One tweak the Celtics should make with Marcus Smart

Marcus Smart entered the 2019-20 regular season with the expectation of being the sixth man for this top-heavy Celtics squad. That plan has only happened in limited windows all year long, as Smart has started over 75 percent of the games (39 of 53) that he has been healthy for due to injuries to numerous members of the starting five at various points of the season.

Instead of leading a second unit and serving as a secondary scoring option when getting chances to play with the starters, Smart has been forced into a bigger offensive role on top of his valuable defensive duties.

The end result has been a mixed bag for the Celtics nearly 75 percent of the way through the season. Smart is averaging a career-high 13.5 ppg and knocking down an acceptable 34.8 percent of his 3s despite a significant uptick in volume. That combined with a career-low turnover ratio has turned Smart in a net positive for the offense the majority of the time he’s on the floor.

As Smart has started more and more however in the past few weeks, a concerning trend for the Celtics has started for the veteran point guard. Smart is treating himself more like a featured performer in Boston’s offense and that’s a problem considering where his shots are being taken from.

75 players in the NBA are averaging 11.9 or more field goal attempts per game this season. Smart ranks 74th on that list in FG percentage, knocking down just 38 percent of his attempts per game. The only other player behind on the list is second-year Hornets guard Devonte Graham.

That type of inefficiency has been a contributor to the Celtics’ offensive woes in recent weeks. Injuries have put a bigger onus on Smart to score and that combined with Kemba Walker’s struggles, has led to some rough scoring nights. However, even with taking those two factors into account, Smart is still taking a bigger percentage of the shot pie that he’s warranted to. A good example of this is within Boston's usage numbers:

Season usage rate

Tatum: 27.9
Walker: 27.3
Brown: 24.5
Hayward: 20.4
Smart: 18.7
Kanter 18.5
Edwards: 16.8
Wanamaker: 15.2
Theis: 14.6
Green 13.3
R Williams: 12.2
Langford 11.6
G Williams: 11.0
Ojeleye: 8.6

Post All-Star Break Usage Rate (10 games)

Tatum: 30.6
Walker 28.6 (4 games)
Brown: 24.8 (6 games)
Smart: 22.2
Hayward: 20.5 (8 games)
R Williams: 17.2 (4 games)
Theis: 16.2
Kanter: 15.7
Wanamaker: 12.3
Langford: 11.2
Ojeleye: 10.4
G Williams: 7.8
Green: 6.5

Injuries may have explained a slight uptick in Smart’s attempts during this span, but having the worst high volume shooter on the team takes more than 22 percent of a team’s shots when he’s on the floor is a recipe for problems. Smart has no business taking as many shots as a guy like Hayward, something that becomes crystal clear when you look at their averages in the last 10 games.

Smart: 36.3 mpg, 36.9 FG%, 33.3 3PT%, 16.0 FGA/G (3rd on team), 9.0 3PTA/G (team-high)

Hayward: 34.3 mpg, 49.6 FG%, 38.9 3PT%  14.1 FGA/G (4th on team), 4.5 3PTA/G (5th on team)

In related news, the Celtics’ top-5 offense on the season has ranked just average (16th in offensive efficiency) over the last 10 games. Smart isn’t solely to blame for that downturn (Kemba has been bad, bench still can't score most nights, injuries haven’t helped) but his increased inefficient shot volume has been a factor.

That’s not to say Smart’s offense is not important to this team. He still has a terrific net rating during that 10-game stretch of subpar offense because he’s defending well and still creating nicely for others with a couple of standout shooting nights mixed in. His ability to take and make (sometimes) big shots late (i.e. the game-winner against the Pacers) is important as well. However, the numbers don’t lie in regards to his usage when it comes to team success.

Celtics record in relation to Smart shot attempts:

13 shots or more: 8-12
12 shots and under: 26-7
8 shots or under: 12-1

Contrast those records to the C’s other wings when the Celtics are able to get them more shot attempts than their season average.

When Hayward takes 16 shots or more: 10-5
When Tatum takes 21 shots or more: 13-4
When Brown takes 16 shots or more: 19-6

Smart’s usage should go down when Brown does make his return to the lineup later this week from a hamstring injury but it’s essential for Smart and the coaching staff to ensure he knows his place in the offensive pecking order in the coming months. One of the greatest strengths for Smart last season was his willingness to shoot less and take higher percentage shot attempts (i.e. open ones) when he did end up firing.

A lack of consistent production from the bench and injuries to the starting five have led Smart to play more hero ball lately and get back into some poor early career habits (i.e. contested layups and floaters).

We’ve seen his willingness to recognize his role on this front as a spot scorer last year (one of the few bright spots on that team all year). Once Brown gets healthy, Smart needs to become that guy again, since if he’s taking more shots than Brown or Hayward in the upcoming weeks and months, the Celtics may be making an early exit this postseason.