Stop if you've heard this before — but the Bruins are in desperate need of scoring help.
As we've covered time and time again in postgame columns penned after another top-heavy scoring output from Boston's top line — or following frustrating shutout losses to a true Murderers' Row of netminders like *check notes* Scott Wedgewood and Keith Kinkaid — Boston's offense is in ... rough shape.
When they're not buoyed by Patrice Bergeron and Co. or what has been a hot-and-cold power play, the Bruins find themselves in a familiar spot, hampered by a lack of consistent scoring output elsewhere during even-strength play despite having a bevy of accomplished and talented candidates sprinkled further down the lineup like David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk, Charlie Coyle, Craig Smith and others.
Failing to pack a punch at 5v5 play has been an ever-present flaw on this Bruins team for years now — perhaps best emphasized during Boston's last two promising (and ultimately painful) Stanley Cup runs. With the 63-37-88 line limited to just three points at even-strength play over seven games, Boston let a Stanley Cup slip through its fingers in 2019 against the Blues — with Sean Kuraly leading all Bruins in even-strength scoring during that series with five total points.
And the following summer, a Presidents' Trophy campaign and planned revenge tour was derailed by the Lightning up in the Toronto bubble, with the Bolts emerging victorious in the five-game set — due in large part to a lopsided margin in even-strength scoring (five total EV goals for Boston — and 15 for the Lighting).
Fast-forward to 2021 — and it's the same ol' story ... albeit even uglier.
While Boston remains one of the stingiest teams in their own zone (2.29 GA/G - 4th in NHL / 89.4% PK success rate - 1st in NHL), its lack of scoring has been the primary reason why the club is currently teetering on the edge of the dreaded fifth seed in the East Division past the midway point of the 2021 campaign.
When it comes to 5v5 play, Boston's offensive totals are downright ugly. Currently, Boston ranks 29th among 31 NHL teams in both 5v5 expected goals per 60 minutes (1.97) and high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (7.89). The only teams below Boston in both categories? The Blue Jackets and the cellar-dwelling Red Wings. Yuck.
In other words, not only are the Bruins not putting pucks in the back of the net, they're not doing a whole lot to generate the looks that often lead to pucks tipping past goalies and tumbling home from the blue paint.
As such, it's pretty much a given that if Boston wants to orchestrate another promising Cup run, it's going to need to add some firepower up front ahead of the April 12 trade deadline — if not sooner.
At this point, you already know plenty of the names — whether it be familiar trade targets like Kyle Palmieri, seemingly untouchable pipe-dream pieces like Filip Forsberg, West-Coast imports like Rickard Rakell and proven winners like ... Taylor Hall.
But another young, but very promising, winger might be in play out west — as Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman said on his latest Headlines segment this weekend that teams have been inquiring about Arizona Coyotes forward Conor Garland.
"Conor Garland - he's got 24 points in 27 games. He's having a tremendous year. He's a restricted free agent with arb rights after this season. I'm hearing Arizona has been asked about him," Friedman said. "And it's not something I think they really want to do, but if the offer is big enough that it allows them to restock — I think they're going to at least consider it."
Even though he may not draw the same headlines as a few more established stars out there on the trade market, there's an awful lot to like about Garland — especially if added to this Bruins roster.
And no, it's not because he's another NHLer hailing from the Commonwealth.
No, the reason why the Scituate native offers so much appeal for the Bruins is simply that he offers something the Bruins have been sorely lacking outside of that top line — consistent offensive production at even-strength play. As Friedman noted above, the 25-year-old forward is in the midst of a very strong third season up in the NHL ranks, pacing Arizona with 25 points (nine goals, 16 assists) through 30 games.
Those gaudy scoring totals (which would rank third on the Bruins) have been far from just a flash in the pan for a winger that generally doesn't get much press due to his club's relative obscurity, given that in a COVID-shortened 2019-20 campaign, Garland managed to light the lamp 22 times in 68 games.
