It should come as little surprise that Jake DeBrusk's pending contract stands as one of the last dominos yet to fall in what has been an eventful offseason for the Bruins.
Even before COVID-19 and the subsequent squeeze on the NHL's revenue streams flipped the league's offseason market on its head, negotiations between player and team when it came to DeBrusk's next payyday were expected to be far from succinct — given the wide variance in both term and average annual value (AAV).
When it comes to the baseline numbers, the 24-year-old winger has more than deserved a bump up in the pay scale from the $832,500 in total salary he earned in 2019-20. Those trademark cold spells notwithstanding, the production is still there when it comes to DeBrusk staking his claim as a legitimate top-six forward — with the gregarious winger lighting the lamp 62 times in 203 career games with Boston.
Had it not been for various ailments robbing him of 14 games during the 2018-19 season, DeBrusk (27 goals) very well could have been just the 12th Bruin under the age of 23 to tally 30+ goals in season — joining some pretty elite company in Dit Clapper, Bobby Orr, Barry Pederson, Tom Fergus, Cam Neely, Bryan Smolinski, Jason Allison, Joe Thornton, Patrice Bergeron, Phil Kessel and David Pastrnak.
A mid-season halt due to the pandemic prevented DeBrusk (19 goals, 35 points in 65 games) from surpassing the 20-goal mark in 2019-20, although Boston's expectations had him more in line for another potential 30-goal campaign, or so they hoped. In what has been a recurring trend for the energetic DeBrusk, prolonged stretches of ineffective play have so far thwarted his chances of taking another major step forward in his young career.
Through the first seven games of the 2019-20 season, DeBrusk only managed to secure one assist before finally lighting the lamp against Toronto on Oct. 19, 2019. Prior to the season coming to a halt in March, DeBrusk only accrued one point (a goal vs. Tampa Bay on March 3) over his final 14 games — with his recent slide even prompting Bruce Cassidy to slot DeBrusk out of the top-six unit and down with Charlie Coyle during Boston’s last regular-season matchup on March 10 against Philly.
Still, even with the warts in his game, DeBrusk is still a 24-year-old winger boasting plenty of speed, a set of silky mitts and a stat line that averages out to 20 goals scored per season in his time up in the NHL ranks.
In other words, the guy is still going to get paid this fall.
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"I’m a younger player and this is my first deal after my entry level so obviously these years are kind of years that shape you as a pro and help you understand what it takes to win and what can happen in the business side of things," DeBrusk said of his contract and what he can give Boston when asked back in September. "So I feel confident in my play, I guess I feel confident in how I can help this team, I know what kind of player I can be. And this year I don't think it could be replicated to be honest with you.
"I mean for how the common perception is, I'm still one goal away from 20 goals and that's one thing I looked at you know once the first pause happened was I felt like I was completely different than what I guess that said. It's not easy to do in this league but I definitely have a lot better and I haven't even really tuned into that yet, which is frustrating, but I think that these learning experiences from my struggles have really helped me or will help me as a pro when I continue on here."
Even in the stagnant bear market that the Bruins and the NHL currently find themselves in, DeBrusk will still command a solid portion of the remaining $6.6 million in available cap space that the Original Six franchise currently holds this offseason.
But just how sizable will DeBrusk's payout actually be, especially in this market?
Let's take a look at some comparables:
Aiming high — but not in this market:
Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks — 3 years, $17.625 million ($5.875 million AAV)
Travis Konecny, Philadelphia Flyers — 6 years, $33 million ($5.5 million AAV)
Regardless of the term that is agreed to on DeBrusk's next contract (a long-term deal will likely guarantee a higher AAV over a "bridge" agreement) it would seem as though even the high estimates of what DeBrusk should receive from Boston is not going to be in the same ballpark as what both Boeser and Konecny (fellow 2015 first-round picks) received once their entry-level deals expired.
Ultimately, for as much as DeBrusk is knocked for his hot/cold play, the gap between these three skaters (all of whom have yet to reach the 30-goal threshold quite yet) is not as large as it might seem.
While Boeser's fantastic shot and the cast of uber-skilled talent around him up in Vancouver should all but guarantee (health permitting) multiple 30-goal seasons in his future, DeBrusk was actually the steadier scorer between the two last season — holding a 1.09 goals scored per 60 minutes rate against Boeser's mark of 0.9.
