Karalis: Jayson Tatum's super-charged efficiency fueling Celtics' turnaround

Every so often I get a little technical on here, and I’m afraid I might be saying things that go over people’s heads. However, sometimes it can’t be helped. I just have to say things and hope people understand. Today is one of those days. 

The Boston Celtics do better when Jayson Tatum is playing well. 

I’ll give you a few minutes to process that.

Tatum was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week on Monday. He put up an East-best 31.5 points on 48.8% shooting (38.9% from 3), 8.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists over the past week, which included the loss to Philadelphia but also Boston’s three-straight wins over New York, Minnesota, and Denver. He has put up at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in each of his last three games, which is the longest such streak by a Celtics player since Paul Pierce in 2003.

What stands out about Tatum’s week is how much he’s attacking the basket, and how well he’s finishing. Tatum has not been particularly great at the rim this season, but he has come on strong lately. 

“It’s not a lack of desire ... to get to the rim,” Brad Stevens said after the win over Minnesota. “Sometimes it’s hard to get to the rim on certain guys and you can find matchups elsewhere that are maybe more advantageous to do so. I think he has grown in his ability to seek great shots, or seek higher-efficiency shots, throughout this season.”

The numbers bear that out, and they culminated in this POTW run. 

Before the All-Star break, Tatum took 21% of his shots inside the restricted area and shot 62% over 31 games, netting him 5.5 points per game at the rim. In the 17 games since the break, Tatum has upped his production and has taken 27.1% of his shots in the restricted area. He’s shooting 73.4% on those shots, and is averaging 8.1 points per game at the rim.  

This is a much more efficient Tatum, who has also increased his 3-point production. He’s taking 40.3% of his shots from beyond the arc since the break, an increase of nearly 7%, but there’s no overall uptick in the volume of shots. There is no added usage or changes in the pace numbers. He’s just taking better shots and it shows when you see his true shooting percentage jumped 6.4%, to 61.1%, since the break.

Before the break, nearly 45% of Tatum’s shots came from somewhere other than the rim or on 3’s. Since the break, about 33.6% of his shots are non-restricted, non-3-point shots. It’s no shock to see his scoring average go up more than two points per game simply by changing his shot profile. 

His last three games supercharge this trend. 

In the three wins, Tatum has taken 16 shots in the restricted area, hitting 13 of them (81.3%). Extend that out a touch to within 5 feet of the rim and Tatum is 16 of 19 (84.2%). His true shooting has ballooned to 65.9%, best on the team during this winning streak.

Here’s how his shot chart looked against Denver. 



Notice how the shots are more bunched up in the lane and around the arc. There will always be some midrange, but you can see how Tatum is making an extra effort to get to the rim. 

Now, here’s a shot chart from earlier this year vs. Brooklyn. I picked this one because it was very close to the shooting volume (Tatum was 9-23 vs. Denver and 9-22 vs. Brooklyn).



You can see how much he was living in the midrange before the break. Here’s another 9-22 night from Tatum in a loss to the Detroit Pistons 



Tatum has been helped by the lack of rim protection he’s faced over the past three games, but even expanding his numbers out to the entire post-break performance, he’s slowly morphing his shot profile to where it needs to be. 

He’s actually following a similar path as last season, when he was miserable at the rim and figured it out as the season went on. Ultimately, he earned a spot on the All-NBA Third Team. He could do the same this year if he continues to progress this way. 

It’s no coincidence that Tatum’s progression gets more positive as he gets further away from his COVID-19 diagnosis. It’s also no coincidence that it comes as the schedule levels out for Boston and the lineups make more sense post-trade deadline. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart all have true shooting percentages over 60% since the March 25 deadline. Smart and Tatum are at peak efficiency in April. Brown is only outdone by his blistering hot December start. 

The increase in better shot-taking and making is noticeable in Boston’s best players, but it’s Tatum that’s leading the way right now. If we’re looking for signs that this turnaround is real, this is the “Welcome to Las Vegas” version. 

Boston’s best player is seeking out and making better shots. The team as a whole is following suit, and it’s showing up in the scoreboard. Their slow starts aren’t as disastrous. Their runs are longer. Their deficits aren’t quite as bad. 

“We put an emphasis on our shot profile as a team - we needed to shoot better shots than we did in the first 30 games,” Brad Stevens said the day after the deadline. “We’ve been better in the last 15, and it has to continue.”

It has. If Boston can keep this trend going, they could be playing their best basketball when they need it most.