Five pressing questions for Celtics as they begin stretch run

With the final two months of the Celtics season set to kick off on Friday night in Minnesota, there are plenty of intriguing subplots surrounding this squad in the wake of a stellar start to the 2019-20 campaign. What should Celtics fans be watching for as the stakes are raised over the final 28 games of the regular season? Here’s a closer exploration of five questions that will have a significant impact down the stretch for the team, both now and in the future.

1. What can Robert Williams give the Celtics?

The big man has not played in a game in 2020, sitting out over three months of action (Dec. 6 was his last game played) as he recovers from a bone edema in his left hip that was officially diagnosed on Dec. 16. The Celtics training staff have taken a cautious approach with the 22-year-old to increase the odds he’s available for the stretch run and that hope may be coming to fruition in the coming weeks. Williams was cleared for full workouts just before the All-Star Break and Brad Stevens said he will be taking part in full practice starting on Wednesday.

“There was no limit on my jumps,” Williams told reporters in Oklahoma City last week of his first full workout post-injury. “I could dunk as much as I want, run as much as I want. It’s really like the first time they haven’t been telling me I can’t jump, or you only get 20 jumps a day or something. So just being as explosive as I remember I was is just a great feeling.”

The team will continue to take its time easing Williams back into action over the next few weeks but the end of the tunnel appears near for the second-year center.

“I think we’re still shooting around March 1, give or take a few days here or there,” Danny Ainge said on The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich last week of a potential return timetable. “But I think that’s still a target date.”

While there’s no question that the C’s have found their groove without Williams in the fold, they also did manage an impressive 14-5 record when he was healthy in the first two months of the season. Daniel Theis has solidified himself as a starting center for this group but Enes Kanter has looked hobbled with a hip injury in recent weeks while Vincent Poirier has failed to emerge as a reliable option at center. With foul trouble looming as a continuous issue for bigs like Theis and Grant Williams, Rob Williams should give Brad Stevens an athletic rim running and shot-blocking alternative for certain matchups.

Williams is averaging 3.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game this season but a closer look at his on/off numbers showed the Celtics have actually been better defensively when he’s off the floor (albeit in a limited sample size of 269 minutes), largely due to Williams’ propensity to gamble for blocks, leaving himself out of position. Can Williams stay healthy and get closer to the defensive potential that has the Celtics’ brass giddy about his future? Or will the team be better off with going with Theis/Kanter/Grant Williams at center most nights? One of Brad Stevens’ biggest priorities will be to figure out in March how much he can count on Rob Williams to contribute to that mix.

2. Do the Celtics add a free agent on the buyout market?

While NBA players must be waived by their current team and become free agents by March 1st in order to be playoff eligible with a new team, there is no hard deadline for the Celtics to add a body to their roster for the postseason until the end of the regular season. That’s not to say they will wait that long to make an upgrade. Some names (Tristan Thompson) will be targets immediately if they are bought out, even though the C’s will be heavy competition for a big like that. The C’s may be patient in adding to their depth chart depending on how things look over the next month. The health and effectiveness of Rob Williams could prove to be a critical factor in determining whether another traditional center needs to be added to the mix as depth at the bottom of the roster. An injury to any of the wings spots would create an urgent need for some veteran depth there given the lack of experience in that area at the back-end of the rotation.

For the moment, Ainge is taking a pass on names like Evan Turner, Dion Waiters and Isaiah Thomas and I’d expect that stance to continue in the coming weeks. There will be more appealing names to shake free as more teams fall out of the playoff race before March 1st. The best fit for the C’s from a perimeter perspective in my opinion? Wayne Ellington if he gets cut loose by the Knicks. He's a spot-up shooter, knows his role, won’t rock the boat. Keep an eye on teams like Detroit, Washington and Phoenix ahead of the deadline as all three have useful veterans (Markieff Morris, Reggie Jackson, Langston Galloway, Ian Mahinmi) on expiring deals that could appeal to the Celtics and other contenders around the league.

