It's been less than 12 hours since Don Sweeney and the Bruins pulled the trigger on a deal to reel in the biggest fish on the trade market — and my sentiment this morning remains the same as it was in the seconds after the reports leaked out on the Twittersphere that Boston had acquired Taylor Hall from the Buffalo Sabres.
What a frickin' steal, man.
For all of the hemming and hawing within any Hall discourse regarding his severe dip in production this season on a sullen and squalid Sabres squad (two goals, 19 points in 37 games) and his lack of a winning pedigree (this could be just the third time in Hall's 11-year career in which he punches his ticket to the postseason), you'd be hard-pressed to find any detractors about a Bruins trade that features little in terms of risk — and plenty in terms of reward.
In terms of a need, Hall stands a better option that Boston has regularly rolled out in its middle-six unit — with Boston hoping that the 2018 Hart Trophy winner can channel some of his proven scoring ways and revitalize a B's forward corps that has far too often relied on its potent triumvirate of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak to bail the club out of its impotent 5v5 production (2.04 5v5 goals per 60 min ranks 27th in NHL).
And considering the cost to pry Hall (and bottom-six forward Curtis Lazar) out of Buffalo only necessitated Boston parting ways with a second-round pick and a young player in Anders Bjork that had spent the past five games as a healthy scratch — really, what's the downside here?
Worst case, Hall's offensive production remains completely stagnant despite getting rescued from the nether-realm that is KeyBank Center up in Buffalo — prompting Boston to move on from the winger once free agency opens up this summer. Not ideal, but it's a result assuaged by the fact that the failed experiment didn't result in Boston parting ways with another first-round pick or young prospect.
And even if the best-case scenario doesn't manifest itself and Hall doesn't magically revert into the franchise winger he was during that 2018 campaign in New Jersey, the most likely scenario — in which Hall's dramatically low shooting percentages and failed high-danger chances regress back to the mean — gives Boston an awfully impressive weapon to deploy in its lineup, especially when factoring in the cost to get him.
A high-danger maestro
Despite Hall's track record of sustained offensive production (20+ goals in six seasons), one thing that's important to note about Hall is that he's never exactly been a sniper (aside from his Hart Trophy campaign where he lit the lamp 39 times). But that doesn't mean that Hall — even if his shooting percentage remains below his career threshold of 10% — can't positively impact a Bruins team that boasts far more firepower than what Buffalo rolled out on a nightly basis.
Perhaps Hall's most effective gift is his passing ability and transition talent, with the 29-year-old winger's ability to thread pucks into high-danger areas of the ice potentially giving Bruce Cassidy more freedom to tinker with his top-six and split up that 63-37-88 line in search of more scoring balance.
One of the primary reasons why the Bruins have struggled so mightily at 5v5 scoring this season has been due to a dearth of high-danger scoring chances generated (i.e., shots, tips and more quality looks that are generated in and around the crease and other Grade-A areas of the ice) — with Boston ranking dead last in the league in 5v5 high-danger chances generated per 60 minutes at 7.78.
Well, it just so happens that the Bruins are bringing aboard arguably the best driver of high-danger looks in the league — with Hall leading all NHLers this season (per the data and stats compiled by Corey Sznajder) in average 5v5 high-danger passes per 60 minutes at 4.52, followed by New York's Artemi Panarin at 3.97.
(Wanna guess where Hall is on this list in terms of high-danger passing plays at 5v5 play?)
While Hall's knack for orchestrating rush chances and sending saucer feeds into Grade-A ice often didn't led to much of anything on the scoresheet alongside a supporting cast with Sam Reinhart, Dylan Cozens, Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt and other forwards stuck on Hall's lines in Buffalo, it might be a different story in Boston.
Hall's talents could allow Boston to keep a promising top line of Bergeron, Marchand and Craig Smith (63.64 CF%, 8-2 edge in goals scored) intact — with a slumping Pastrnak potentially placated by having a guy capable of capitalizing on rush chances and Grade-A set-ups in Hall alongside him in a top-six spot. It remains to be seen just how Boston's top-six is assorted once Hall is in the fold, but the veteran winger's presence alone should offer a sizable lift in terms of Boston's efforts toward generating more Grade-A looks.
https://twitter.com/dylanfremlin/status/1375866316700090369
Regressing to the mean
Of course, while Hall has done what he can to generate Grade-A looks for his teammates up in Buffalo, Boston is also hoping for Hall to light the lamp far more often than he did during his disappointing tenure with Buffalo.
Now, does that mean that the expectations are for Hall to suddenly tally a hat trick in his first game with the Original Six franchise — or even go on a scorching 7 goals in 10 games stretch? No. But it doesn't take a hockey genius to be cognizant of the fact that Hall can't possibly keep shooting at 2.3 percent for the remainder of the 2021 season. Unless, of course, he is the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.
As we noted in our breakdown of a potential Hall trade back in March:
You also could make the case that Hall has been severely snakebit during his brief time with the Sabres — with his goals scored above average expected rating of -8.8 ranking 831st out of 832 total players in the NHL (Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk is in last place). In other words, based on the number of Grade-A chances he’s generated, Hall is close to nine goals short of what his expected production should be — chalk that up to just poor puck luck or just a lack of finish, but he’s, at the very least, generating high-danger looks. ... Followed by Craig Smith … at 188th overall (3.01). Woof.
Even though that 14% shooting percentage he achieved during that 39-goal season in New Jersey might have been an outlier, 2.3% is the statistical aberration on the other end of the spectrum. With more playmaking talent surrounding him in Boston's top-six (including potential reps on the club's first power-play unit), it seems like a given that the levee is set to break when it comes to Hall's inability to finish so far in 2021.
Strong transition game
While @dylanfremlin recorded video of Hall's ability to create Grade-A looks and extend O-zone possessions during a recent game against Boston, he also captured another key aspect of Hall's game — his ability to move the puck up the ice. While Boston has often had to rely on its puck-moving horses on the blue line in Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk to get the B's out of their own end and through the neutral zone, they have labored at times when it comes to finding dependable forwards to carry the biscuit over the offensive blue line.
sliccc pic.twitter.com/ravCa2EcFn
— dylan (@dylanfremlin) March 27, 2021
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and Corey Sznajder.