McAdam: Do Red Sox have the foundation of a much-improved rotation already on hand?

In the last 17 games, long after effectively falling out of contention in the American League playoff race, the Red Sox are a bordering-on-respectable 10-7.

Surely, it was not happenstance that their improved play has coincided with an uptick in the performance of their starting rotation.

The return to health for Nathan Eovaldi, the continued consistency of Martin Perez and the emergence of both rookie Tanner Houck and the recently acquired Nick Pivetta resulted in the Sox compiling a 2.89 ERA over that stretch.

Freed of the burden of digging out from early-inning deficits as they were for most of this season, the Red Sox managed to play winning baseball -- admittedly, for a period lasting two and a half weeks.

All of which has led to some renewed optimism that the Sox could, without major moves this winter, be on the cusp of contending again in 2021. Certainly, the lineup is capable of again being a better-than-average offense. The bullpen needs improvement and the right side of the infield is uncertain, though both Christian Arroyo (second base) and Bobby Dalbec (first base) have spent the month of September staking their claim for playing time next season.

Still, the Sox are, like so many other teams, dependent on realizing better results from their starting pitchers in order to entertain thoughts of contention for 2021.

By definition, the Boston rotation stands to improve next season. Chris Sale will be returning from Tommy John surgery and the expectation is that Eduardo Rodriguez, following his scare with myocarditis, will be cleared to return to the mound.

But importantly, Sale almost certainly won't be ready when the regular season gets underway on April 1. Typically, recovery time from Tommy John surgery is 12-15 months and Sale underwent the procedure in the final days of March. Theoretically, Sale could be available for the start of the season, but it's far more likely that he's cleared in May or somewhat later.

The same uncertain timetable surrounds Rodriguez, about whom little is known. And even if Rodriguez fully rebounds from the inflammation around the heart that wiped out his entire 2020 season, the Sox will want to carefully monitor his workload.

Two holdovers from this year's staff -- Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez -- are also expected back. Eovaldi will forever have to disprove that he's not durable, but when healthy, gives the Sox someone who consistently keeps them in games. (Take away one horrid outing against the Yankees this year and his ERA is more-than-respectable 2.92 ERA. Similarly, it seems a given that the Sox will exercise their $6.25 million club option to retain Perez, who has been their most consistent starter this season.)

In time, the return of Sale and Rodriguez will have the added benefit of pushing Eovaldi and Perez into more suitable roles toward the middle or back of the rotation instead of the front two spots they were forced, through injuries to others, to occupy in 2020.

Then there's Houck (zero earned runs over two starts) and a re-fashioned Pivetta (five strong innings in his debut Tuesday night). In admittedly the smallest of possible sample sizes, both have flashed potential.

For a rookie all of two major starts into his career, Houck has been notably unfazed by his surroundings or the step-up in competition. His mid-90s fastball and a plus-slider form the basis of a good repertoire, though his splitter remains very much a work in progress.

Pivetta was reprogrammed in Pawtucket. The hope is that his athleticism and frame will allow him to repeat his delivery and he can finally command both his two-seam and four-seam fastballs, then throw either a curve or slider of those. If nothing else, he projects as a sturdy back-of-the-rotation innings eater.

For both Houck and Pivetta, it's important not to over-react to a handful of impressive starts in an environment that is currently pressure-free. The list of pitchers who impress in September and flop the very next year is a long one.

Even with those important caveats, using that inventory, the Sox could go into next year with six competent starters.

However, as if it hadn't become patently obvious in a season in which the Red Sox ran through 16 different starters in the first 56 games, depth is essential -- especially when two starters can't, some six-plus months ahead of time, be counted on for the early part of the season.

With no one else in the upper reaches of the farm system likely to challenge for a spot in the rotation in the first half of next year, the Red Sox could pick from an assortment of journeyman swingman -- Chris Mazza, for one - as other early-season options.

More likely, Chaim Bloom will venture into the free-agent market to find more dependable back-end starters who can help the Sox navigate the early going until Sale and Rodriguez are cleared for action. As things stand, there's a talent deficit that won't allow for the Sox to assemble a full rotation from within, ready to go on April 1.

Still, odd as it may seem,  there may be fewer necessary additions that might be expected for a team which will need a furious rally in the final week to escape the bottom of the division and whose rotation has compiled a 5.46 ERA this season.