NFL Notebook: Very few reasons for Patriots to rush into a Cam Newton extension, plus numbers that show Josh McDaniels' role

Since Cam Newton's monetary situation and future with the Patriots appear to be a popular topic after just two games — despite us getting clobbered back on Aug. 6 for saying the Patriots should do right by Newton and adjust his contract now (we still believe that and everything in that column) — we figured we ought to weigh in on the Extend Cam Now Campaign.

Outside of Newton loving life, never wanting to depart the sweet offensive bosom of Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick and taking a steep discount — we're talking the Later Tom Brady Deals around $20ish million per season — then we are a firm no on making Newton some sort of megadeal to be the Patriots' next franchise quarterback for, say, the next five seasons.

And despite popular opinion, waiting until after a great 2020 campaign — which is far from a certainty given Newton's injury history and the fact that the Patriots appear destined to run and throw him into a brick wall to carry this wheezing offense every week — does not mean the price tag is going to go up for Newton. And he's not "going to get paid" stupid money by another team.

In case you haven't noticed, Bill Belichick — not Newton — holds all the cards right now.

If Newton has a good, solid season — say the Patriots have a winning record, make the playoffs and Newton is NFL comeback player of the year — Newton is not going anywhere. No teams are going to get an opportunity to bid on Newton, despite 2021 shaping up to be a terrible year for free-agent QBs (seriously, go here and click on QBs for 2021).

Why? Because the Patriots can use the franchise tag.

If you think Belichick is just going to let Newton hit the open market, you're crazy.

So Newton, at a minimum, will be back in New England next year on a franchise tag that we're estimating to be around $29 million (average of top five QB cap figures for 2020 ... the complications are complicated, but let's put it there).

Is that a lot of money? Sure, especially in a year when cap space could be an issue. Will it anger Newton? Possibly, but probably not if he likes it in New England ... and the tag is fully guaranteed once he signs it.

If somebody wants to make a stupid trade offer for Newton, I'm sure Belichick would very much be willing to listen.

Ok, well that gets us through 2021 ... what about after that, don't we need Newton on an extension to make smart business decisions?

Not necessarily, and not if I were Belichick.

If Newton doesn't want to play ball on an extension by August under the 2021 tag, then we go through the '21 season and sees how he looks at the end of that season.

Then what?

You franchise Newton again for another top-five average or 120 percent of his 2021 tag. That would be, right now, around $35 million.

Man, that's a lot of money, no? Kind of un-Patriot-like.

Yes, it's a lot of money. But it's very possible the 2022 cap landscape looks vastly different after COVID and after the NFL starts getting rich on new TV and streaming deals (one report said the rights deals could increase up to 57 percent). Right now, $35 million is Carson Wentz territory. For the 2022 season, it could be Teddy Bridgewater money.

And then there's this, and this is the most important thing.

When you add up the embarrassing deal Newton is under for 2020, plus tags in '21 and '22, it comes out to three years and a total of $68 million — for an average of $22.7 million per season.

Basically, that's what they Patriots have been paying Brady the past couple years, plus what he would have made for, say, '20 and '21.



That's a great, great deal.

Is there a possible downside to this? Sure, Newton could get irritated — Randy Moss used to make sweet talk about only caring about winning too, for a few seasons — but he has no recourse. And, really, as opposed to this season when Newton has every right to complain he's already outperformed his contract, Newton couldn't really complain about making fully guaranteed top-five money at his position.

That's great, and makes sense, but what about 2023?

Newton will be 34 then — if he even makes it that long — with a lot of miles on him. Why would the Patriots want to do a deal with Newton past then, outside of cap maneuvering?

That is also the offseason when Jarrett Stidham is set to be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career.

And the Patriots will also have three more swipes at the draft by then.

So the options are really limitless in '23. And it makes a lot of sense — including financially — to just maintain the status quo with Newton with the franchise tag in the back pocket. The Patriots could always say, "Sure Cam, we'd love to do a deal ... we'll give you the tag money in '21 and '22, but for '23 you need to play ball with us ..."

