Would a Clint Capela trade for the Celtics be feasible ahead of deadline?

Trade deadline week is officially in full swing and a new rumor kicked off things on Sunday night with the report from Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com that the Rockets are shopping 6-foot-10 center Clint Capela to Eastern Conference teams for assets that can lead to an upgrade on the wing for Houston.

UPDATE (3 p.m. Monday): Wojnarowski reports the Celtics are one of the teams talking trade with Houston on Capela. 

Capela is in the midst of a strong year averaging 13.9 points, 13.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks through 39 games this season. He’s missed the last three games with a heel injury but that isn’t expected to keep him out for too long. We’ve talked about Capela on BSJ before as a potential Celtics trade target and with him back on the market months later, it’s worth considering the fit for a double-double machine who has held his own quite well in recent matchups with Joel Embiid (30 points in a January win over Philly).

What’s the Capela contract look like?

The big man signed a five-year contract back in 2018 so he is under team control until 2022-23 which is the main reason he should hold good value on the trade market. His cap number is only $14.9 million this year and he has modest raises through the length of his deal each year ($1.1 million) along with some incentives (rebounding rate, making Conference Finals) that could raise his cap number by another $1 million each season.

The Contract

2019-20: $14.9 million
2020-21: $16 million
2021-22: $17.1 million
2022-23: $18.2 million

That’s a very appealing deal for a guy that is just entering his prime at age 25. The question now however is how exactly could the C’s structure a deal to land him with limited movable salary on the roster?

POSSIBLE CAPELA SALARY MATCHING OPTIONS

Trade one of Smart or Hayward

This is the easiest path to a deal but the least likely one in my opinion. Hayward’s earning over $30 million while Smart is on a similar deal to Capela, making modest money through 2022. The Rockets are shopping for wing help for a reason with their big man and Smart/Hayward are crucial parts of the C’s 33-14 start to the season. When it comes to the postseason, would you rather have Capela or Smart on your roster? How about Hayward or Capela? Outside of a matchup with the Sixers, Hayward/Smart is the right choice in both of those scenarios, especially when you consider how well Daniel Theis/Enes Kanter has been holding down the center position all year long. Boston’s depth on the wing/backcourt gets very thin in a hurry without one of Hayward/Smart playing big minutes and bringing aboard Capela for one of them is simply a trade that produces a slight upgrade at one position (center) for a big downgrade at another (guard/wing) for Boston.

Is there a way to acquire Capela without giving up Hayward or Smart? The answer is yes if the C’s are able to expand the deal beyond two teams.

Packaging Kanter/Poirier for a player to flip

In order to get to match Capela’s $14.9 million salary for this season, the Celtics would need to send out a player(s) earning at least $9.9 million to make the math work. That’s tough initially with the C’s current roster since it would involve giving up at least 3-4 players to make the math work. The front office isn’t going to sell low on high potential young guys like Romeo Langford or Rob Williams to make the money work.

However, the C’s can get a little creative team if they bring in a third team to help make the math work. Some base salary would be needed in this scenario, so let’s say Enes Kanter and Vincent Poirier are part of a hypothetical offer. Those two are making a combined $7.2 million, which means the C’s could take back up to $12.2 million in any deal involving the two of them.

While that’s not enough to get to Capela’s number, there are a number of expiring contracts available across the NBA that are worth $10-12 million and could be had in a trade. Players like Andre Roberson ($10.7 million), Courtney Lee ($12.7 million) and Miles Plumlee ($12.5 million) aren’t playing so their teams would be happy to give them up to cut salary, especially if it involved landing a minor asset like a second-round pick or potentially just Kanter.

For this trade, let’s say the C’s go after Roberson in a three-team deal. They trade Kanter/Poirier to Oklahoma City for Roberson and then the C’s flip Roberson immediately with draft compensation to the Rockets for Capela. Roberson’s salary is close enough to match with Capela (within $5 million) so the math works. There's still a big issue in that hypothetical trade though.

What would Capela be worth in draft compensation?

This is the pressing question that the C’s would have to tackle. Capela would be a nice long-term answer at center with a salary that fits a fourth or fifth scoring option in the starting lineup over the long-term. He’s in his prime at age 25 and is a terrific finisher around the rim, giving the C’s a great rim-running threat and offensive rebounder.

However, on the offensive end, dunks and putbacks is about all Capela does. Ninety-nine percent of his shot attempts come within 10 feet so he doesn’t even present the risk of a jump shot to defenses, even in the midrange. His passing skills are subpar and he isn’t much of a factor in the post so he’s essentially a one-trick pony on that end of the floor.

Defensively, Capela would be great to battle the likes of Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokokunmpo in spots but he also struggles defending shooting bigs on the perimeter, something he is going to run into plenty across the East’s elite teams.

I guess the biggest question out of all this is how much of an upgrade would Capela truly be over Theis/Rob Williams for now and the future. Despite his injuries, team sources insist to BSJ that they are very high on Rob Williams’ ability and his ceiling is essentially Capela with better passing over the long-term. Factor in the strong two-way play of Daniel Theis and his modest salary ($5 million) for next season and it’s hard to justify giving up the kind of draft compensation the Rockets would probably want to make the deal.

Should the Celtics do it for their own first-round pick or the Bucks first-round pick? Perhaps. Should they do it for two first-round picks or the Memphis 2020 pick? That’s where I would pump the brakes if I was Danny Ainge. Capela is a nice player but he’s not necessarily one that is worth emptying your asset collection for (while also giving up Kanter). On the flip side, the Rockets aren’t going to dump Capela unless they get an asset with good value to produce a wing upgrade elsewhere. The No. 30 pick is probably not enough on that front to get them to pull the trigger.

Money concerns over the long-term for Celtics

The other variable at play here is the C’s long-term payroll. Capela is a good value contract but that’s still a sizable chunk of change to spend at the center spot with so much money committed on the wings. Assuming Gordon Hayward opts into his $34 million player option next year, having Capela on the books would send the C’s well into the luxury tax and may force the C’s to move on from one of their core pieces preemptively to avoid a gigantic bill for ownership.

Would the C’s be better off keeping someone like Hayward for the long-term at $25 million per year (if he signs an extension) or have Capela manning the middle for $16 million per year after this season? There’s not a clear answer to this question right now but when you factor in the draft compensation the Celtics would have to give up to get Capela in the first place, I’d lean towards avoiding that type of deal since it limits future flexibility.

Allocating resources to the center position is happening less and less in the NBA for non-All-Star level talent. As teams play smaller at all five positions, there should be more centers available in the future at bargain-basement prices in free agency. With a couple intriguing cheap internal options in Theis/Rob Williams along with a rookie showing some potential at playing stretch five (Grant Williams), giving up key assets for Capela is a move I don’t see the Celtics making.