Let's go through what we already know at this point, shall we?
The Bruins — who still rank 29th among 31 NHL teams in 5v5 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of play — are in need of some scoring punch in the middle-six before the NHL's trade deadline passes on April 12.
But filling the void that has lingered to David Krejci's right for years now is far from the only avenue Boston might take when it comes to shoring up its roster for another potential Cup run this summer. Even though Boston's shorthanded D corps has more than held its own this season, it makes plenty of sense for Don Sweeney and the B's to pursue another top-four veteran on the backend — giving the club an awfully stout quartet in Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk and {insert deadline splash here}.
For most of the last month, talks regarding said potential {deadline splash} have centered on Nashville defenseman Mattias Ekholm — who checks off pretty much all of the boxes as the belle of the proverbial trade-market ball. He's a veteran (30 years old), can log plenty of minutes (22:40 ATOI) and even has an extra year of control off of an absurdly affordable contract ($3.75 million AAV).
And even though it'd seem rather obvious Boston's best way to inject more scoring into the lineup is via talented snipers on the wing, don't discount what a D-man like Ekholm can bring to this lineup on the offensive end. A patented puck-mover despite his 6-foot-4 frame and armed with a heavy shot, Ekholm is more than just a minutes-eating menace — tallying five goals and 14 total points through 28 games this season.
In terms of 5v5 points per 60 minutes, Ekholm ranks 28th out of 202 defensemen this season (min. 200 minutes of 5v5 ice time) with a rate of 1.2 — higher than other big names like McAvoy (1.11), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1.15), Dougie Hamilton (1.11) and Victor Hedman (0.9). You factor in that the addition of Ekholm would also allow Boston to slot a youngster like Jeremy Lauzon or Jakub Zboril further down the lineup — reducing the risk that'd come with entering the postseason with a rookie thrust into a high-pressure spot — and Boston jumping into the sweepstakes for the coveted Nashville D-man sure sounds like a no-brainer, right?
Well, there's a few roadblocks standing in the way of Ekholm donning another gold sweater in due time.
Leading off, obviously, is the price — as TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported this week on the network's "Insider Trading" segment this week that Nashville is looking for a first-round pick, an "elite" prospect and an additional asset in return for Ekholm.
That's an awfully steep cost for the Bruins or any team for that matter — with Boston also remaining cognizant of the fact that parting ways with valuable trade chips like a first-rounder also depletes some of the assets available to them if they remain interested in also dealing for an impact winger.
But further complicating matters for Ekholm — and frankly, any trade target Boston might acquire with term beyond the 2021 season — is that looming Seattle expansion draft, which is poised to make any significant trade package that Boston parts with next month even more painful, as it likely guarantees the loss of another key cog later this summer.
Label it a good problem to have, but the Kraken have to be licking their chops at the bevy of Bruins blueliners that will be available to them when they poach 30 other rosters as part of their scheduled expansion draft.
At this point, if the Bruins hold firm with a 7-3-1 format when it comes to protecting players on their roster (a full explainer on the Seattle expansion draft is featured in that link), it means that McAvoy, Carlo and likely Grzelcyk will be safe from the grasp of Seattle GM Ron Francis. That's all well and good, even if it's still going to sting if the Kraken then turn around and snag a young, cost-effective blueliner like Lauzon or Zboril.
But you add a guy like Ekholm into the mix, and things get a lot more complicated for Boston with that 7-3-1 format. If Boston parted ways with a first-rounder, a top prospect and another piece to acquire Ekholm — it could ultimately lead to Boston eventually losing four total key assets, as Boston may have to leave Grzelcyk unprotected in the expansion draft now that another top-four skater with term in Ekholm is taking up a protected spot.
That's not an ideal scenario for Boston, to say the least — especially given the level of play that Grzelcyk has maintained since returning from a slew of lower-body ailments to open the season.
Despite Boston's struggles at 5v5 play, you could make the case that the B's have one of the most impactful, playmaking defensive pairings in the game in McAvoy and Grzelcyk — who have consistently been able to tilt the ice in the Bruins' favor when out on a shift thanks to their offensive acumen, speed and ability to push the puck out of the D zone in a hurry.
