Why the odds of Gordon Hayward picking up his player option just went up

Gordon Hayward rumblings have been loud and consistent in NBA circles in recent weeks. They began a week ago on the Lowe Post Podcast when Zach Lowe spoke about some speculation that Hayward might not be on the Celtics next year.

“There’s some buzz out there. And I can’t figure out what the buzz means,” Lowe said. “The buzz that I’m hearing is like the smoke, the smoke indicating that something is happening. I’m not sure what’s up, but I don’t think it’s a lock that Gordon Hayward is on the Celtics next year.”

The chatter continued earlier this week on the Bill Simmons Podcast when Ryen Russillo was more direct about the Hayward rumblings.

“I’ve heard Gordon Hayward does want out, but I don’t know if he’s gonna get the money. He’s not opting out of that huge number unless he knows he’s getting the deal,” Russillo said.

The money Russillo is referring to of course is a $34.1 million player option that Hayward has due to him next season in the final year of his four-year max contract with Boston. To put it in proper perspective, that $34.1 million number is set to be the 15th highest salary in the NBA entering next season. With no player in the NBA besides Anthony Davis expected to opt out of a player option that’s worth more than $10 million next season, Hayward turning down that kind of cash would be shocking unless he has secured the bag elsewhere over the long-term or really doesn’t want to stay in Boston.

In recent weeks, there has been talk of an x-factor, which may have made the case for opting out for Hayward a little easier from a financial standpoint. The idea of a high-escrow percentage (salary withholding) for NBA players during the 2020-21 season has loomed large as a possibility in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic that was expected to wipe out fan revenue for teams for the entire season. Since the owners and players have a 51-49 split of Basketball Related Income (BRI), normally an escrow is held on players checks (10 percent) during the course of a season and the players get that money back (and sometimes more) once official calculations are made on the NBA BRI earnings by the end of the league year.

That escrow number was expected to rise as high as 25-to-30 percent for next season by some estimates in order to balance out the league’s decline in revenues from previous seasons. If that escrow number ended up being as high as 30 percent, Hayward would lose out on $10.2 million of his $34.1 million salary for next season, perhaps giving him some incentive to opt-out and secure a long-term deal where he can make up some of that money on that tail end of the contract when the escrow is no longer as high.

For instance, if Hayward opted out and signed a four-year extension worth $100 million, he would only be missing out on 30 percent of $25 million ($7.5 million) in 2020-21 but would have with the added security of a long-term contract paid in full ($75 million) rather than missing out on 30 percent of $34 million ($10.2 million) in 2020-21 with no long-term security to help make up for lost earnings locked in.

That possible advantage or incentive to opt for a long-term deal has now faded away amid the expected terms of the NBA’s adjusted CBA deal with the NBPA. Instead of a high escrow (30-40 percent) for one year, the two sides have agreed to spread the escrow at a reduced number over the next three seasons, with 18 percent withholding each year being the likely number according to Shams Charania of Stadium.

This matters in a notable way for Hayward since there is no longer any major financial incentive to opt for a long-term deal beyond just the added security. Hayward will have to take the financial hit evenly for his salary the next three years just like any other player, which will make turning down the $34.1 million this year from Boston even more unlikely to happen without a big deal waiting for him elsewhere.

Only 46 players in NBA history have made more money ($148.3 million) than Hayward in their NBA careers. By the end of 2021, that number will rise to $182.4 million, putting Hayward in the top-30 earners in NBA history if the 30-year-old opts into his $34.1 million player option, so it is fair to wonder that if he truly wants out of Boston, whether he’s willing to sacrifice some big cash for a bigger role on a mediocre team.

All of this buzz about Hayward’s future in recent weeks does make me wonder whether it’s more of a smoke screen than anything else from Hayward’s agent Mark Bartelstein. In order to hold any kind of leverage over the Celtics in extension negotiations or to at least present the possibility of an opt-out (which would leave the Celtics unhappy with no compensation), he has to at least create the possibility that someone out there is willing to pay Hayward close to market value.

If the Celtics buy in on that possibility, Bartelstein could try to use that leverage to help find an acceptable trade or sign-and-trade for Hayward that lands him in a preferred location and brings back the C’s some kind of asset. Otherwise, Hayward would have no say on where he’s dealt to or if he’s even dealt at all if he wants to also secure that $34 million salary.

The Celtics may simply be willing to call Bartelstein’s bluff here though. They see a free agent market with just six teams with serious cap room and the majority of those are unlikely to be suitors for Hayward at market place. If the Hawks or Knicks trade for a big contract at the draft or beforehand, their cap space disappears and the same goes for any threat that Hayward would be able to secure a fair market deal elsewhere (beyond a sign-and-trade with the C’s cooperation).

If the money truly matters to Hayward first and foremost, the odds of him opting in went up again with this latest development in the escrow. As the game of posturing continues, take note of the silence from the Celtics end of things. Hayward has to make the first move but the Celtics will be in the driver’s seat if he takes the cash. From there, it will be up to the C’s whether they want to make one more run with the former All-Star or cash out for a (likely) inferior trade return.