NFL Notebook: Don't pencil in the Ravens for an AFC playoff spot just yet; Onwenu gets big test vs. Watt

For much of the season, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Baltimore Ravens, even if they didn't catch the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, would have a stranglehold on the first AFC Wild-Card.

Somebody around here might have even picked the Ravens to go 15-1 and win the Super Bowl. IDIOT. PEOPLE PAY TO READ YOUR STUFF?

And for much of the season, that was the case, as Baltimore started 6-2 with its only losses coming to the Chiefs and Steelers. No harm there. Get 'em back in the playoffs.

But what the Ravens (6-3) have put on film recently — especially in their 23-17 loss to the Patriots — leads me to feel that things aren't right in Charm City and I wouldn't go sending them a postseason invite quite yet.

I mean, as of right now, the Ravens are the seventh and last wild-card team in the AFC. And now, they have to take on the Titans (6-3) and Steelers (9-0) in back to back weeks. The Ravens are staring a 6-5 record right in the face, which would even throw the Patriots back in the mix.

But there are three even larger issues for them, that a soft close to the season (Dallas, Jacksonville, Giants, Bengals) might not be able to fix — but hot damn, it's a good season to have the NFC East and AFC South on your schedule (ugh, sometimes I hate the league's unbalanced schedule).

1. Two more losses would drop the Ravens to 4-5 in the conference and leave them zero room for error.

The whole reason why the Ravens are in the No. 7 slot: at 4-3 in the conference, they are one game behind the Raiders and Dolphins in the AFC loss column. Two more losses would drop them behind the Browns, Titans, Patriots and even the Broncos, if those teams hold pace.

The Ravens would basically have to win out in the AFC to have a real chance at the postseason because if there is a multi-team tie for a wild-card spot, the most important tiebreaker is usually conference record.

Five AFC losses seem to be a magic number because no team since the 2014 Ravens has taken a wild-card spot with a 6-6 AFC record.

So if the Ravens slip up against the Browns and/or Bengals in the final four games, it could be Goodnight for the Inner Harbor in a season filled with such promise.

2. A three-game losing streak may cause this team to implode.

This was probably my biggest takeaway from the Ravens' loss to the Patriots: not only do they lack mental toughness, but they have a potentially volatile mix that might not react well if they go on a losing streak, something they endured just once in Lamar Jackson's 31 starts (Weeks 3 and 4 last season, before reeling off 12-straight wins to finish the season). Jackson has yet to deal with a three-game losing streak, something that would occur if the Ravens fall to the Titans and Steelers. And it would feel worse, with losses in four of five games.

I wouldn't count out an implosion with this team.

Jackson already started to voice concerns about the offense on the Dan Patrick Show after one loss to the Steelers. What do you think he's doing to do if the offense continues to look subpar in a three-game losing streak? Jackson's never been one to take the blame for what's gone on — he said the Ravens lost to the Titans last year in the playoffs because they took them lightly, not his terrible performance (or John Harbaugh's poor game management) — so I don't expect that to change. If I were offensive coordinator Greg Roman, I'd prepare for more heat-seeking missiles from his quarterback if things don't turnaround quickly.

I'm not sure they will. Yes, the Titans are porous on defense, but Bill Belichick just provided the entire league (mostly thanks to Kyle Shanahan exposing the Patriots' deficiencies in the 49ers' blowout win) with a plan (I refuse to use the term blueprint) to make Jackson and the Ravens fight in a phone booth, where their inferior offensive line can be exposed. You would think Mike Vrabel would have learned something from that, and the Ravens have been slow to adjust.

But not only do you have Jackson a bit disgruntled, but Hollywood Brown looks a bit fed up as well. The second-year receiver carries himself like a diva on the field — he raised his hand up a few times on the coaches film when he was clearly covered, and can often be seen in Jackson's ears after plays saying, "I was open." It's an issue, and I thought it might have just been in this game until I heard NBC analyst Chris Simms also notice it on his podcast:

This is a problem, and it could become a big one. Brown had seven passes thrown his way on Sunday night and finished with just two catches for 13 yards. This is a trend. In the first six weeks of the season, Brown averaged more than 62 receiving yards per game. In the past three games, Brown has totaled just 55 yards on six catches. He appears to be the type of player who has people in his ear telling him, "You need to get yours." If that's true, Brown could be an attitude problem that could spread to other places on the offensive side of the locker room.

