McAdam: Second-day thoughts on Chris Sale and the resulting fallout

Some thoughts on the news that Chris Sale will soon undergo Tommy John surgery, its impact on the 2020 Red Sox team and beyond:

1.  Getting this surgery done last fall wasn't the right course of action.

It's easy to second-guess and say that the Red Sox wasted valuable recovery time by not having Sale undergo surgery last August and September. Had they done so, Sale would be roughly seven month into his recovery time and on schedule to be perfectly healthy for Opening Day 2021.

But that ignores some basic facts.

First, as chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom noted Thursday night, unlar collateral ligament transfer surgery is not a minor procedure. It requires a long (12-18 months) recovery period, and while advancements have been made over the decades, it's not without its risks. It's not, in other words, fool-proof and shouldn't be undertaken lightly.



Said Bloom: "It's not something you want to do unless you really feel that you're at the point where that's what you need to do in order to return to the field....Everything that went on last summer -- the symptoms, the imaging -- it seemed very reasonable to me to take that time off and try to rest, try to strengthen everything and hope for a successful path forward. And everything up until that time in early March, there was every indication that he was doing great. So it's not something you should jump into unless you feel like you do not have a better option.''

"There was a possibility that he could start throwing again, get into games and have more discomfort. That's exactly what happened. So of course, you know it's a possibility, but it did not seem to me to be anywhere close to a certainty (that surgery would be needed) based on what I knew.''

Additionally, it's impossible for forecast when surgery is an evetuality. When the Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka from Japan before the 2014 season, they soon learned that he was suffering from a partially-torn UCL. Since then, Tanaka has made 163 starts over the last six years. After his rookie year, he's averaged more than 28 starts per season for the Yanks. What if they had mistakenly urged him to undergo the procedure because it seemed "inevitable'' that he would require it?

2. Sale seemed to know this was likely a few weeks ago.

Sale did all the right things over the winter, strengthening the elbow, resting and beginning his throwing program. Even early in spring, his bullpens were impressive and free of any red flags.

But when he experienced soreness the day after a routine 15-pitch live BP session on March 1, then spoke with reporters a few days later, he couldn't hide his disappointment. He almost seemed resigned to the inevitable.

You could see it in the body language, sense it in his tone. But most of all, you could hear it in his words, full of dread.

Asked about the prospect of Tommy John surgery hanging over his head, Sale admitted: "That’s what the future holds for me, that’s what we’ll determine in another two to three weeks. I’m going to know in another two weeks. I guess we’ll find out...Tommy John’s been a factor in my life for 20 years now. Obviously, with these things happening, it’s on the table.''

And so it is.

3. The Red Sox rolled the dice by giving Sale his contract extension when they did.

When the Sox signed Sale to a five-year, $145 million contract extension almost exactly a year ago, there was a significant element of risk.

Sale was coming off a season in which he missed time in the final two months with shoulder inflammation and was far from himself in the postseason.

The Sox thought by signing him when they did, they'd be saving some money (the $29 million AAV was indeed below market value at the time) by taking him off the market eight months before he could qualify for free agency. Sale wanted to stay with the Sox, in no small part because of his off-season home's proximity to Fort Myers, enabling him an extra two months with his family every spring training, and because he believed they'd be competitive virtually every season (the Sox had won the A.L. East and qualified for the postseason in his first two years in Boston).

So, yes, the Sox took a chance. But signing pitchers who are 30 or older (Sale turned 30 a week after his deal became official) is fraught with risk. It's a fact of baseball life. The Yankees signed Gerrit Cole to a deal worth more than double in value that of Sale's, and one which lasts for nine years. Think there might be some significant down time because of injury for Cole over the life of a deal which lasts almost a decade, almost all of which take place in Cole's 30s? I'd say that's a safe bet.

The Yankees knew of the risk involved and made it anyway. Simply put, it's the cost of doing business.

It's also a reminder of the need for teams to develop their own pitching - to avoid these expensive and risk-laden deals for pitchers who already have plenty of mileage on their valuable arms.

4. Bloom hinted this bit of bad news could present him with an opportunity.

When I asked Bloom about the potential for Sale's surgery to alter the team's approach toward the 2020 season -- assuming there is one, that is -- he delivered, at first, a pro forma response.

''Of course, said Bloom, "we want to do everything we can to compete this season and we still have that outlook.''

Sure. That's the "have-to-say-this'' part of the exercise.

But what Bloom said next was, I thought, encouraging.

"But we need to make sure that we’re looking big picture as well,'' he said. "What that’s going to mean as we go forward, it’s hard to say...''

Here's what it should say: make us an offer. For Jackie Bradley Jr. For Mitch Moreland. For anyone whom the Sox don't envision being part of, say, the 2022 team.

Even the most die-hard Red Sox fan understands what the loss of Sale means for 2020. It's virtually impossible to envision a path to October (or, as the case could well be, November).

Use that license to begin focusing on re-stocking the system, with eye toward 2022 and beyond.