Still think the smart move is for the Patriots to guarantee all of Newton's incentives right now to $7.5 million, plus keep a few incentives for MVP and Super Bowl appearances to get him to $10 million if the unlikely happens. That's a good bridge deal to set up the tag play.

It really makes very little sense — unless, like we said, Newton will play ball on a deal that averages less than $22.7 million per season — to enter into a long-term marriage with Newton when they have very real options to go year to year to the point when Newton might start to regress physically.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Doesn't sound like Mohamed Sanu was fond of his Patriots experience. Sanu met with the 49ers media for the first time this week and was asked why it didn't work out better. "I feel like it just wasn't a good fit," Sanu said. "Things happen the way they happen, and I'm not really looking to the past. I'm just focused on what I've got here in San Fran. I'm excited just to be a part of this team. ... This culture is just more my style. So, I'm excited for it. I'm just taking full advantage. I'm grateful for my time in New England. It taught me a lot. It just didn't gel out how I wanted."

2. The Patriots placed C David Andrews (thumb) and LB Josh Uche (foot) on IR, so they could return to face the 49ers after the bye on Oct. 25th. OL James Ferentz was signed to the active roster, and DL Nick Thurman and WR Isaiah Zuber were elevated from the practice squad for this week. According to sources, Ferentz is not believed to be in line to start at center for Andrews. The Patriots are likely to give Hjalte Froholdt his first career start at center.

3. These new NextGen Stats from the NFL are kind of nifty with all sorts of cool data. Like anything else — my stats, PFF, FootballOutsiders.com, etc. — they are a tool; no one is always right. But one of their stats was interesting to me: Completion Percentage Above Expectation. It's the difference between expected completion percentage and actual completion percentage. To me, the better the xComp (expected), the more the scheme is getting players open (or talent around him).

Top 5 xComp

1. Drew Brees 73.1
2. Patrick Mahomes 71.2
3. Ben Roethlisberger 69.7
4. Cam Newton 69.3
5. Philip Rivers 68.9
11. Tom Brady 67.6

To me, that tells me McDaniels is doing his job very well.

Best Completion Percentage Above Expectation

A good CPAE means the QB is making more plays than he should.

1. Russell Wilson 13.9
2. Lamar Jackson 12.2
3. Philip Rivers 8.5
4. Derek Carr 7.2
5. Ryan Fitzpatrick 6.7
15. Cam Newton 2.2
26. Tom Brady -2.8

This is more backup for McDaniels, and shows Brady isn't lifting up a lesser coaching staff.

Worst Completion Percentage Above Expectation

This means the QB is leaving plays on the field.

1. Dwayne Haskins -10.6
2. Carson Wentz -8.8
3. Drew Brees -8.4
4. Patrick Mahomes -6.6
5. Sam Darnold -5.0

4. Those wondering about Sony Michel, maybe he doesn't even get what's blocked. Going back to his rookie season, Michel's Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt have been ... below average:

2018: -0.23
2019: -0.2
2020: -0.1

I guess you could say he's improving a little each season.

5. I pretty much laid out my thoughts on the Raiders — stop Josh Jacobs, and make Derek Carr beat you with someone besides TE Darren Waller — and I don't think the Patriots will have any trouble scoring.

BetUs.com Line: Patriots -6, o/u 47

Bedard's Pick: Patriots 35, Raiders 17

Week 3 NFL Picks vs. BetUS spreads

Last week: 10-5 (66.7%). Best bet: 1-0.

Patriots -6
Bills -1.5
Steelers -4.5
Giants +3.5
Vikings +2.5
Washington +7
Eagles -4 (BEST BET)
Falcons -3
Jets +12
Chargers -6.5
Cardinals -6
Broncos +6
Cowboys +5
Packers +3
Mon.: Ravens -3.5