The 2020 NBA Draft is less than three weeks away and the Celtics are expected to be one of the busiest teams in the league on draft night with more first-round picks (three) than any other franchise. One of the more popular questions we have received here at BSJ is what type of trades will be available for Boston to make at draft night with their surplus of selections, whether it's moving up, moving down or moving out of a draft for a future selection or veteran. We've already explored some potential trading partners in the present for Boston, but to get a better sense of what type of deals and value might be on the table on November 18th, let's take a second look at notable draft deals from 2019 (one of the busier nights in recent draft history) and what teams ended up helping or hurting themselves from specific moves.
Hawks trade No. 8 (Jaxson Hayes), No. 17 (Nickel Alexander-Walker), No. 35 (Marcos Louzada Silva) to the Pelicans for No. 4 (DeAndre Hunter), No. 57 (Jordan Bone) and Solomon Hill
Analysis: Atlanta had a better stash of picks to offer last year to get them up to No. 4 overall but this is the kind of deal that the Celtics could try to pull off with all three of their first-round picks to get up into the No. 7-10 range in 2020. Hunter looks like the best player of the bunch at No. 4 as a wing that showed solid promise on a very young Hawks team. Hayes was a dynamic rim-runner for the Pelicans after year one but he has a long way to go on the defensive end. The same goes for Alexander-Walker, who really struggled with his shooting (36.8 percent) in year one as well. Silva was a draft-and-stash so the jury is still out on him for another year or two. Hunter didn’t look to have a ton of upside offensively but this is certainly not a deal the Hawks are regretting after a full season.
Winner one year later: Hawks but too early to tell for the long-term
Suns trade No. 6 (Jarrett Culver) to the Timberwolves for No. 11 (Cam Johnson) and Dario Saric
Analysis: This was a swap that was largely panned for Minnesota on draft day, especially after they took a sharpshooter (Johnson) at No. 11 that wasn’t projected to be taken until far later in the first round by most draft analysts. However, Johnson looked like a far better player than Culver in year one, providing a reliable 3-point shooting stroke (39 percent) off of the Suns' bench, which helped to lead to a bigger role during the Suns undefeated run in the Orlando bubble. On top of that, Phoenix got a starter-level player in Saric on the final year of his rookie deal who fit in nicely in the desert as a secondary scorer. Meanwhile, Culver’s rookie season in Minnesota was nothing short of a disaster. He shot under 30 percent from 3 and an ugly 46(!) percent from the FT line, which already makes him look like an overpaid player in the second year of his rookie deal. At age 21, Culver still has plenty of time to grow but the Suns clearly got the better bang for their buck in this deal.
Winner one year later: Suns
Suns trade T.J. Warren and No. 32 (KZ Okpala) to the Pacers for cash
Analysis: This was a surprising salary dump by Phoenix that opened up roughly $12 million of additional cap space that largely went to Ricky Rubio. Warren’s deal wasn’t necessarily viewed as a bad contract when it was moved and that’s certainly not the case after the 2019-20 season when he averaged a career-high 19.8 ppg while shooting 40.3 percent from 3-point range. He still is largely a one-way player, but the fact that the Pacers got an extra draft pick for taking him on makes this an easy win for the franchise. It also speaks to the challenge of getting rid of a mid-sized long-term contract, even if it’s for a decent player. There will be plenty of teams looking to dump salary for next season at the draft (including the Celtics) to get rid of a few unneeded contracts and only a handful of teams that could serve as dumping grounds. If this price was any indication, it’s going to be expensive for teams to do so with subpar players.
Winner one year later: Pacers
Celtics trade No. 20 (Matisse Thybulle) to the 76ers for No. 24 (Ty Jerome) and No. 33 (Carsen Edwards)
Analysis: It’s hard to fully analyze this trade just yet given the No. 24 overall selection was dealt again by the Celtics on draft night for a 2020 first-round selection (see: next trade). However, there’s no denying that Edwards struggled mightily in year one with the lowest shooting percentage in his draft class for any rookie that played over 150 minutes. Meanwhile, Thybulle was a useful player for the Sixers almost immediately out of the gate as a defensive-minded wing that could knock down 3s (35.7 percent) at a better clip than most expected. His offensive limitations became more glaring in the postseason, but his long-term projection as a defensive weapon makes him worth the price paid for the Sixers in this swap.
Winner one year later: Sixers
Celtics trade No. 24 (Ty Jerome) and Aron Baynes to the Suns for the Bucks’ 2020 first round pick (No. 30)
Analysis: This trade was influenced by a desire to open up max salary cap room for Kemba Walker from Boston’s standpoint but it’s hard to deny that the team may have been better off finding an alternative route to clear that cap space instead of dumping their one-time starting center. Baynes ended up having a career year in Phoenix, averaging 11.5 ppg while shooting 35 percent from 3-point range. Injuries were an issue in the second half of the year (and also dealt with a bout of COVID-19 that kept him sidelined in Orlando) but his expanded 3-point shooting (four attempts per game) made him a bigger offensive asset than he had ever been in his career. The C’s obviously didn't miss out on Ty Jerome but they would have been better off creating the cap space for Walker via other means and keeping Baynes around. As the Celtics try to maximize their payroll flexibility in 2020, moving Enes Kanter in a similar deal to this one could be a preferred option, with the hope his absence doesn’t come back to bite them like Baynes’ did.
