NBA Notebook: How a wave of extensions impacts 2021 free agency outlook for Celtics

2021 NBA Free Agency was supposed to include a bonanza of big names hitting the open market after an underwhelming crop during 2020 free agency. However, the weeks ahead of the start of the NBA regular season this past week were incredibly busy for many front offices and some key players around the league. In fact, some of the most lucrative new contracts signed this fall weren’t inked by 2020 free agents but went to veterans and rookie scale extensions that elected not to test the open market in 2021, instead opting for extensions in November and December.

Let’s take a closer look at these deals, why bigger names are opting for them now and the underlying impact on the current Celtics outlook that we explored a few weeks back as Boston’s front office elects to plan for the future around Jayson Tatum and company.

Rookie scale contract extensions

Last Monday was the deadline for teams to reach agreements with any player entering the final year of their rookie deals. The Celtics did not wait nearly that long to come to terms with Jayson Tatum on a max deal, along with other big names like Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo and De’Aaron Fox who were taken care of by their respective teams once free agency began in November.

However, a number of fourth-year role players also reached contracts with their teams ahead of the December 21 deadline, opting for security ahead of testing the restricted free agent market next summer. They included

OG Anunoby (Four years, $72 million)
Derrick White (Four years, $70 million)
Jonathan Isaac (Four years, $69.6 million)
Luke Kennard (Four years $56 million)
Markelle Fultz (Three years, $50 million)
Kyle Kuzma (Three years, $40 million)

Overall, that’s 10 rookie-scale extensions for the 2021 free agent class, which is far higher than the NBA average of 6-7 in recent years. It also leaves a rather underwhelming list of names that will hit the restricted free agent market next summer, highlighted by Lonzo Ball, John Collins and Lauri Markkanen.

Veteran contract extensions

On top of a lot of the younger starpower that were expected to hit free agency in 2021 getting paid early, four of the biggest veteran names in the 2021 class decided that they weren’t going anywhere in the past two weeks. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the biggest story by announcing to sign his supermax extension with the Bucks, but Paul George, LeBron James and Rudy Gobert elected to lock in early paydays as well.

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Five years, $228 million
Rudy Gobert: Five years, $205 million
Paul George: Four years, $176 million
LeBron James: Two years, $85.6 million

So what exactly is fueling all of this early extension action for top stars? A good chunk of it has to do with the current financial state of the NBA salary cap. In the wake of the declines in revenue thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, the salary cap is only expected to rise minimally 3-5 percent for at least the next couple of seasons.

In past seasons this decade, NBA salary cap growth year-by-year has been much higher than that, which has made it a worthy risk for top players to opt for free agency rather than take limited raises teams can offer in an extension (8 percent) which may not have matched cap growth. With the decline in salary cap increases expected to remain a threat for the next few seasons, players that were in places they wanted to play saw no reason to wait since an extension now was likely the best way for guys like George and James to maximize their earnings. Antetokounmpo and Gobert got supermax deals (or a partial one in the case of Gobert) so those types of deals rewarded the small market teams as originally intended, giving those teams an edge to offer more than competitors on the open market.

So with all of those big names locked up, what’s left for teams during 2021 NBA free agency? It’s a pretty underwhelming list

Point Guards 

Spencer Dinwiddie
Derrick Rose
Victor Oladipo
Lou Williams
Dennis Schroder
Jrue Holiday (player option)
Lonzo Ball (restricted)
Josh Hart (restricted)
Kyle Lowry
Chris Paul (player option)
Patty Mills
Devonte Graham (restricted)

Analysis: Probably the deepest position of solid names available. Holiday isn’t going anywhere since Bucks have no choice to pay him what he wants after getting up the farm for him. Paul probably isn’t turning down $40+ million in phoenix so that leaves some intriguing top-tier names still in play here highlighted by Oladipo and Lowry. Schroder is already rumored to be getting close to an extension with the Lakers so he may be one name to cross off the list. Otherwise, a lot of bench spark plugs should be available in Rose, Williams and Mills.