3. How strong of a push do the Celtics make for the No. 2 seed versus strategic rest?

The Celtics managed to create some separation from themselves from Miami, Philadelphia and Indiana in the East playoff race with 11 wins in their last 13 games heading into the All-Star Break. That impressive run though was no match for the Raptors’ 15-game winning streak however as the C’s still find themselves 1.5 games back of the crucial two seed in the East. Boston holds the season series edge at the moment (2-1) against the Raptors with one game left to come in Toronto next month but it’s evident both of these teams will be hungry to face off with a likely sub .500 opponent (Brooklyn or Orlando) in the first round rather than a possible 50-win squad in Indiana, Philadelphia or Miami. Both Toronto and Boston have similar strengths of schedule remaining (tied for 12th hardest in the league) over the final 28 games so it’s going to be a lengthy potential sprint between the two squads for the No. 2 spot.

The question that Stevens will need to tackle is how heavily he will lean on his star talent to achieve that goal. Kemba Walker has battled a sore knee all year and his minutes will likely need to be monitored all year closely at the risk of making it worse. Will Stevens keep his foot on the gas whenever possible with Walker to win games or will he try to keep him close to 30 minutes at the potential risk of costing Boston some regular-season wins? How much will strategic rest be worked in for Walker and other veterans? Given the lack of depth on this roster, it will be a fine line to walk for the coaching and training staff since too much rest could be the difference between the No. 2 seed and a far tougher road to the Eastern Conference Finals.

4. What’s the best Celtics crunch time lineup?

The Celtics have left no doubt who they think the best five players on their roster are (Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Walker) but that five-man unit has hardly seen the light of day this season. A flurry of injuries to everyone in that group has helped limit those five to just six games played together all year long (15 minutes total). The very limited sample size has not been promising (-0.8 net rating), which leaves some question whether this will ever be a consistent lineup for Brad Stevens during crunch time in the postseason. The head coach has wisely opted to stick with one true big on the floor at all times and that’s helped produce an elite scoring unit with the starting five (121 points per 100 possessions is best in the NBA among lineups with 175 minutes or more). Some good health among the wings may give Stevens some more opportunity to give Boston’s five best players more time on the court together but Daniel Theis has shown himself to be a capable closer with alternative options on the sidelines.

“I know that, certainly it has been unique because we’ve had so many different guys out, and right when we feel like we’re getting healthy, we have a unique one,” Stevens said of the first half. “That's been the frustrating part at times, but our guys have done a great job of holding down the fort. Our best players have raised their level with guys out and been even better on those nights.”

There haven’t been too many close games yet that has resulted in one of the best five Celtics sitting in crunch time (largely due to injuries) but someone is going to have to be the odd man out if this team stays healthy. The bet here is it will be Smart or Brown depending on the matchup but this will be an area to watch how Stevens handles for the rest of a tough schedule in February.

5. Can Jayson Tatum sustain his All-Star leap?

Jayson Tatum was having the best year of his career even before he turned into Boston’s leading scorer over the last month. With Kemba Walker slowed down with a sore knee, Tatum has not only emerged as Boston’s top scorer but a more efficient one than ever (25.0 ppg, 47 percent shooting), carrying the C’s scoring load as the Celtics have cruised to 11 wins in their last 13 games heading into the All-Star Break. With the Eastern Conference looking as loaded as its ever been in the past decade when it comes to star power, the Celtics are going to need a player or two to reach a different level this postseason in order to have a realistic chance of making the NBA Finals. Tatum’s growth on most ends of the floor in 2020 has provided optimism that he has the ability to emerge as a top-5 player in the East and help carry Boston into the postseason. Consistency remains the biggest challenge for him and other key leaders of this team (Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown) to help make up for a lack of proven depth at the bottom of the roster. For now, though, the Celtics look like they have five players that they believe can play with anyone and perhaps a player in Tatum who can go toe-to-toe with the best. If Thursday’s win against the Clippers was any indication, Tatum may ahead of schedule on this front.