NEW YORK -- The more you canvas people around the game, the more you hear the same projection about the Red Sox at the upcoming trade deadline.
Roughly summarized, that projection is this: Don't expect anything dramatic.
As disappointing as that might seem to fans who would like to see the Sox further solidify their chances at a long, deep run this October, it's hard to argue with the sentiment.
For one thing, Chaim Bloom has stressed the importance of building for the long-term, and going big in the next two weeks could derail the progress he's made restocking the team's minor league talent pipeline. While the occasional major leaguer-for-major leaguer deal takes place in July, the vast majority of deals at the deadline include a contending team swapping future hopes (in the form of prospects) to address more present needs (usually in the form of rentals).
For another, the Red Sox can reasonably say they've already improved themselves with the recent graduations of Tanner Houck and Jarren Duran. And while the point can be made that untested prospects are hardly assured of making significant contributions, the same can be suggested of some more experienced acquisitions who can fail to acclimate to new surroundings in the heat of a pennant race.
Finally, there's the matter of the CBT, which the Red Sox are dangerously close to embracing. Having successfully re-set their tax rate and with the prospect of some big-money deals coming off the books soon (J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez), do the Sox really want to hamstring themselves now?
All of which suggests that it's far more likely the Sox execute some more complementary moves between now and July 30. Think: a left-handed version of Steve Pearce and a less expensive Adam Ottavino -type.
So, who fits that bill?
The lefty bat is easily the more problematic of the two. In a perfect world, the Sox would find someone who could balance out Bobby Dalbec at first, but most of the first basemen that can be had are righthanded hitters -- Colorado's C.J. Cron and Miami's Jesus Aguilar included.
(The Sox currently have two players who can provide left-handed at-bats at the position, with the lefthanded Danny Santana and the switch-hitting Marwin Gonzalez - both currently on the I.L. -- but neither has delivered with any degree of consistency. In fact, both are offensive liabilities, despite the benefits of their positional versatility).
Still, the Sox can use some lefty bat -- even if it's only to serve as a pinch-hitter for Dalbec.
Would Arizona's Asdrubal Cabrera make some sense? He's a switch-hitter, makes negligible money ($1.5 million), and though he's more widely known for his work at second, short and third, he played a decent amount of first base with Washington during their championship season in 2019. (Cabrera is currently on the IL with a hamstring pull, but it's not considered a serious injury).
Another potential option: Joc Pederson who was moved over the break from the Cubs to the Braves. But the Braves are below .500 and if they don't make up ground between now and the days before the deadline, they could turn around and move him elsewhere. Pederson doesn't have a lot of experience at first, but he's played there enough to get by.
Finally, there's the internal option of Franchy Cordero, who has impressed the organization with his offensive turnaround and his ability to adapt to first base in a relatively short time. Relying on Cordero would involve some risk, of course, since he's never hit major league pitching with any degree of consistency. Still, people in the Red Sox organization believe his performance at Worcester is much more than beating up on minor league pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
While the options are minimal at first they're virtually endless in the bullpen.
One of the more intriguing options would be Ian Kennedy with Texas -- on the final year of his deal, performing at a high rate (2.67 ERA, 15 saves) and someone with both starting and closing experience.
Others that could make sense: Miami's Ross Detwiler, Washington's Daniel Hudson, Colorado's Mychal Givens, Arizona's Joakim Soria and the Cubs' Andrew Chafin.
There literally could be a dozen other relievers on the radar, since it seems more than half the deals at the deadline every year involve some excess bullpen piece being moved from one team to the other.
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In less than two seasons at the helm of the Red Sox Baseball Operations department, it would be hard to cite a signature move by Chaim Bloom -- unless, that is, you count the trading of Mookie Betts. But since that was essentially dictated even before his hiring, that doesn't qualify.
Yes, Bloom has made some smart deals. Unloading Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree in exchange for Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold was a significant upgrade. Pivetta has emerged as a middle-to-back-end starter with a high strikeout rate who remains under control for several more seasons, and though Seabold has been limited by injuries much of this season, he's still seen as someone who has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter in time.
That's a pretty good return for two relievers -- one of whom has since returned to the organization.
Other free agent moves have been, at the very least, efficient. Martin Perez has been a relative bargain for two seasons. Hunter Renfroe has vastly exceeded expectations -- all for the princely sum of $3.1 million.
But even though the Red Sox appear headed for the postseason at least one year ahead of schedule with the potential for a deep October run very much within their grasp, I would argue that that's not Bloom's primary achievement some 20 months into the job.
Instead, look at the influx of talent into the minor league system through two drafts and two international signing periods. While the Red Sox' system hasn't vaulted into the Top 10 in the estimation of experts and various evaluators, it certainly seems headed that way.
Inside the organization's Top 20 prospects, as ranked by SoxProspects.com, the Sox have added six new players since Bloom arrived either through trades or the draft. And there's little doubt that the influx of talent has meant a deepening of the talent pipeline. In other words, the 10th or 15th best prospect in the system now are far better than the similarly ranked talent that occupied those ranking spots before Bloom's arrival.
(A reminder: when the Sox added Jeter Downs in the Betts deal, he went from about the 10th best prospect in the Dodgers system to No. 2 in the Red Sox' system - a reminder of the talent gulf that existed between the organizations at the time.)
But in addition to buffeting the development system, Bloom's top achievement has been deepening the talent at the edges of the major league roster.