Winner one year later: Suns
Thunder trade No. 21 (Brandon Clarke) to Grizzlies for No. 23 (Darius Bazley) and a 2024 second round pick
Analysis: Pretty simple one here. Both guys are solid power forwards, but Clarke was a top-5 player in this draft class during his rookie year, leading his entire draft class in win shares per 48 minutes thanks to his terrific offensive production. Clarke is nearly four years older than Bazley, so him looking better in year one is no surprise, but finding a steady rotation bench player at this point of the draft who is ready to contribute has to be considered a win. Bazley may eventually get there if he can improve his efficiency but Clarke is already that guy for the Grizzlies in year one. With expanded opportunities (he only played 22 minutes per game) Clarke could be a lot more but Memphis can feel good about paying such a small price to move up for what looks to be a big upgrade. The C’s have plenty of their own draft ammo to move up (something they have rarely done during the Ainge era) but when it comes to finding proper fits, they can’t be afraid to spend some capital.
Winner one year later: Grizzlies
Nets trade No. 27 (Mfiondu Kabengele) to the Clippers for 2020 first-round pick (via Philadelphia) and No. 56 (Jaylen Hands)
Analysis: This is exhibit A why trading out of the first round for a future selection is generally not a bad idea. The Clippers added some big man depth at No. 27 in Kabengele on a win-now team, but the center only played 64 minutes over 12 games as he failed to play his way into a deep Clippers rotation. Brooklyn meanwhile lucked out with the Sixers underachieving during the 2019-20 season, so their 2020 first-round pick from the Clippers will end up at No. 19 overall, giving them a valuable trade chip in the middle of the first round later this month. It’s too early to call Kabengele a bust, but I like the odds of the No. 19 pick this year turning into something more productive than the former FSU center. The Celtics will probably try to maximize their three first-round draft picks for the present, but if anyone is offering them an unprotected first for one of their late ones (No. 26, No. 30) they should probably bite on their offer to see if they can strike the same kind of luck as the Nets did here.
Winner one year later: Nets
Pistons trade No. 30 (Kevin Porter Jr.) to Cavs for four future second-round picks and cash
Analysis: A closer look at this deal shows that it’s actually closer to three second-round picks, as the cost to move up to No. 30 since the fourth second-round included by Cleveland was top-55 protected (making it essentially worthless). There were no high-value second-round picks included in this deal since the other second-round picks given up by the Cavs all came from playoff teams (Portland, Utah) so this was really a way for the Pistons to just boost their volume of pick selections when they didn’t see a guy they liked in this spot. Porter Jr. struggled early in his rookie year but ended up averaging 10.0 ppg by the end of the season and showed some promise as one of the younger players in the draft. Assuming all of those second-round picks end up in the 40s or lower for the Pistons, this wasn’t a bad price for Cleveland to pay. The Celtics should have plenty of options with their No. 30 overall selection in this year’s draft but they should be able to do far better than move it for a host of middle of the road second-round picks.
Winner one year later: Cavs
NBA News and Notes
— The NBA and NBPA extended their deadline for negotiating changes to the current CBA until Nov. 6 on Friday night, setting the stage for a busy week of talks between the two sides as they attempt to come to terms on modifications for the 2020-21 season. Multiple reports have indicated pushback from many players about the idea of a Dec. 22 start to the year, but with Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com reporting losses could extend from $500 million to $1 billion with a mid-January start compared to December, it’s only a matter of time before the players association caves on the issue. The majority of the league hasn’t played since early September and given how substantial players losses are already looking with the no fan revenue expected this season, I don’t think the low and middle-class player earnings in the NBA are going to be happy to give up a bigger chunk of their paycheck for just a few extra weeks of rest. Look for an agreement in the next few days as the players attempt to posture to give themselves more concessions in negotiations (assuming they go along with the Christmas start).
—The NBA is allowing teams to open facilities for group workouts now, opening the door for individual workouts, group practices and scrimmages with up to 10 players. Individual players will have be tested every day for COVID-19 in order to take part in the workouts, according to ESPN.
—Nice to see Stephen Silas (son of Paul Silas) get his first chance at a head coaching gig in Houston as a replacement for Mike D’Antoni. Silas spent last year in Dallas but worked for several years as an assistant in Houston and has a preexisting relationship with a lot of core pieces there. With D’Antoni and Daryl Morey out of the picture, it will be interesting to see if maintains their commitment to small-ball basketball. Oklahoma City is now the only team in the NBA without a head coach.
—One of the few teams with serious cap room this offseason are the Knicks. Ian Begley of SNY reports that they will be in the market as a salary dumping ground for teams once free agency opens in an attempt to accumulate more picks or young players. There should be a competitive market for this room with the latest luxury tax projections coming in far lower ($132 million) than originally anticipated for next season, which should result in some teams getting desperate to avoid stiff tax penalties.