Ryan: Why any lofty offseason plans for Bruins likely hinge on David Krejci’s future in Boston

Before the Bruins can take the sizable steps towards bolstering their roster this summer in hopes of at least one more legitimate Stanley Cup run, Don Sweeney and Co. are going to have check off a number of in-house tasks on the to-do list as the calendar officially shifts to the offseason. 

Sure, it’s a lot more interesting at this time of year to parse through the multiple trade rumors and various scenarios regarding the B’s chances of swinging a trade for a blockbuster talent. But before the B’s can open up their wallets on the open market, work the phones in search of a top-four blueliner or untangle the web that is the club’s goaltending situation, Boston needs to get a read on how many of its own personnel are set to join a top-heavy free-agent class. 

And while Taylor Hall’s status as a pending big fish on the UFA market might seem to be the first domino to fall when it comes to gauging the barometer on expectations for next year, the true read on just how viable Boston’s contention window can still be in 2021 and beyond might hinge on the man in the middle of that second line. 

Because while Hall remains an extremely coveted asset that can and should be retained moving forward after a largely sterling opening tenure in Boston, the fact of the matter is that whatever hope Boston has of one final playoff push during the Patrice Bergeron era likely starts and ends with David Krejci’s return in that top-six role.

So far, Boston appears to be in a holding pattern with the 35-year-old veteran, with Krejci expressing a willingness to return to the only team he’s played for in the NHL ranks — but during his break-up day Zoom session, Krejci added that he’d need some time to mull things over with his family before deciding on his next steps. 

"I’ve obviously thought about it a lot, not just the last couple of days but the whole season, pretty much. I'm not going to give you an answer right now," Krejci said. "I’m going to need a few weeks, think about lots of things. Talk to lots of people. I love Boston. We’ll see what happens. See what happen. … I love Boston. This is my home. I just don't see myself playing anywhere else. But at the same time, we'll see what happens.”

A return to the Czech Republic could be in the cards for Krejci if he wants to continue playing, but opts to close the book on his time in North America. He could also opt to hang up his skates after 14 full NHL seasons with Boston. 

The B’s are likely hoping for the OTHER scenario, in which Krejci returns on a one or two-year deal and continues to form a two-headed monster with Bergeron down the middle of the ice. 

It’s easy to map out why Krejci’s return stands as a crucial foundation towards any potential success for the B’s in 2021-22. 

First, of course, is the production.

Even though Krejci’s stats may not leap off the page for the first stretch of the season (he didn’t tally an even-strength goal until April 13th), the playmaking maestro regained his form once Craig Smith earned a top-six promotion and Hall was added to the mix — with Krejci tallying 15 points over his final 16 games of the regular season. 

Even at his age (and granted, Krejci’s game shouldn’t necessarily decline over time as a patient playmaker that opts to dictate the pace to his liking), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Krejci could accumulate another 65-70 points over a full 82-game campaign in 2021-22 — especially with Hall back at left wing and either Smith (or another potential middle-six addition) to his right. 

But perhaps as important for the Bruins is that Krejci could give them star production from a crucial cog in the lineup … at an affordable price. Even though Krejci likely won’t be settling for pennies on the dollar given his track record, he already indicated that his next potential contract won’t be forged from a fiscal standpoint. 

“Today, I can tell you, it's not going to be about money,” Krejci said. “And at the same time, I just can't see myself playing for a different team. We'll see what happens, I guess.”

For as much as Boston should enter this offseason with some financial wiggle room with roughly $30 million in cap space (per CapFriendly), the B’s need all of the breathing room they can afford when it comes to the cap — not only because there’s a number of offseason priorities to address (and spend on) when it comes to other forward additions, beefing up the blue line and potentially augmenting their goalie corps, but also because more significant expenses loom on the horizon in 2022 and 2023 with Charlie McAvoy and David Pastrnak due for pay raises. 

So if Boston is able to retain Krejci at, say, half of his previous annual payout of $7.25 million, that means more allocated to other crucial needs — with finding another 2C simply adding to the list of Boston’s offseason tasks. 

And that, above all else, is why I land on Krejci being the true domino that determines just how tangible a Cup run is with this team in 2021.

We all know why Krejci’s return bodes well for the Bruins in terms of value and his expected stat line - but the key reason why so much hinges on his decision is due to the fact that every other contingency plan in the post-Krejci timeline is absolutely DREADFUL and/or unrealistic. 

I mean, let’s go through some of these potential backup plans and you tell me if such an avenue paints the picture of a team primed for contention in the coming months? 

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This would seem to be the most organic fallback option if Krejci leaves — and perhaps the one with the most dour return when it comes to Boston trying to maintain its status as a true contender in 2021-22.