To my mind, that was one of the failings of the Dave Dombrowski era in Boston. Dombrowski made bold, significant moves to acquire stats (David Price, Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel, J.D. Martinez), all of whom contributed to the team's 2018 World Series title.
But Dombrowski was also a product of his era, a time when the final five spots on the roster were filled by a few non-descript journeymen or organizational players from within the system. They were relatively anonymous and interchangeable, there to provide innings in blowouts or the occasional off-day for everyday regulars.
But that's now how the game works anymore. Teams -- especially ones like the Tampa Bay Rays, Bloom's longtime employers -- have learned the value of maximizing every last spot to the fullest.
The Sox are so intent on wedging every potential contribution onto the roster that they recently created a hybrid role for Tanner Houck to achieve just that. In a unique setup, Houck will alternate between reliever and starter on successive turns through the rotation. In one turn, he'll be inserted in as a spot starter, providing an extra day of rest for the remaining starters every other outing; in the next, he'll contribute multiple-inning bullpen stints, as he did Friday night, giving a number of other relievers a down day.
It remains to be seen how workable the plan is. Will Houck fall out of rhythm being utilized in such an unorthodox manner? For that manner, will the starts, accustomed to the rhythm of working every fifth day, be thrown off at all? That remains to be seen. But the creativity at work here can't help but be applauded. And there's little question that Houck promises to provide more value than, say, Austin Brice, the man whose place he took on the 26-man roster.
The same can be said of the promotion of Jarren Duran. There came a point where the Sox believed it to be more valuable to have Duran play four times a week while contributing to a pennant contender than continuing as an everyday presence at Worcester. So, slowly, he's being integrated into the team's present while preparing for a bigger role in the future.
The arrival of Duran could squeeze others out of some playing time. Christian Arroyo is performing at such a level that he could be an everyday player for many other clubs. But with Kike Hernandez shifting to more opportunities at second base, Arroyo will likely be limited to starts against lefties while potentially eating into Bobby Dalbec's playing time at first in some matchups. Still, it speaks to the Sox' deepening collection of talent that someone the caliber of Arroyo is now the 11th or 12th player on the roster - a luxury the Sox wouldn't have dreamed of as recently as two or three years ago.
Ultimately, Bloom will be judged on how many pennants/championships win, and on the larger scale, whether he achieves his primary goal -- that of making the team a consistent World Series contender, or their "sustainability'' as he labels it.
But in a relatively short period of time, he's helped the Red Sox transition from a top-heavy, star-studded roster to one more balanced and, in time, perhaps one better positioned to make regular runs at a championship rather than suffering through the boom-bust cycle that has characterized the organization for the better part of the last decade.
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Even before the COVID-19 outbreak that forced a cancellation of their game with the Red Sox and decimated their roster, the Yankees were in trouble.
They sat eight full games back in the American League, tied with one team (Toronto) and trailing two others. Even before the virus struck, there was no certainty that they were going to qualify for the postseason, and now that it has, the team has been stripped of four important contributors -- Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela, Kyle Higashioka, and Jonathan Loiasiga -- making their already uphill journey all the more steep.
Before the virus struck, the Yankees needed a lot of upgrades: a mid-rotation starter, some lefthanded pop and perhaps some additional outfield options. It wasn't reasonable to expect that they could fill each of those needs, especially with ownership uncertain about greenlighting permission to go over the CBT and incur a luxury tax.
Now, that may be all moot. The Yankees are playing seven games against the Red Sox at a time when some -- if not all -- of the four principals unlikely to be available for any of them, and three other games head-to-head with the Rays set to follow.
Already in a bad position given the urgency of the approaching deadline, it's not hyperbole to suggest the Yankees have morphed from longshot to hopeless. It seems quite likely that the club's championship drought will soon reach a dozen years -- a lifetime for some Yankee fans of a certain age.
But even if the Yankees determine internally that being buyers makes little sense, it's difficult to see them flipping the switch to become sellers.
Yes, in 2016, the Yankees executed a hairpin turn at the deadline, determined that they were unlikely to be legitimate contenders and began a sell-off, dealing away Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller.
Repeating that strategy now, however, would seem out of the question, if for no other reason that the Yankees don't have much to sell off. Traditionally, that would include accomplished veterans heading for free agency. But on the current Yankee roster, only a few players match that description
The Yanks hold a $14 million club option for 2022 that they've already exercised on Zack Britton, but the lefty has pitched in just five games at the big league level because of injuries. If his pricetag doesn't scare teams off, his heath will. Chad Green, a solid middle reliever, has another year of control remaining before free agency and could attract interest, but is hardly going to bring a return that could fuel a turnaround.
New York's real problem is the number of underperforming veterans signed to multi-year deals that no sane executive would dare touch -- Aaron Hicks, D.J. LeMahieu, and, of course, Giancarlo Stanton.
Of course, the Yankees could go really bold and listen on Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez -- but such a drastic roster reinvention is probably better addressed in the offseason, when interested teams have more payroll flexibility and can spend the rest of the winter configuring their roster.
But at some point, the Yankees are going to have to ask themselves if they have the right core in place to win a championship in the next couple of years or whether it's time to blow it up and start over again.
It's not a question they anticipated debating as recently as a few months ago, when it was far more likely that they had expected to be wondering what they could add to an already potent mix to make them even more imposing this October.