Wings

Kawhi Leonard (player option)
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Otto Porter
Will Barton
Kelly Oubre Jr.
PJ Tucker
Ben McLemore
Doug McDermott
Duncan Robinson (restricted)
JJ Redick
Mo Harkless
Alec Burks
Reggie Bullock
Trevor Ariza
Evan Fournier
Danny Green
Norm Powell
DeMar DeRozan
Rudy Gay

Analysis: A very underwhelming list of names after Leonard, who is probably staying put in LA (although he holds the leverage). After that? A 31-year-old DeRozan probably tops the list of top tier options. Robinson is going to earn a massive payday given the lack of elite shooters on this list but beyond him, there aren’t many names on this list that are worthy of much more than mid-level money.

Stretch bigs

John Collins (restricted)
Lauri Markkanen (restricted)
Paul Millsap
Serge Ibaka (player option)
Kelly Olynyk
Bobby Portis (player option)
Mike Scott
Nemanja Bjelica
LaMarcus Aldridge
Blake Griffin (player option)

Analysis: It’s hard to envision Griffin turning down his $39 million player option given his injury history but I guess we will find out how much he wants out of Detroit. Elsewhere, Collins and Markkanen are heavy favorites to stay put and everyone else on this list will be approaching the tail end of their primes, especially names like Millsap, Ibaka and Aldridge.

Centers

Daniel Theis
Cody Zeller
Jarrett Allen (restricted)
Andre Drummond
Montrezl Harrell (player option)
Nerlens Noel
Zach Collins (restricted)
Richaun Holmes
Robin Lopez
Enes Kanter
Aron Baynes (team option)

Analysis: This list could get a lot bigger given the number of team options that were given out to centers in last year’s free agency. However, there are no stars on this list and honestly few players worthy of even mid-level money. I’ll be fascinated to see how much Drummond has to settle for after being overpaid for the past four seasons. The Celtics can feel good about the market for Theis not getting too crazy with the quality names on this list and the stretch bigs list.

How does this change in landscape impact the Celtics?

Given that there is no way the Celtics are going to have significant cap space next summer after extending Jayson Tatum, fewer top-tier free agents being available is a good thing for Boston. Outside of Leonard and maybe Holiday/Oladipo (if they have big years) there is no one who is worthy of a max contract on these lists. That should lead to teams with significant cap space overpaying on mid-level deals for second-tier names on this list, something the Celtics won’t need to worry about doing given the fact they will only have the taxpayer mid-level exception to spend.

A quick glimpse at some teams that could have big money to spend:

Potential max cap space

Knicks (Over $60 million)
Thunder ($50-60 million)
Spurs ($50-60 million)
Pelicans ($40 million)
Pistons ($40 million if Blake opts out)
Hornets ($30-40 million)
Raptors ($20-30 million)
Mavs ($20-30 million)

Depending on what the Celtics do with their massive trade exception during the current season, the C’s will likely be in a position to offer mid-level money for an older veteran that still wants playing time and a chance to contend at a position of need. Given that the majority of the cap space teams on this list will be non-playoff teams or lower-tier teams in the postseason, they will likely be trying to spend their resources on younger talent, putting the C’s on equal footing with other contenders when it comes to spending for veterans that want to win.

The other wildcard to all these extensions now for Boston is how it impacts their plans with the $28.5 million TPE in the present. Contending teams may get more aggressive with their offers since none will be trying to keep open cap space for future summers anyway at this point. However, the Celtics will hold the advantage of not needing to salary match for a team that wants to dump money (and potential luxury tax obligations) this year thanks to the TPE if they fall out of the contending mix. That could end up being an important distinction depending on what directives certain front offices end up having as this season continues.

Either way, the Celtics can feel good about locking up so much of their cap room in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown prematurely when looking at this 2021 free agency class. Kemba Walker’s contract is still a big question mark depending on his health but if he can regain his form (a big if), he’s still a better player than the vast majority of names available next summer.