Karalis: Boston Celtics launching 3's like never before, which is fine if they do it the right way

The Boston Celtics are letting it fly. Of course, everyone is nowadays. 

Just 10 years ago, in the 2010-11 season, the Orlando Magic led the NBA by taking 25.6 3-pointers per game. Nine NBA teams averaged 20 or more 3-pointers. 

This year, The Cleveland Cavaliers are last in the NBA in 3-point attempts. They’re taking 27.5 per game. All but four teams take at least 30 3’s per game. Four teams take more than 40. The Utah Jazz take 43. 

Heck, Marcus Smart alone took 20 in a game last season, and he hit 11 of them to set the team record. 

Bill Fitch couldn’t have coached in today’s NBA.

The Celtics have taken their 3-point shooting to another level this month. They have the fourth-best offense in the NBA in March. They are third in made 3-pointers and second in 3-point percentage. They are averaging 38.2 3-point attempts in March, but they’ve really upped the long-range bombing lately.

They put up 47 3-point attempts in each of their games against Milwaukee this week, and those were only the second-most this season. The most was 55, four games ago against the Orlando Magic.

“We put an emphasis on our shot profile as a team,” Brad Stevens said after the Friday night win over Milwaukee. “We needed to shoot better shots than we did in the first 30 games. We’ve been better in the last 15, and it has to continue.”

The hierarchy of desired scoring starts with layups and dunks, then free throws, and then 3-pointers. This season, Boston is 22nd in the NBA in restricted area field goal attempts. They are 17th in free throw attempts. And, prior to March, they were 22nd in 3-point attempts.

Bad. Bad. Bad.

But they are 11th in mid-range attempts, another big no-no, especially when they’re not even hitting 42% of them. It is, and I can’t express this enough, horribly inefficient. 

“We're trying to get better in the area as a group,” Jayson Tatum said after going 4-7 from deep. “From person to person, guys have different roles so it varies on certain shots. What's good for somebody may not be good for someone else. As professionals, being on a team, you understand that. It's something we are all working towards collectively.”

Chasing the right shot profile means eliminating most mid-range shots. Sometimes those will be the only good shots available, and teams will have to take them. Some players, and Jaylen Brown is in this group, hit them at a high enough percentage that they can still be part of an efficient offense.

However, the formula is the formula because the math works. Layups are easy, and they often lead to players getting fouled. But also, the threat of the layup is so scary to defenses that they often overreact to it, which gives teams opportunities to get good looks from deep. 

For example…



Smart’s baseline drive drew everyone’s attention. Tatum relocated beautifully. The defense overreacted to Smart, which forced a worse overreaction to Tatum. He barely had to do anything to get the defender to bite and fly past him. 

This is the perfect 3-pointer. Dribble penetration and a paint touch leading to a wide-open corner attempt. 

“You have to generate them the right way,” Stevens said. “Milwaukee is one of the best at closing down the paint … Three is an opportunity against this team if you can get them to over-help on the drive, and so that’s what was there. We have to continue to make sure we generate them the right way.”

Teams would shoot 100 of these every game if they could, and they’d be right to. Hitting just 35% of them would lead to 105 points, which means they’d have to shoot 53% on 2-pointers to beat that output.  

Half the league, including the Celtics, is below that number. 

And so the future of this Celtics season hinges, at least offensively, at generating these 3-pointers with attacking and ball movement. The problem, though, is that once a few of those shots fall, players tend to fall in love with them and they get away from what has worked. That’s the challenge Boston faces. 

“You don't need those mid-range shots,” Tatum said, which is refreshing because he’s the biggest culprit in the high volume/low percentage mid-range problem. “We talk about it, we know a good shot for a couple of us may not be the best shot for somebody else. That's just knowing the game and knowing the personnel on the floor to get the best shot on that possession for our team.”

The Celtics offense is sliding more and more towards bigger 3-point volume. Evan Fournier will be more than happy to take part in this long-range fun. Moe Wagner will gladly spot up behind the arc. 

So long as the Celtics keep creating most of their 3-pointers by using the drive-and-kick formula, they’ll continue to climb the offensive rating rankings. They need to keep building up this offense because their defense continues to struggle, and an elite offense will at least give them a fighting chance. 

Even at their high volume over the last four games, they still hit 44% of their 3-pointers, second-best in the NBA over that stretch. However, if they fall in love with 3-pointers and just start firing without attacking and creating good looks by collapsing the defense, they’ll watch their percentages, and their season, crater again.