It would be one thing if his performance Sunday was a one-off.
After all, the quarterback hadn't played in three weeks, and the team barely practiced the past two. Throw in all the shuffling on the offensive line — before and during the game — and you could understand why the Patriots' offense was clunky on Sunday against the Broncos.
But it doesn't explain why the Patriots lost to the Broncos 18-12, when the defense didn't allow a touchdown.
And it didn't explain why Newton wasn't better in this game, because the main issue he had against the Broncos — not seeing the field and open receivers well enough — was the same in his last start against the Raiders.
Advanced analytics backed this up. For the second game in a row, Newton's completion percentage was worse than his expected completion percentage from NextGenStats (Completion Probability: The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.)
Vegas was a one-off. With two, we might have a problem.
Where were the issues and what can be done about them?
First quarter
2ND & 9 AT DEN 39(04:25)
(Shotgun) C. Newton sacked at DEN 48 for -9 yards (A. Chickillo). NE-J. Eluemunor was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Not only did Newton have two vertical routes one-on-one down the field, but he had N'Keal Harry coming open on an incut in the middle of the field, plus two checkdowns but instead, Newton held the ball forever, got blasted by Anthony Chickillo and Jermaine Eluemunor got injured in the process. Newton has to throw the ball here. The sack knocked the Patriots from the edge of field-goal range and likely cost the team points.
Second quarter
1ST & 10 AT NE 19
(12:07) C. Newton pass short left to D.Byrd to NE 26 for 7 yards (M.Ojemudia). FUMBLES (M.Ojemudia), ball out of bounds at NE 26.
After a play-action fake sucks in the linebackers, Newton has Harry open on the post but he just doesn't throw it. He compounds the error by throwing late to Damiere Byrd.
1ST & 10 AT NE 49
(8:56) (Shotgun) C.Newton scrambles right end to DEN 49 for 2 yards (J.Simmons).
After playaction again, Newton has Julian Edelman wide open against the zone coverage at the 37, plus two options to check down. He takes neither and runs for a minimal gain.
2ND & 8 AT DEN 49
(8:07) C.Newton pass short left to I.Zuber pushed ob at DEN 33 for 16 yards (M.Ojemudia) [M.Reed].
Newton got away with this one — the pass easily could have been picked off for a touchdown — but the pass should have been much sooner to Isaiah Zuber on a low crosser (on the 45 in front of Newton).
3RD & 13 AT DEN 22
(5:27) (Shotgun) C.Newton pass incomplete short left to J.Edelman.
Newton was facing a blitz but instead of stepping into the throw and taking the hit, Newton's front foot was behind his right foot and he couldn't get anything on the incompletion to Edelman (19-yard line top) that might have had a chance to convert the first down.
1ST & 10 AT DEN 25(05:15)
(5:15) (Shotgun) C.Newton sacked at DEN 30 for -5 yards (M.Reed).
Before the pressure got there, Newton could have thrown with anticipation to Byrd in the bottom left, Harry was coming open on an in cut at the top, and Devin Asiasi was wide open as a checkdown to Newton's right, but apparently they're under strict orders not to throw to the rookie because he was open like this a lot.
1ST & 10 AT 50
(2:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to D.Byrd (M.Ojemudia).
Byrd runs a nice stutter-and-go route to the bottom and has a step on the corner, but Newton underthrows him while Edelman is open in the middle of the field. The play was there to Byrd but Newton didn't convert.
2ND & 10 AT DEN 24
(1:14) (Shotgun) C.Newton sacked at DEN 30 for -6 yards (M.Reed).
This is the most egregious error in the game and it could have been a game-winning touchdown as the Broncos bust a coverage in the middle of the field and Byrd is left all alone on a post. Newton sees him, but for some reason doesn't pull the trigger. This is reminiscent of the missed throw to Edelman that would have won the Seahawks game. Newton's now 0 for 2 in these spots.
4TH & 10 AT DEN 24
(1:03) (Shotgun) C.Newton pass incomplete short right to N.Harry [S.Harris].
The final throw wasn't a bad decision to Harry — he could have thrown to Byrd or Edelman as well — but the throw needed to be on the receiver, not outside of him. And Newton had plenty of time on the play clock (snapped with 12 remaining) to slow up the Broncos' safety blitz with an "Easy-Easy" call to stop the cadence and get the team out of a quick count, but Newton allowed them to continue on their running start, which made the pressure even tougher to deal with.
___________________
These are a boatload of missed chances left on the field. Converting any one of them would have allowed the Patriots to escape with a get-out-of-here victory. Convert most of them and the Patriots win this game going away.
Perhaps Newton was just really rusty. And it seemed like any progress he had made with checks and audibles were taken away in this game, likely due to the lack of on-field practice time. But there's no excuse to lose this game. The plays were there to be made, and Newton just didn't make them.
Now it's up to Josh McDaniels and Jedd Fisch to figure out why Newton is now making repeated mistakes. Perhaps they need to throw more to open the game to get Newton in a better rhythm. They likely need to rep and dial-up a play where Newton looks left and then just fires back to the right without any reading of the defense. But a big problem is Newton isn't executing some of the base plays in this offense — like bang-action off a run fake.
Perhaps, Newton is just being conservative and not trusting his instincts, and they need to encourage him to cut it loose. Whatever it is, the Patriots need better at the position because if Newton's last two starts are indeed a trend, the Patriots' season could be over before they even reach the midway point.
The positional ratings against the Broncos:
