Everyone can see that Cam Newton and the Patriots' offense is scuffling right now. For whatever reason — and it's NOT some Covid fog since, you know, he never had any symptoms — Newton has regressed in each of his last three starts from the promising start against the Dolphins and Seahawks.
There's no other way to say it: Newton was atrocious again in the first half against the 49ers. His decision-making was poor, he was late making his reads, accuracy was an issue — and that was against a Cover 3 scheme that was similar to the Seahawks.
But at least the Patriots strung several successful plays together on the two drives to start the second half, mostly avoiding their grenade offense and — can you believe it? — actually holding onto the ball.
Yes, they ended in poor plays — Michael Onwenu and Newton appeared to be at fault on a first-down sack at the 49ers' 21-yard line that short-circuited the first drive, and Newton was way too slow coming to Julian Edelman on the checkdown that led to his third and final interception — but at least there was progress.
And with more practice time and a very familiar opponent coming up in the Bills and Sean McDermott (Newton's defensive coordinator for six years in Carolina) — the Raiders, Broncos and 49ers were all unfamiliar and those games can be tough to get a handle on — perhaps the Patriots can build on that and their running game against a bad Bills defense.
But the Patriots' own defense?
Bill Belichick's favored sons were completely exposed by Kyle Shanahan to the point that other teams should be expected to follow the plan that finally pummeled New England's biggest weakness:
Their lack of size and speed in the front seven.
This Patriots team needs to play a very specific way to play its best, and it's all predicated on getting the opponent to throw into the Patriots' secondary. They need to run the ball on offense to control the clock, and get a lead. Defensively, they need to make the opponent think they need to throw the ball. Hopefully the Patriots' standout secondary can create some turnovers to give the offense more chances and a chance to run more clock.
The Patriots' offense has not been very successful since the opener at getting a lead and grinding the clock. So Belichick — against everyone but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs — tries to induce the opponent into throw the ball by throwing numbers into the box. Most schemes indicate that if there are X players in the box, then the QB is supposed to check to a pass. That's what Belichick wants, so he keeps putting his Lollipop Guild (multiple safeties) in the box in place of linebackers.
Shanahan, who may be the best run-game coordinator in the league today, is way too smart for that. He doesn't care about numbers, he cares about size in the box. And if you're going to put Adrian Phillips, Terrence Brooks and Devin McCourty at linebacker, and Chase Winovich or Anfernee Jennings against George Kittle, Shanahan is still going to run the ball no matter what the numbers are.
And he did that repeatedly on Sunday. Shanahan ran the ball (including those shovel passes) all over the Patriots — wide, inside, outside ... about 18 different ways — that exposed both their lack of size up front and in the box, and also their lack of speed when the Patriots did put two linebackers on the field. It was a masterclass by Shanahan, the Nuovo Belichick.
The 49ers' drive before halftime was one of the worst for a Patriots defense in some time:
- Anfernee Jennings doesn't get outside leverage on a little swing pass to JaMycal Hasty and it goes for 16 yards.
- Hasty gains 20 yards on the next play on a toss when Jennings doesn't sense the crack, Phillips is snuffed out by Trent Williams (just play safeties at linebacker they said!), and Stephon Gilmore is erased easily by Kyle Juszczyk.
- Deebo Samuel gets an easy 13 yards — the Patriots' offense couldn't gain 13 yards if they rubbed two Buffalo nickels together — as four players are wide open for Jimmy Garoppolo to throw to.
- And the coup de grace, one of the most embarrassing Patriots defensive plays you will ever see as Jeffrey Wilson goes UNTOUCHED 16 yards off tackle for a touchdown. Deatrich Wise was completely erased, Bentley had zero clue, and Jonathan Jones playing safety didn't even touch Wilson.
