McAdam: Could the Red Sox pry Blake Snell loose from the Rays?

The Red Sox -- as you may have noticed -- desperately need starting pitching. And it just so happens that a very good starting pitcher -- in his prime and under control for the next three seasons -- has recently been made available via trade, according to MLB.com.

The Tampa Bay Rays have signaled that, for the right offer of course, they would consider dealing Blake Snell. Snell, who will soon turn 28, is two years removed from winning the Cy Young Award. This past year, he was 4-2, 3.24 for the A.L. East champion Rays. In six postseason starts, he was 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA, topped by his magnificent outing in Game 6 of the World Series, when he limited the Dodgers to just two hits and a run before being infamously lifted by manager Kevin Cash.

Snell is signed for three more seasons at $39 million -- a more-than-reasonable expenditure for a pitcher of his status.

But these being the Rays, they're always open to moving salary and starting over. So for the right offer, they'd be willing to swap Snell. After all, in the past, the Rays have traded David Price and James Shields as they neared free agency.

Snell, with three more years of control, isn't nearly as close to free agency as Price and Shields were, but the pandemic and resulting economic uncertainty may force the Rays' hand here. Already, the budget-conscious Rays have passed on a $15 million option for Charlie Morton and designated outfielder Hunter Renfroe for assignment in payroll-cutting moves.

And it may be that Snell's value will never be higher. Three years is a lot of control -- for comparison's sake, Chris Sale had three years of control when the Red Sox traded for him in December of 2016.

As a division rival, the Red Sox would likely have to pay an extra premium on a deal for Snell -- the cost of the Rays having to see Snell as many as a half dozen times per season for the next three years.

Given all that, would a trade for Snell make sense for the Red Sox?



Economically, the answer is an unequivocal "yes.'' The chance to acquire a front-of-the-rotation starter for an AAV of $13 million is the essence of a no-brainer. Think of it this way: If Snell were to join the Red Sox, he'd earn $11 million less than Nathan Eovaldi would over the next two seasons.

A bigger question might be: do the Red Sox have enough to satisfy the Rays? Their farm system may be improving, but it's nowhere near a Top 10 system -- the way it was when the Sox backed up the truck to pry Sale loose from the White Sox. According to most experts, the Red Sox don't have a single prospect ranked in the Top 30 in baseball, which could prove problematic.

Boston could have a difficult time if it got in a bidding war with another organization boasting a far deeper system, like Seattle.

Then there's the matter of timing. Would this be a good time to make a deal for an established starter?

In one sense, it's always a good time to upgrade a rotation. There isn't a team in the game that, in a vacuum, wouldn't want to add someone like Snell. For the Red Sox, who will start the season without Sale (likely out until June as he recovers from Tommy John surgery) and with the uncertainty facing Eduardo Rodriguez (COVID-19, myocarditis; likely limited in his workload after missing all of last season), Eovaldi is the lone proven major league starter on the roster. And, let's face it, Eovaldi has not exactly been Mr. Durable.

But as the Red Sox slowly build up their prospect inventory again, they would face the knowledge that obtaining Snell would cost them at least two of their best minor leaguers. Would Snell be worth sacrificing, say, Triston Casas and Jay Groome? And, potentially, more?

Remember, when the Sox acquired Sale, it cost them Yoan Moncada, who was regarded by some as the top prospect in the game, and starter Michael Kopech. Even if Snell isn't quite in Sale's league, it would surely require them to give up their best overall prospect (Casas) and much more.

It's likely the Rays would also insist on the inclusion of a top starting pitching prospect and while Groome has tumbled out of most Top 100 prospects list in the wake of his 2017 Tommy John surgery, he's still regarded as the Red Sox pitcher with the highest ceiling.

And still, the Red Sox would likely be required to add more to a package -- perhaps a close-to-ready young major leaguer like Bobby Dalbec.

Would it be worth it? The view here is yes.

Getting someone the caliber of Snell would provide the rotation with some stability for the next few years. Teamed with Sale, Eovaldi, it would give the Red Sox a strong foundation, and help guard against the potential for losing Rodriguez to free agency after next season.

It would also buy time for the Sox to further develop their remaining starting pitching prospects: Connor Seabold, Bryan Mata, Noah Song and the more advanced Tanner Houck.

The deal for Sale paid off with a 2018 World Series win and two division championships. It may still provide dividends once Sale is fully recovered.

What's more, obtaining someone of Snell's stature would provide the Sox with relevance -- a not insignificant consideration for a team looking to reclaim a turned-off fan base.