DeBrusk, who also fared better on the power play when compared to Boeser (somewhat remarkable — given DeBrusk's role on Boston's PP1), is also neck and neck in a number of 5v5 categories with the Canucks winger, including high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (Boeser's 3.7 edges DeBrusk's 3.66). Granted, Boeser is overall the better playmaker at 5v5, but DeBrusk is no slouch in this head-to-head matchup.
Still, even though the case can be made that DeBrusk should follow in the footsteps of Boeser/Konecny and command $5 million or more per year on his new deal, such a payout just doesn't seem feasible during an offseason in which a number of proven, top-six forwards have been forced to sign "prove-it" contracts, ink deals for pennies on the dollar or, like Mike Hoffman, remain floating around in a still-sizable pool of UFA talent — all still searching for a landing spot.
You could make the case that if all three of DeBrusk, Boeser and Konecny were in the same boat as RFAs this fall, they'd all be clumped together in the same pay scale — which would likely be for at least a million less than what the Vancouver and Philadelphia wingers are currently cashing in right now.
Regardless of the Bruins' cap flexibility or their plans for what they're willing to offer to their RFA, it's pretty clear that DeBrusk and his party are going to have to take less than what they're hoping for to secure this deal — due in large part to economic factors beyond anyone's control.
No need to low-ball here:
Jake Virtanen, Vancouver Canucks — 2 years, $5.1 million ($2.55 million AAV)
Andrew Mangiapane, Calgary Flames — 2 years, $4.85 million ($2.425 million AAV)
Denis Gurianov, Dallas Stars — 2 years, $5.1 million ($2.55 million AAV)
Jared McCann, Pittsburgh Penguins — 2 years, $5.88 million ($2.94 million AAV)
Now, even though this market has already forced a number of forwards (UFAs and RFAs) to sign off on deals below their projected value, I don't think Boston is going to shortchange DeBrusk here with a bridge deal that pays out to under $3 million in AAV.
While DeBrusk's baseline stats might be pretty close to Virtanen — and Gurianov had a breakout showing in his first Stanley Cup run with Dallas up in the Edmonton bubble — none of these forwards have hit the offensive *peak* of DeBrusk quite yet (27 goals), and, fair to say, there's a lot more room to grow in that department for the B's forward.
When you chart DeBrusk's production over three full seasons in the NHL and factor in his offensive ceiling, perhaps only a wild card like Gurianov (having only played one full season with Dallas) could come close in this pool when it comes to replicating the scoring punch that DeBrusk should provide Boston over the span of a new contract.
So what's the sweet spot?
My guess? A two-year, "bridge" contract with an AAV ranging between $3.75 million and $4.25 million.
While DeBrusk and his camp are likely aiming for more money here (perhaps in line with the $4.75 million AAV that Alex Tuch is earning with Vegas), this might be the best way to keep all parties *somewhat satisfied* in this challenging fiscal climate.
By signing a short-term deal, DeBrusk will be allowed to enter (a hopefully rebounded) market at 26 years old, with potentially a 30-goal season to help boost his value for a major pay raise.
And, all things considered, this is still a sizable bump in salary for DeBrusk, one that is both well-deserved and doesn't put the B's in a major bind on the financial front — with around $2.5 million left in available cap room.
For as much as DeBrusk's inconsistent play might prompt fans to pull their hair out, especially come the postseason — the young winger should still be viewed as a key piece for this club moving forward. Even with these struggles, DeBrusk still managed to rank second on the Bruins in 5v5 expected goals per 60 minutes (0.75 - behind only David Pastrnak's 0.86) and third in 5v5 individual scoring chances per 60 minutes (11.85) last season.
"I think his upside is tremendous," David Krejci said of DeBrusk. "I think he can take games over. He had that one amazing game against Carolina, he scored two goals I think in the third period. Once he gets going, he’s pretty gifted. He’s got great speed and he can finish on breakaways, which not many people have that. He just has to find a way to be more consistent. Obviously, it’s not just him, it’s his linemates and his teammates. But I think that’s the biggest thing for him, he just has to find a way to be more consistent. If he does that, he’s going to be a pretty dangerous player in this league every night."
As polarizing as he can be at times, the Bruins still believe that DeBrusk has the makings of a 30-goal scorer in this league. DeBrusk and his camp certainly agree. But it might take a bit longer for him to be paid as such.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick & Jason Paul.