Among the 142 D pairs that have logged at least 100 minutes of 5v5 ice time together this season, the Grzelcyk-McAvoy pairing ranks:
1st in SF% — with Boston holding a downright absurd 93-33 edge in shots on goal during Grzelcyk-McAvoy's 141:15 of 5v5 ice time.
3rd in CF% — with Boston holding a 159-84 edge in shot attempts during that 141:15 of ice time.
1st in GF% — with Boston holding a 7-1 edge in goals scored when both skaters are on the ice.
That's awfully impressive, especially considering it's not like Bruce Cassidy has been handing them a bevy of favorable starts in the offensive zone either — with their 51.35 Offensive Zone Faceoff percentage ranking 61st among those 142 D pairs. The two D pairs with higher CF% than Grzelcyk-McAvoy are Colorado's Toews-Girard and Girard-MacDonald — who have Offensive Zone Faceoff percentages of 74.26% and 67.42%, respectively.
"They're real clean," Cassidy said of Grzelcyk and McAvoy after both impressed in Boston's 3-2 win over the Sabres on Saturday. "Two schools of thought. One is you have offensive guys playing together sometimes, you lose something on the other pairs. And we've discussed that internally, that's why we started them apart. We've just thought that since we had the rash of injuries that we'll have the one strong pair and split them up periodically, see if we can get some easy transition out of our end against good offensive lines, that can get frustrated.
"Obviously if you look at the first goal, (Grzelcyk) walks the blue line, lateral movement - stuff we're trying to get all our younger guys to do better and find a shooting lane … Charlie McAvoy, just kind of making plays with his feet, going down the wall. So, it's both ways, offensively, down the wall and across the blue line, and then obviously your skill has to take over.
"That's what I like about them, they give the forwards some pucks in good spots. Try to match them up as much as possible with a good offensive line and see where it takes us. And it's usually to good places."
With Grzelcyk signed through 2024 at a $3.6 million annual cap hit, Boston is far from content with letting Seattle snatch someone that they view as a key piece of this roster with nothing in return — even if it was the final chess move of a larger deal involving a key pick-up like Ekholm.
Of course, if Boston still pulls the trigger on a deal and adds an impact defenseman like Ekholm with term beyond 2021, the club could opt to go the 8-1 route over the 7-3-1 format when it comes to protecting players — with Boston given free rein to protect eight skaters (either forwards or defensemen) and one goalie.
Of course, that would allow Boston to protect McAvoy/Carlo/Grzelcyk/Ekholm(?), but it would then create another slew of issues in terms of forwards to protect — as the four remaining spots would go to guys with movement clauses/no brainers in Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak and Coyle.
But by protecting four defensemen, you protect fewer bodies overall, with the Seattle then getting a chance to pick up guys that otherwise might have been protected like Trent Frederic, Nick Ritchie, Jake DeBrusk and Craig Smith — and any other forward with term that Boston potentially picks up ahead of the deadline (getting a guy like Conor Garland, for example, would pretty much eliminate any chance of Boston going with the 8-1 strategy).
Of course, these headaches don't hit a critical stage if Boston either stands pat at the deadline or acquires pending UFAs like a David Savard or a Kyle Palmieri — but in terms of acquiring assets designed to improve this team both now and in the coming years, it makes plenty of sense why Boston might be targeting players under team control like Ekholm or Garland.
Ultimately, it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for Boston. They very well could just accept that they're going to lose a good player regardless to Seattle and just swing for the fences this season. Still, in terms of overall asset management, it'd be a brutal hit for Boston to lose players like Grzelcyk, Frederic, DeBrusk and others to an expansion draft — as opposed to, say, a Bjork or another depth piece.
Boston could try to wiggle their way out of this situation by trading with the Kraken in order to keep Seattle from taking an unprotected player. The Wild did that back in 2017 during the Vegas expansion draft — dealing one of their top prospects in Alex Tuch to the Golden Knights in return for the NHL's latest franchise promising not to take either Marco Scandella or Mathew Dumba.
The Ducks, wanting to avoid losing either Sami Vatanen or Josh Manson, traded one of their top prospects in Shea Theodore (a big ol' whoops there from Anaheim) to Vegas in return for the Knights taking Clayton Stoner with their official expansion-draft selection.