The defensive side also has issues, with the biggest being cornerback Marcus Peters. His lack of commitment to the scheme and putting his body on the line (he has two more years left on his deal, wonderful) was evident coming into this one that I made it a point to single him out as someone to take advantage of coming into this matchup:

I would go after LCB Marcus Peters all night, both with the run and pass. His focus wanes and he can be lazy at the point of attack against the run.

The Patriots did just that, and Peters repeatedly refused to stick his nose in — and started throwing temper tantrums.

And you wonder why Peters is on his third team in four years.

Put Jackson, Brown and Peters together on a team with John Harbaugh, who also doesn't love criticism, and you have a potentially explosive crew in Baltimore.

Ravens GM Eric DeCosta, a Taunton native, has deservedly received praise for the team he has built since Ozzie Newsome retired. Their recent record speaks to the talent he has placed on this team, especially in the draft. There's no denying that.

But while Belichick might be criticized — also deservedly — for his recent string of personnel moves that have left the Patriots short on talent compared to other teams, the coach does almost always get it right when it comes to developing a great team culture that starts with mentally-tough players. The Patriots are usually better than the sum of its parts. Rarely can you say the same about the Ravens.

3. Jackson and the Ravens are front-runners.

People have started to wake up to the fact that Jackson and the Ravens have a hard time coming back in this game. They are now 0-6 in games where Jackson has trailed by 10 points. That speaks not only to how the offense is constructed and Jackson's lack of polish in the passing game when running is not an option, but also to Jackson's shortcomings as well.

In 31 starts, Jackson has just three game-winning drives and just one fourth-quarter comeback. The Ravens have only lost six times in his starts (80.6 winning percentage) so the opportunities haven't been there. But when it comes to a tough spot against the better teams, I would want to follow a player who has shown me more when the pressure is on.

Jackson has a whole lot to prove in this regard — even to his teammates — and so do the Ravens down the stretch.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Michael Onwenu is expected to get the biggest test of his NFL career when he sees a lot of J.J. Watt at left end for the Texans on Sunday. Watt will hop around on third down, but he plays mostly on the left side. The Patriots have rarely had much trouble with Watt in the past because they either run at him with double teams, or stayed away from him. Teams are also letting him run up field where he essentially takes himself out of plays.

2. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jermaine Elumunor get a series at some point as he returns from injury. It's a competitive situation there — it doesn't Eluemunor will be given his job back — but the impressive sixth-round rookie is expected to hang on, although he has struggled more in recent weeks.

3. The Patriots signed LB Terez Hall to the 53-man roster from the practice squad, activated RB Sony Michel, activated WR Donte Moncrief to the 53-man roster from the practice squad, and signed DL Akeem Spence to the practice squad. To make room for Michel and Moncrief, the Patriots released OL Hjalte Froholdt and DL Derek Rivers.

Although both could back to the practice squad, the releases are another blow to Belichick's recent drafts. Rivers was the team's top selection in the 2017 draft (third round, 83rd overall) and could never stay healthy. Froholdt was a 2019 fourth-rounder (118th overall) and, after a disastrous first training camp, appeared to be making progress. He was quickly passed by rookie sixth-rounders Onwenu and Justin Herron, and apparently, the team has more faith in veteran center James Ferentz. That's a rough statement.

4a. You have to love the Chase Winovich Experience — it's a thrill ride rarely seen in Foxboro. Consider these tidbits from his Friday WebEx with reporters:

• Might have slipped admitting he's still practicing off the ball: "The coaches are really helping obviously to bridge that gap quickly ... (pause) ... when we’ve obviously practiced that, sorry, I should elaborate on that.


• Made it clear he was referring to New England's football history and not overall history in a comment.


• Admitted he usually answers every "what do you think of this player" with "he's a great player."


• Gave us this quote, when asked about Deshaun Watson never quitting on a play. "My motor’s always high, I would say. I don’t really take too many plays off I’d say, there’s not too many times where I’m like, ‘Yeah, I was dogging it on that one.’"


• Hit all the cliches on defending Watson: "Going to have to play hard, going to have to play through the whistle and play good, fundamental football and assignment-sound … all the basic techniques and fundamentals and daily disciplines that we practice here in New England."


• Said Rob Ninkovich slid into his Instagram DMs after the draft and he's been a big help. "... been in my shoes and literally in that number … 50 … I don’t have to explain that to you though."


• Sweet potato casserole is his favorite Thanksgiving dish. "Gotta have the marshmallows, man. That’s what makes it."