McAdam: Twelve years after the last one, who will throw the next Red Sox no-hitter?

No-hitters are notoriously unpredictable events.

Roger Clemens never threw one. But over the course of Clemens' career, the not-so-legendary Tommy Greene and Bud Smith each did.

Sandy Koufax had four. Pedro Martinez, whose dominance over the span of several seasons earned him comparisons with Koufax, never had one. (Though Martinez once took a perfect game into extra innings, he lost that attempt and the game, in the 10th inning and was officially never credited with one).

Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux, first-ballot Hall of Famers, never achieved the feat. Oddly, Mike Fiers and Homer Bailey each did it twice.

Go figure.

Tuesday marked the 12th anniversary of the last Red Sox no-hitter, thrown by Jon Lester, against the Kansas City Royals. It was the second no-no by Red Sox pitchers in the span of nine months, with Clay Buchholz having thrown on the previous September against the Baltimore Orioles.

Lester's no-hitter gave the Red Sox four in this first decade of this century, taking place in a seven-year span. When Hideo Nomo turned the trick on Opening Night, 2001, it ended a 36-year no-hitter drought for the Red Sox as a franchise that dated all the way back to 1965, when Dave Morehead last tossed one.

They're hard to throw and even harder to understand. For the first 49 seasons of their existence, the New York Mets never had a no-hitter, despite boasting a tradition of great starting pitchers (Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Dwight Gooden, David Cone). Finally, Johan Santana became the first in 2012. In true Mets fashion, it essentially ended his career, thanks to his 134 pitches that manager Terry Collins, with great reluctance, permitted.

(Also in true Mets fashion: Seaver, Ryan, Gooden and Cone each pitched no-hitters....after leaving the Mets to pitch elsewhere).

To this day, the San Diego Padres, whose history dates back to 1969, still do not have a single no-hitter to their credit.

Strange, right?

All of which got us to thinking: who is most likely to throw the next Red Sox hitter?

Keep in mind that, even as strikeouts climb to historic levels, it's getting harder and harder to throw no-nos. Since the start of 2016, only five one-pitcher no-hitters have been recorded, with teams more reluctant than ever to allow starters to go past 105 or so pitches. (There have been three other combined no-hitters in that same span, including two that involved four different pitchers).

Some guesses:

1. Chris Sale.

We can say with some certitude that it won't come this season, since Sale is sidelined for all of 2020 and a portion of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. But assuming he makes a successful comeback (the recovery rate from Tommy John sits just below 90 percent by most measures), Sale is still the best bet.

The easiest way to record no-hitters is to keep the ball out of play. That's why Nolan Ryan and Koufax -- two of the most dominant strikeout artists of the post-expansion era -- threw 11 between them. Even in an off-year in 2019, Sale still managed to average an astounding 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings. When he's not overpowering hitters and recording strikeouts, Sale's stuff is still plenty good to induce a lot of weak contact -- another helpful ingredient when it comes to not allowing hits.

In 2013, while with the White Sox, Sale tossed a one-hit shutout against the Angels and was actually perfect deep into the game, having retired the first 19 hitters he faced before Mike Trout spoiled the bid with a one-out single in the seventh. It would be the only baserunner allowed in the game by Sale.

2. Eduardo Rodriguez

Rodriguez took a big step forward in 2019, establishing career highs in wins (19), innings (203.1) and strikeouts (213). No less an authority than Sale has said that Rodriguez has the best pure stuff on the staff, with a plus-plus slider and changeup to go along with a fastball he throws in the mid-90s.

But efficiency has been an issue for Rodriguez. Sometimes, he finds himself approaching 90 pitches by the fifth inning, making complete games -- never mind no-hit bids -- tough to envision. In fact, across 122 starts in the big leagues, Rodriguez doesn't own a single complete game.

If he's able to improve his efficiency and record quicker outs, Rodriguez has the repertoire to someday join the no-hit club. If, however, he doesn't learn to be more economical, given the caution that teams use in monitoring pitch counts, it's hard to envision him being left in a game long enough to accomplish the feat.

3. Field

There are no other logical candidates in the Red Sox rotation. There's nothing in Martin Perez's resume to suggest there's one in his future and that goes double for Ryan Weber, who finds it hard to miss bats (career WHIP: 1.294; K-per-9IP: 5.7).

More likely, if it doesn't come from Sale or Rodriguez, the next Red Sox no-hitter will come from some hard-throwing prospect who's yet to sniff a major league mound. Lefty fireballer Jay Groome, who has already made it back from Tommy John surgery and Bryan Mata, arguably the best of any Sox prospect (relatively) close to the big leagues, represents the best bets in this "futures'' category.