Karalis: Turnovers will be Boston's demise if they don't fix the problem now

The Boston Celtics are playing in a poker game while letting other people at the table use their chips.

It's making the hands they win tougher and the hands they lose infuriating. Instead of carrying their winnings to the cage, which they should be doing right now, they're still at the table, scraping out hand after hand; winning some, losing some, and wondering what might be if they just kept their chips in front of them.

“I thought we were loose with the ball," Brad Stevens said after the g... wait no ... he said that on April 6 after the Sixers game. He also said it again after the Timberwolves game a few days later, and again after the Lakers game on the 16th, and after the Suns game Thursday night.

What he said after this game was "when you turn the ball over 19 times, and that's become an issue for our team, regardless of who's on the floor, then it's hard to come back."

No kidding.

There actually isn't a direct correlation between turnovers and wins and losses. In fact, they're 7-2 in games this season where they've turned it over 20 times or more. High turnovers teams can win if those turnovers are dead-ball travels or passes that fly out of bounds trying for fast-break layups. That stuff is going to happen and, more often than not, the fast-paced style will average that all out.

But that's not who these Celtics are. Let's look at those 20 turnover games Boston won.

Thursday vs. Phoenix (23): Phoenix was on a back-to-back and Boston's turnovers kept the Suns in it longer than they should have, especially in a third-quarter stretch where Boston threatened to push the lead past 20, but a string of turnovers allowed the Suns to get it back down to 10

February 16 vs. Denver (22): The first three quarters of that game were a brutal mess. Boston got their act together and Denver basically quit during the fourth game of a five-in-seven-game stretch. Jayson Tatum played 33 minutes and Jaylen Brown played 36.

April 15 vs. the Lakers (21): The starters were forced back into the game when the bench disintegrated and blew a 27 point lead.

April 9 vs. Minnesota (21): Boston needed 53 points from Jayson Tatum and overtime to beat the worst team in the NBA.

January 8 vs. Washington (21): The Celtics were up 28 in the third quarter but got sloppy and saw the lead get down to four with 7:36 left before holding the Wizards off.

April 7 vs. New York (20): A brutal battle between two evenly matched teams. The Celtics needed a fourth-quarter rally to win.

January 4 vs. Toronto (20): Boston led by 21 with 5:27 left but a spate of turnovers helped the lead dwindle to 10 just three minutes later.

So Boston won all of those games, but those were a lot tougher than they needed to be. The cumulative effect of those turnovers adds up over time. The extra minutes on Jayson Tatum's and Jaylen Brown's legs alone should be concerning for this team.

How many games have been needlessly extended because the Celtics have gotten too sloppy to push leads into garbage time? Stevens was asked about giving Tatum a day off in the near future, but playing smarter basketball in just those seven games could have saved Tatum 30-35 minutes of basketball, the equivalent of a single game.

"Obviously feels like at times, myself included, that we kind of like shot ourselves in the foot," Tatum said after the loss to Brooklyn. "Twenty or so turnovers in a game where their best player don’t shoot well, we’re coming back at the end of the game to give ourselves a chance. I know it’s a lot of plays and possessions we wish we had back."

Like this one?



That's objectively funny, but also it was a killer because it gave away a possession in a five-point game with 95 seconds left.

There might be an argument that the turnovers haven't hurt the Celtics yet, but I think it already has. Even if it hasn't cost them games, it has still cost them.

It hasn't just cost them minutes, it has cost them development time in a year desperate for developmental opportunities. Every time turnovers turn a late 20-point lead to 10 is a lost opportunity for players like Aaron Nesmith.

I get asked all the time about why he doesn't get many minutes (though he managed a few against Brooklyn), and my answer is always the same. This has been an unfair season for him considering his long layoff from basketball after his injury and the pandemic pause. Maybe if a few of these unnecessarily close games ended as the blowouts they should have been, Nesmith would be a step or two closer to being a bigger contributor.

The turnovers cost the Celtics against Brooklyn because they couldn't climb all the way out of a hole those turnovers dug. They've cost the Celtics in wins, too. And they'll cost the Celtics even more as they move forward and the stakes get higher.

I'm very understanding of circumstances. I know how COVID has killed a lot of momentum for Boston. I know how injuries have been a big hindrance. But the turnovers...

... well ...

The turnovers are a different animal. There are certain turnovers that are understandable. There are some that can be written off as wonderful defensive plays. But there are too many for these Celtics that are just sloppy.

Those need to go away.

One of the key tenets of Stevens' philosophy is controlling what you can control, and a lot of these turnovers are in Boston's control. They need to get them under control quickly.