Is Tomas Tatar a risk worth taking for Bruins?

When the Bruins signed Craig Smith to a three-year, $9.3-million contract last October, it didn't steal plenty of headlines — but it drew heaps of praise from some circles as a bargain signing for a player with a proven track record as a point producer and an analytics darling that was poised to shore up a major vacancy in Boston’s middle-six unit.

One year in, Smith sure seems to be contributing above his expected pay grade — with the veteran going from a third-line regular at the start of the 2021 campaign to a crucial cog on a revamped second line that outscored opponents, 13-1, over the final 16 games of the regular season. 

And while Smith sure seems like a home-run signing for a B’s team in desperate need of offensive catalysts outside of its proven triumvirate of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand — the fact of the matter is that Boston could still use at least one more proven scorer added to this core this summer that can elevate this middle-six unit ahead of what could be this core’s final kick at the can. 

Thankfully for the Bruins, there are plenty of wingers that fit the bill when it comes to serving as an effective complement to David Krejci and Taylor Hall on the second line (if they return, that is) or a spark plug on a third line next to a hopefully healthy Charlie Coyle. 

Names like a Conor Garland, Blake Coleman and Kyle Palmieri all offer plenty of appeal, no doubt — but be it sacrificing assets to pry a young winger like Garland out of Arizona or likely spending big bucks for a 30-and-over winger in Coleman/Palmieri, the Bruins very well could harp on getting more bang for their buck on the free-agent market, especially given the number of other tasks on Don Sweeney’s offseason to-do list.

One such target if Boston is looking to try and add some scoring punch at what could be a bargain deal is winger Tomar Tatar — who is coming off of an … interesting season, to say the least, over in Montreal. 

The 30-year-old winger would seem to be in line to cash in around the same pay rate as names like a Coleman or Palmieri given his track record as a dependable scorer — with Tatar surpassing the 20-goal mark six times in his eight full seasons up in the NHL ranks.

But after a disappointing end to his tenure in Montreal in which Tatar (who scored 30 points in 50 games) was scratched for all but five playoff games during the Habs’ run to the Stanley Cup Final — it’s tougher to accurately gauge his value on the open market especially when compared to other pending UFAs who set themselves up for higher payouts during the postseason like a Coleman, Palmieri and Alec Martinez. 

So what exactly do we have here in a player like Tatar — and more importantly, would he be a fit on this Bruins team? Let’s weigh some of the pros and cons of Boston potentially inking the skilled forward.

Pros: A proven scorer

There are plenty of areas of the roster that the Bruins must address over the course of this busy offseason, but when it comes to giving this lackluster third line a facelift — gifting that grouping a higher offensive ceiling sure seems like a necessity. 

Boston didn’t get much last season with the unit of Coyle, Jake DeBrusk and Nick Ritchie — with that mismatched crew only on the ice for two Bruins goals over 62:46 of 5v5 ice time. It remains to be seen just how drastic Boston’s overhaul of that line will be, come training camp, but it sure seems like a given that at least one new winger will be skating next to Coyle, and Boston should have its sights set on a player that can finish plays and get the most out of a puck-possession pivot like Coyle.

And when it comes to proven production, you certainly can’t go wrong with a guy like Tatar. 

As noted above, Tatar has been as steady as they come as far as baseline numbers are concerned with six 20-goal campaigns — including a 61-point season in 2019-20 that led the Habs in scoring. 

Among the 483 NHL forwards that have logged at least 500 minutes of even-strength ice time since the 2018-19 season, Tatar ranks 28th overall with a total points per 60 minutes rate of 2.62 — higher than the likes of Alex Ovechkin, Max Pacioretty, Johnny Gaudreau, Sebastian Aho, Elias Pettersson, Jack Eichel, David Krejci, Mathew Barzal and plenty other stars.

Even if his production dipped a bit in 2021 (10 goals, 20 assists in 50 games), Tatar’s points per 60 minutes at 5v5 play (2.03) would rank him seventh on the Bruins behind the club’s top-six skaters (Marchand, Hall, Pastrnak, Bergeron, Smith and Krejci) — and far above the scoring rate generated by Boston’s third liners like Ritchie (1.48), DeBrusk (1.32) and Coyle (1.05). 

He has his warts (which we will get to shortly), but adding Tatar to the mix on Boston’s middle-six grouping would give the B’s a dynamic winger that should be good for 20 goals over the span of a full 82-game campaign. 

Pros: The underlying metrics might look even better

Tatar’s baseline numbers and his consistency when it comes to filling up the scoresheet is already awfully appealing, but his underlying metrics paint him as one of the more underrated players across the league. 

Per JFreshHockey, Tatar ranks in the 94th percentile among NHL forwards when it comes to WAR over a three-year weighted average  — including a lofty 99th percentile rating at even-strength offense. 

Perhaps most impressive when it comes to gauging Tatar’s impact is that he doesn’t project as just an offensive-only liability, given that he still ranks in the 67th percentile in even-strength defense and was in the 92nd percentile of quality of competition — which signals that both him and his line were regularly handed either daunting matchups or a steady dose of D-zone starts. 

But despite those challenging minutes and assignments, the Habs’ line of Tatar, Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher has thrived as one of the top forward trios in the league over the last few years — ranking right up there with other esteemed groupings such as Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak and Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen. 

Over the past three seasons, the Tatar-Danault-Gallagher line has been out on the ice for 1500:16 of 5v5 ice time — during which the Habs have held the edge over opponents in …

Goals scored: 94-49
Shots on goal: 1040-660
Scoring chances: 931-554

… all while boasting an Offensive Zone faceoff percentage under 50 percent (49.86). Even during a 2021 season in which Tatar’s numbers dropped, that line still outscored opponents, 18-3, over 253:21 of 5v5 ice time. 

Pretty damn good.

So if all of these numbers are so stellar … then what’s the knock against him? Why could he be available on a cheaper deal than previously expected — and why are the Habs even planning on moving on from him? 

Well…. 

Cons: A putrid playoff record

When it comes to identifying the flaws in Tatar’s game, it’s awfully hard to overlook his track record in the postseason — which has certainly lowered his value on the open market, but could also force many contenders like Boston to steer clear of him this summer.

Granted, it’s one thing to not put together an impressive stat line during postseason play, but some of that can be absolved if you’re doing some of the little things to warrant a place in the lineup — be it blocking shots, creating turnovers on the forecheck, peppering the net, etc. 

The issue with Tatar is that, well, he hasn’t even found himself on the ice during critical games for over the past few seasons — with Montreal bench boss Dominique Ducharme literally scratching him for the final 17 games of the Habs’ run to the Cup Final.

That’s … just a wee bit concerning, especially given his standing as a key offensive cog on a top line for Montreal. Considering how much Montreal labored in the Cup Final against Tampa Bay when it came to generating offense, keeping a guy like Tatar out of the lineup is certainly a head-scratcher. 

Perhaps Tatar just needs a change of scenery and get away from Ducharme, but Tatar’s playoff struggles is not just a one-year blip, considering that he only has 12 points over 40 career playoff games. 

As tempting as his value could be at this point given how this postseason transpired, it sure seems like Boston would rather invest capital in a player with a more established track record in the postseason — because even if Tatar puts together another sterling stat line next to Coyle in 2021, all of those numbers aren’t going to mean much if it doesn’t translate to a fruitful Cup run that spring.

Perhaps Tatar is a gamble worth taking if his market doesn’t really materialize this summer, but given how crucial a legitimate middle-six winger should be in Boston’s offseason plans — there’s a lot to be concerned about his playoff resume and what kind of returns you're getting when the stakes are raised. 

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.