For quite some time, it sure seemed like this was the route that Boston was looking to take when it came to preparing for Krejci’s eventual departure — in which Charlie Coyle (fresh off of inking a six-year, $31.5-million contract in November 2019) takes over the mantle at 2C, while arguably Boston’s top forward prospect in Jack Studnicka steps in at 3C and continues the pipeline of talent down the middle that has spurred the B’s success for close to two decades now.

But after what we saw in 2021, I don’t see how a Bruins team in this win-now setting can adopt a plan that carries so much risk. While Boston is hoping that offseason knee surgery will allow Coyle to regain some of his trademark assertiveness with the puck and drive play from a middle-six spot, it might be asking a lot for the Weymouth native to anchor a second line and get the most out of a set of weapons like Hall and Smith.

And as for Studnicka, it sure seems like a potential 3C gig isn’t in the cards at this juncture. While you could make the case that Boston didn’t do enough to cater to Studnicka’s strengths when it comes to extended minutes and reps at the center spot, the young forward simply didn’t have it in a disappointing 2021 campaign — tallying just one goal and three points over 20 games while ranking in the first percentile of NHLers in WAR. 

Perhaps Studnicka packs some more muscle onto his frame over the summer, surprises us all out of camp and earns a regular role in this lineup. That’d be a fantastic development for Boston — but for the B’s to operate with such a scenario being the expectation in terms of how to move on from Krejci just doesn’t compute with the rest of the B’s win-now mantra these days.

Swing a trade for a blockbuster center

Ah yes — the sexy, headline-snagging option that if the Bruins somehow manage to pull off, then hats off to them. The only true way to keep this contention window open aside from inking Krejci to a new deal would be to find a younger, dynamic option that you could automatically slot in at 2C for years to come. If it’s not a franchise pivot like Jack Eichel, other names like a Dylan Larkin also come to mind when it comes to drumming up these trade scenarios. 

That’s all well and good, but don’t forget that any efforts to find a legitimate replacement via trade is also going to deplete Boston of other assets that could be used this summer to address other very crucial areas of need right at this moment — such as additional scoring depth or help on the blue line. 

And that’s also going along with the expectation that the Bruins even have the assets to swing a trade for a true game-changer like Eichel, which, to me, I find very unlikely given the B’s crop of young players and prospects.

But even if you were able to deal for a 2C, would you rather acquire a player like a Larkin — knowing that moving assets required to pry him out of Detroit would all but destroy your chances of also dealing for other players like a Mattias Ekholm or Conor Garland? 

When it comes to navigating the trade market and maximizing your assets in any potential trade, saving those bullets for blue-line help or a middle-six winger should take the priority over dealing for a center — a situation made much easier if Krejci simply re-ups in the coming weeks. 

Find a replacement in free agency

Moving on from Krejci by looking for a replacement on the free-agent market is about a year too early — given that the 2022 free-agent class has a slew of intriguing pivots such as Aleksander Barkov, Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, Ryan Strome, Nazem Kadri, Vince Trocheck, Tomas Hertl and others. 

This 2021 class is … a bit underwhelming. After you get past defensive stopper Phillip Danault, you’ve got … Paul Stastny, Ryan Getzlaf, Nick Bonio, Casey Cizikas, Eric Staal … you see where I’m going with this?

And while Danault could be an intriguing option as a defensive force down the middle, it remains to be seen if he’s the type of guy that could maximize the offensive return that one could generate on a line with Hall and Smith.

And for as much as Krejci is mostly lauded for his playmaking ability, he’s no slouch when it comes to his defensive impact — ranking in the 81st percentile of NHL forwards last season in even-strength defense. 

(When Krejci was out on the ice for Boston, the B's expected goals against per 60 minutes rate was an impressive 1.70. When he was on the bench, that rate jumped up to 2.10). 

Danault is still a better defensive pivot, but he’d also likely command more on annual rate with his new contract than what Boston is likely going to have to pay up to retain Krejci on his short-term contract. 

Again, I’m sure I sound like a broken record at this point, but when it comes to Boston making the most out of this one or two-year window of contention, it starts and stops with running things back with Krejci — giving them a legit 2C on an affordable deal that not only shores up the top-six (with Hall likely returning), but also opens the door for Boston to use that saved cap space and other trade assets to improve other areas of this roster.

Sure, there are contingency plans in place if Krejci moves on. But aside from No. 46 donning a black-and-gold sweater in 2021, just about every other fallback option just doesn’t mesh with Boston’s plans of keeping these Cup hopes alive for at least one more winter. 

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.