Tomas Satoransky from the Chicago Bulls, Delon Wright from the Sacramento Kings, or my personal favorite JaMychal Green if he’s willing to leave the Denver Nuggets for more opportunity in Boston.
The signings bring a little lower ceiling player, or maybe a good player looking to take a little less and be part of a winner. The latter would probably be a Patty Mills-type, who might love San Antonio but is done middling as they figure out what to do. Mills could look at the Spurs-east that Ime Udoka is building and decide he’d work in Boston.
After that, I’m looking at Kris Dunn with size at guard, Gorgui Dieng as a stretch-big off the bench, or Justise Winslow as a reclamation project with high-upside.
However they do it, the need to end up with some size in the backcourt and some shooting in the frontcourt to round out the bench.
Traditional trades:
The obvious candidate to be moved is Tristan Thompson. With Robert Williams and Al Horford, along with luxury tax concerns and more obvious holes to fill, moving his $9.7 million feels like a a priority at some point for Boston.
The question is what kind of move Stevens tries to pull if he moves Thompson. Is he simply clearing space, is he trying to find equal value at a different position, or is he looking to bring back a useful player who makes less to get the best of both worlds?
I’ve been banging the drum for a reclamation project like Juancho Hernangomez to give Minnesota a backup big and give Boston a one-year flyer on someone who has struggled in his current situation but who has had past success.
It might make the most sense, though, to carry the roster with a newly re-signed Fournier, a stretch-big, and a bigger guard into the season and then see how the whole thing fits.
Let’s put this cake in the oven and see if it will rise. If it does, then great. If it doesn’t, then Thompson’s salary and whatever appropriate additional assets can be used to find a better ingredient. Stevens doesn’t have to rush to make a million moves in July and August and then exhaust his options for the trade deadline.
That’s where the Celtics are. The marble in this Rube Goldberg machine drops on July 29 and the NBA draft. We’ll see how far Stevens can make it go.