McAdam: Matt Barnes will be the Red Sox' most interesting contract tender call

By Wednesday at 8 p.m., the Red Sox will have to make a decision on whether to tender their handful of arbitration-eligible players.

Of those, what they choose in regard to Matt Barnes will be the most interesting call.

Barnes is easily the most expensive of the club's potential arbitration cases, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting that he could make $4.1 million through the process. (As with just about everything else in the game, the arbitration process has been complicated by the pandemic, with experts not entirely sure how arbitration will be impacted by the 60-game 2020 season).

The $4.1 million would hardly blow up the Red Sox' budget for 2021. As it stands, the Sox currently have eight players on the payroll who stand to make more next season.

But put in context, $4.1 million is a significant payout for a reliever who posted the highest ERA of his career since 2015, had a WHIP of 1.391 and has traditionally struggled in the role of closer. In the last two seasons, when he's gotten the most opportunities of his career, Barnes has nearly as many blown saves (12) as actual saves (13).



That's not to suggest that he's without value. In his five-plus seasons with the Red Sox, Barnes has actually performed better in high-leverage, set-up situations than he has in traditional ninth-inning appearances, with a 3.43 ERA in non-save situations compared to 4.73 in save situations.

Whether the Red Sox find somebody else on staff to handle the ninth-inning duties, or, make a trade or free agent signing to fill that responsibility, Barnes could still be an effective contributor in the eighth inning, serving as a bridge to the closer.

Still, do the Red Sox want to pay $4 million for someone to handle the eighth (or seventh) inning? Unlikely, in this era of belt-tightening.

More than likely, the Red Sox are spending the remaining time leading up to Wednesday's tender deadline to try to work out a deal with Barnes at a reduced base, as they did Tuesday morning with starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez, who missed all of 2020 with COVID-19 and a resulting case of myocarditis, agreed to a one-year deal of $8.3 million, the same figure he earned in 2020.

The pitch would likely sound something like this: "Look, we're not going to tender you a contract, but we'd like you to remain with the club. We'll give you $3 million (about what Barnes earned last year) and some performance bonuses to stay. Or you can take your chances and join the hundreds of relievers that are going to flood the market.''

Whether that pitch is successful or not remains to be seen. Barnes could bet on himself, elect for free agency and see if he can match (or top) his projected arbitration salary. But he would be doing so in an uncertain market, filled with an abundance of relievers.

Already, MLB.com lists 68 relievers as free agents. And MLB Trade Rumors suggests another 25 or more could soon join that list as non-tenders.

In every offseason, relievers face the stiffest competition, for two reasons.

First, there's the nature of the position. Performance by relievers is notoriously unpredictable -- one year, you're a bullpen mainstay, pitching effectively and consistently. The next? Thanks, perhaps, to the usage in the previous season, you show frustrating inconsistency and battle injuries.

Second, there's the sheer number from which to choose. In part because of an aversion to handing out big contracts to veterans, they often seek out low-cost alternatives. And even if their bargain-basement finds don't maintain their performance past a year or two, at least teams aren't dealing with outsized sunken investments.

Ryan Brasier -- another Red Sox reliever who could turn out to be a non-tender candidate -- is a perfect example. The Red Sox signed him based on a February tryout in 2018 after he had spent the previous season in Japan. Brasier was signed to a minor league deal, and two months into the 2018 season, became a significant weapon for the Sox in their championship season.

Now, three years later, pegged to earn $1.1 million in arbitration, Brasier risks being non-tendered, too. Or, at the very least, facing the prospect of agreeing to a lesser offer before Wednesday at 8 p.m.