So Boston could try to strike a deal with Francis in order to protect a guy like Grzelcyk or any other valuable unprotected piece, but you run the risk of being at the mercy of a rival GM who's looking to build a winning roster in short order. Seattle could straight up pitch it to Boston — "Hand us a second-round pick and a A-tier prospect - or Grzelcyk is ours." Again, not ideal.
For now, the Bruins are focused on the 2021 season, and trying to maximize what very well could be one of the final chances for this veteran core to compete for a Cup. But whatever moves Sweeney and the Bruins make in the next few weeks, just know that there are still plenty of dominos to fall this summer — with the Kraken waiting for a chance to chisel off a key piece of this B's roster.
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Moore's LTIR implications
Another thing worth monitoring when it comes to the Bruins' deadline plans revolves around just how cap space will be available to them as they bring aboard new contracts. With John Moore's season coming to a premature end due to hip surgery, it's important to note the role that long-term injured reserve (LTIR) plays as far as cap management goes.
As we noted in our breakdown of LTIR from back in 2019, placing a player on LTIR (like Moore, in this situation) gives that team temporary cap relief that hinges upon the cap hit of the player sent on LTIR. But placing a player on LTIR does not remove their cap hit from a team’s overall payroll.
So Moore's $2.75 million cap hit doesn't just magically get taken off the books now. Rather, LTIR gives a club a way to exceed that cap ceiling if necessary, up to the amount of the cap hit of the LTIR’d player. So if Boston reaches the upper limit of the salary cap ($81.5 million) by taking on contracts via trade, placing Moore on LTIR allows the B's to exceed that $81.5 million by the $2.75 million cap hit tabbed on Moore's contract.
It's a helpful tool to have, with the Lightning currently gallivanting around with a $98 million cap hit, but still compliant based on the fact that the team has 17,712,500 on LTIR right now — headlined by Nikita Kucherov and his $9.5 million cap hit. Of course, in Kucherov's case, that $9.5 million WILL be applied back to the normal cap space limit once he is activated to play once again, but for a guy like Moore who is on the shelf for the remainder of the year, there is little risk when it comes to cap relief brought on by LTIR.
It's definitely something worth monitoring, especially with other banged-up skaters on the B's like Kevan Miller and Ondrej Kase ($2.6 million cap hit) still up in the air when it comes to their expected return.
Boston Pride take home second NWHL title
Hats off to the Boston Pride, who captured their second NWHL title with a dramatic 4-3 win over the Minnesota Whitecaps at Warrior Ice Arena Saturday night. With the win, the Pride stand as the NWHL's first two-time Isobel Cup winner, having taken home their first title back during the NWHL's inaugural season in 2016.
https://twitter.com/TheBostonPride/status/1375985563510145032
It's been a long wait for the Pride, who were poised to battle the Whitecaps in the Isobel Cup Final last season before the COVID-19 pandemic canceled the championship game just two days ahead of puck drop. The NWHL re-started its 2021 campaign up in Lake Placid, New York, back in February — but COVID protocols eventually shuttered the bubble tournament, eventually leading to the Isobel Cup playoffs getting pushed to Warrior Ice Arena this week.
The fourth-seeded Pride stormed their way to another championship by taking down the top-seeded Toronto Six in the semifinals on Friday — with six different players scoring (Tereza Vanisova, Jillian Dempsey, Mallory Souliotis, McKenna Brand, Sammy Davis and Mary Parker) in the convincing win.
On Saturday, the Pride rallied from an early deficit, tallying three goals in the second period from Parker, Dempsey and Lexie Laing to take a 3-1 lead into the final period of play. Minnesota's Allie Thunstrom cut into the Pride's lead with her second goal of the evening at 7:46 in the third, but Taylor Wenczkowski gave Boston the lead for good with a power-play tally.
https://twitter.com/OnHerTurf/status/1375986504779112452
Minnesota did make one final push after Vanisova was whistled for a five-minute major with 2:25 left — scoring during 6v4 play with just 19.4 seconds remaining in regulation to make it a one-goal game. But that was all that the Whitecaps managed to get by Pride goalie Lovisa Selander, who stopped 27 wins in the championship victory.