Breaking News — The Bruins, to the surprise of many, are in desperate need of some scoring help.
But with just two weeks to go between now and the trade deadline, it's becoming rather evident that this Original Six franchise — be it injuries or ineffectiveness — might have to pull the trigger on multiple deals in order to shore up various areas of need on this roster.
You could make the case that Boston needs at least one skilled winger to add to a middle-six mix in order to give a listless even-strength offense a shot in the arm, while the addition of a minutes-eating defenseman could give the B's one a stout quartet with Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Matt Grzelcyk already in place.
So if the Bruins are looking to put out multiple fires at once this deadline in order to retool on the fly, Don Sweeney might have prioritize value in some areas when it comes to maximizing the talent he can bring in with the trade assets available to him.
And when it comes to value — there may be no piece out on the trade market that has hampered his own club's potential return than Taylor Hall.
While the 29-year-old winger would — in most years — seem like a slam-dunk target for the Bruins and other teams looking to add at the deadline, Hall has deservedly earned an polarizing reputation as of late given his production (or lack thereof) in Buffalo.
But if the return is minimal for a sinking Buffalo club looking for ANY semblance of useful assets for a one-and-done player in Hall, does it make sense for the Bruins to kick the tires? Let's take a look at a couple of the pros and cons of a potential Hall trade.
PROS
Hall's value is at an all-time low
I'll be frank, the only reason why I'm even weighing a Hall trade is due to his plummeting value, and the fact that the Bruins likely won't have to give up the farm to acquire a low-risk, high-reward winger.
Had Hall been putting up expected numbers for a winger of his caliber, the Sabres (who probably would still be in the cellar of the East Division) likely would have secured a pretty significant haul at the deadline from a team in need of a legitimate top-six forward, with a first-round pick and more assets seeming like the floor when it comes to a return.
But be it a lack of tangible production (17 points in 33 games - including two goals), the value of first-round picks in a flat-cap setting or the limited number of teams that can even take money these days due to said cap limitations, Hall's value has taken a major hit over the last few months.
While TSN's Pierre LeBrun tweeted last week that Buffalo was still holding out hope that they might be able to net a first rounder for Hall, that might be wishful thinking at this point. Buffalo already only secured a third and fifth-round pick in a deal with Montreal for Eric Staal last week, with Buffalo retaining half of the forward's salary on top of it. Buffalo will certainly get more back for Hall, but a first rounder does seem like quite a reach now.
If Boston is able to acquire Hall for say, a second-round pick, a prospect or young NHLer (Anders Bjork, for example?) and maybe another low-level draft pick, would it be worth it? It certainly seems a lot more palatable — and much more realistic than this mock trade scenario that Sportsnet dropped last night.
(You getting Filip Forsberg or someone with that package? Then I'm intrigued. But not for a UFA rental like Hall — not this season, especially.)
https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1376277845069168640
If Boston does acquire Hall for a package like the one mentioned above (second-rounder, prospect/Bjork), not only does it give the club at least SOMEONE to add to the middle-six grouping, it also leaves plenty of additional assets available for Boston to acquire other talent — be it a top deadline target like Mattias Ekholm or a younger, cost-controlled sniper like Conor Garland. There's no guarantee that Hall would revert into the Taylor Hall of yesteryear in Boston, but given the low cost it'd take to acquire him, it's certainly worth a shot if you're the Bruins.
UFA status
As we noted in our NHL Notebook this weekend, acquiring multiple players with term beyond the 2021 season is likely going to cause Boston some major headaches when it comes to the Seattle expansion draft later this summer. As such, if Boston is looking at adding a few pieces, it makes plenty of sense why Sweeney would want to target pending UFAs like a Hall or Kyle Palmieri in order to save one of those coveted protection slots to keep key assets away from Kraken GM Ron Francis. Of course, that doesn't mean that any of those UFAs would be goners if Boston acquires them within the next two weeks, as Boston very well could re-sign a guy like Hall/Palmieri if they impress during their limited stints here following the Seattle draft.