While some of the forward targets that Boston are likely keeping tabs on ahead of the April 12 deadline have an established track record of consistent point production, plenty of that is also supplemented by heavy reps (and points) on the power play— which, while certainly welcome on Boston — is not the primary area of need for a roster that so often finds itself stuck in neutral when the Bergeron line isn't dominating its matchup.
But Garland has rarely relied on the man advantage to post his promising offensive numbers, with just 15 of the 64 points he's accrued over the last two years coming on the power play.
In fact, if you weigh Garland's 5v5 numbers against a sizable pool of NHL talent, his metrics are pretty elite — and likely undervalued — at this point in his career.
Since the start of the 2019-20 season, there have been 595 NHLers that have logged at least 500 minutes of 5v5 ice time. Among that huge grouping, Garland ranks...
21st overall in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes (1.16) — higher than marquee names like Logan Couture (1.14), Mika Zibanejad (1.12), Brayden Point (1.11), Mark Stone (1.04), Patrick Kane (1.04), Filip Forsberg (0.86) and Kyle Palmieri (0.85).
50th overall in 5v5 points per 60 minutes (2.22) — which would be third-highest on the Bruins outside of Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak.
33rd overall in 5v5 shots per 60 minutes (9.2) — tied with Patrice Bergeron for fourth on the B's.
68th overall in 5v5 scoring chances per 60 minutes (8.54) — which would be third on the Bruins.
Much like the Bruins, the Coyotes are in a similar sordid state in the O-zone, with the 'Yotes ranked 27th in the NHL in goals per game at 2.42 (Boston is ranked 23rd overall at 2.68).
But Garland has been a bright spot for Arizona when he's been on the ice, with the Coyotes holding an expected goals per 60 minutes rate of 2.90 when he's out on a shift this season — and an expected goals rate of 1.90 when he's on the bench or not playing.
(For reference on Micah Blake McCurdy’s individual impact charts via Hockey Viz — On the offensive side of things, you’d want to see a player providing positive numbers — with the red blobs signifying where the team is generating a majority of their shots from whenever said player is on the ice. As you can see above, when Garland is out on the ice, the Coyotes are generating plenty of excess shots around the slot and other high-danger areas.)
A lot of that established 5v5 production comes from Garland's willingness to operate and shoot the puck from Grade-A ice. According to MoneyPuck, Garland's average shot distance during 5v5 play is 28.5 feet from the net — which would lead all Bruins skaters this season (Nick Ritchie paces the pack in Boston with an average shot distance 30.6 feet). Garland also has developed a knack for creating havoc off of rebound chances and strong forechecking pressure — with 7.1 percent of his shots leading to second-chance bids in front.
You add in Garland's age (just turned 25 on March 11), his cheap salary ($775,000), RFA status (eligible for arbitration this offseason) and the fact that he still hasn't yet reached his full potential — and it seems like the winger would be a natural fit with Boston, both in 2021 and the coming years.
Of course, as Friedman said, it's not like the Coyotes are willing to part ways with Garland for pennies on the dollar, as it would likely take a significant offer to pry him loose. Still, Arizona as an NHL franchise is ... in rough shape, as we covered extensively when the Coyotes tried to unload Oliver Ekman-Larsson's albatross contract on the Bruins this past fall. Be it financial issues (such as being behind on rent payments for their own arena), a depleted farm system (ranked 25th overall by the Athletic) and no 2021 first-round pick due to predraft scouting violations, it's pretty clear that Arizona needs to restock some of its young talent.
If Boston headlines a package with a first-round pick, would Arizona bite? Of course, parting ways with such draft capital shouldn't be taken lightly, especially with Boston also on the prowl for blue-line help this season. Of course, you could justify the high price tag for Garland by noting that he'd be far from a rental — with the 25-year-old winger lifting the Bruins offense in 2021 and hopefully for years to come as a potential second-line stalwart.
There are plenty of intriguing names that Boston should be combing over in the coming weeks ahead of the deadline. But when it comes to both proven production with still untapped potential, Garland makes an awfully compelling case as a coveted target for the B's in 2021.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz, CapFriendly and MoneyPuck.