Boston will likely roll with the punches when it comes to the expansion draft if they bring a guy like Ekholm or Garland aboard, but if a UFA like Hall is available, it does lessen some of the roster crunch that looms when it comes to protecting assets from Seattle.
He can't be as bad as he's been in Buffalo, right? ... Right?
Has Hall been a major disappointment this season? Of course — and that might be sugarcoating it. Hall, who has broken the 20-goal mark six times in his career (and reached the 50-point threshold seven times) has only lit the lamp twice for Buffalo in 33 games.
But on a Bruins club where he'd be likely be afforded easier matchups in more of a complimentary role in the middle-six — and likely paired with much more talent than he's been saddled with in Buffalo (especially with Jack Eichel on the shelf) — Hall, even if he's not at the level he was at during his tenure as top dog with the Devils, should be a marked improvement over some of Boston's other options on the wing.
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1376640523293880330
You also could make the case that Hall has been severely snakebit during his brief time with the Sabres — with his goals scored above average expected rating of -8.8 ranking 831st out of 832 total players in the NHL (Ottawa's Brady Tkachuk is in last place). In other words, based on the number of Grade-A chances he's generated, Hall is close to nine goals short of what his expected production should be — chalk that up to just poor puck luck or just a lack of finish, but he's, at the very least, generating high-danger looks, which have been few to come by on a Bruins team that ranks 29th out of 31 NHL teams in terms of 5v5 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.
In total, among the 578 NHLers that have logged at least 200 minutes of 5v5 ice time this season, Hall ranks 44th in terms of individual high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 4.24.
The highest Bruin on that list? Nick Ritchie at 87th overall (3.71 high-danger chances per 60).
Followed by Craig Smith ... at 188th overall (3.01). Woof.
So if Hall is available for cheap, what's the harm in bringing aboard a guy that, at the very least, can generate some of the high-danger looks that this team has been sorely missing? It'd be fair to assume that there's a rather strong correlation between high-danger scoring chances and tangible goals – and at this point, Hall stands as a better option that what Boston is currently rolling out next to either David Krejci or Charlie Coyle.
CONS
Downward trend?
Of course, even if Hall might just serve as a rental that Boston can part ways with after this season if things don't work out, it's far from a guarantee that Hall is the surefire solution to the Bruins' scoring woes. As we learned from last year with an analytical darling like Ondrej Kase — you can pepper the net all you want and generate high-danger chances. But if those don't translate into actual goals, then ... well, all of the fancy stats end up meaning squat, right?
Even if Boston acquires Hall on a bargain deal, it shouldn't be viewed as the only move that the B's need to make in order to maximize the potential on the roster. Hall very well could become the missing link on Krejci's line, but based on his slip in play since his Hart Trophy campaign and his poor finishing luck this season, he's not a guy that you can simply pencil as being good for 10+ goals during the final 20-ish games of the regular season and beyond. Hall still has loads of potential — but him realizing it, and it translating into the actual scoreboard, remains another issue.
Boston simply may not bother after this past offseason
Of course, after Hall spurned multiple Cup contenders to foolish ink a one-year deal with the Sabres (where he likely hoped a year with Eichel would inflate his numbers and set up another nice payday this summer), Boston could very well pass on a guy who they could have brought aboard back in the fall without having to give away any assets. There are plenty of question marks surrounding Hall's track record as a featured player on plenty of ... well, not good teams. For a team that values character and a "winning" mentality, perhaps Boston steers clear — even though, again, if things don't pan out, Boston can just cut bait this offseason.
As you can probably infer from this column, I'm squarely now in favor of a potential Hall deal — AS LONG AS the price remains palatable (i.e., a first-round pick or A-tier prospect isn't the cost). Not only is Hall a better option that what Boston currently has, but the low asking price opens the door for Sweeney to make more moves. At this point, what more can you want from a deadline deal?
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, JFreshHockey and HockeyViz.